TRUMP preparing YUGE campaign ad blitz!

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/12/28/trump-plots-big-tv-ad-blitz-that-could-change-campaign-landscape.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Torie]

Maybe Trump is panicking, after reading Larry Sabato's article. Trump's problem is that while his base likes to make noise, and his trolls even more noise, his base has some trouble actually showing up to vote. Trump's a loser Lief - perhaps a hyperactive loser, but a loser nonetheless. Deal with it. Perhaps it's time to move your troll game over to Cruz. Just a thought.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Maybe Trump is panicking, after reading Larry Sabato's article. Trump's problem is that while his base likes to make noise, and his trolls even more noise, his base has some trouble actually showing up to vote. Trump's a loser Lief - perhaps a hyperactive loser, but a loser nonetheless. Deal with it. Perhaps it's time to move your troll game over to Cruz. Just a thought.

Outside IA, Trump has a wide enough lead that if a decent chunk of his base stays home, he still wins.

[Torie]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

[Torie]

Maybe Trump is panicking, after reading Larry Sabato's article. Trump's problem is that while his base likes to make noise, and his trolls even more noise, his base has some trouble actually showing up to vote. Trump's a loser Lief - perhaps a hyperactive loser, but a loser nonetheless. Deal with it. Perhaps it's time to move your troll game over to Cruz. Just a thought.

Outside IA, Trump has a wide enough lead that if a decent chunk of his base stays home, he still wins.

Wins a plurality - for awhile.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

Yes, Torie, there's a lot of very violent, classist sentiment from the elite classes against Trump's supporters, I'm well aware of that. But unfortunately for them, a poor man's vote still counts for just as much as a rich man's, in this country.

[Torie]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

Yes, Torie, there's a lot of very violent, classist sentiment from the elite classes against Trump's supporters, I'm well aware of that. But unfortunately for them, a poor man's vote still counts for just as much as a rich man's, in this country.

Indeed (well the "violent" bit is just another piece of chocolate out of that box of yours, but whatever) ... if they bother to vote. This group tends to vote less than blacks in the middle of a swamp somewhere in Mississippi. One would think a fair number of them must be illegal aliens or something. Their turnout rate reminds one of Hispanics.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

In what world does the GOP come down to a 2 horse race that requires a majority at any meaningful stage of the game. They're struggling to find a 2nd horse as it is!

[Torie]

In what world does the GOP come down to a 2 horse race that requires a majority at any meaningful stage of the game. They're struggling to find a 2nd horse as it is!

Be patient.

[Likely Voter]

Well dipping into his own pocket to buy actual TV spots was the last step to proving he is really 'in it'. Although waiting this long also shows a level of amateurishness. As of now the other campaigns and Super PACs have already reserved $10s of millions in ad space in the early states for January, February and even March. The Trump campaign has yet to reserve any, so once they finally pull the trigger they are going to get a lot less bang for their bucks.   In some places like NH, there may also be a limit to being able to buy any at all, or if they do, it will have to be on Boston stations where most of the viewers arent even voters, making it even less efficient.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

Why would a decent number of people answer yes to the question "Are you planning to vote in the Republican primary", if they aren't 100% committed? Wouldn't they just say "not sure"?

[Torie]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

Why would a decent number of people answer yes to the question "Are you planning to vote in the Republican primary", if they aren't 100% committed? Wouldn't they just say "not sure"?

No, non voters tend to think that they will vote, and certainly don't want to confess to somebody on the phone that they will probably not be exercising their franchise. In General elections, it's less difficult to winnow out the liars, or wishful thinkers, by looking at past patterns. In primaries, where the turnouts are so idiosyncratic, it is much more difficult. And the culling process really does not start in earnest until near election time anyway, when pollsters' reputations are on the line. The culling process is more costly. And then there are the cell phone folks, who are not polled at all, and that needs to be accounted for. Polling is less and less a science, and more and more an art, moving on inexorably to GIGO status - particularly in primaries.

[mds32]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

Why would a decent number of people answer yes to the question "Are you planning to vote in the Republican primary", if they aren't 100% committed? Wouldn't they just say "not sure"?

The likely voter part is key first yes. I think what needs to be asked if this is the first time they are voting in a primary. If it is and they are a bunch of Trump supporters not all of them and in fact a significant portion may not show up. Especially with the "ground-game" the Trump "campaign" is running.

[Holmes]

Trump's problem is that while his base likes to make noise, and his trolls even more noise, his base has some trouble actually showing up to vote.

Torie, has there been a primary or a caucus yet? You can't say that for certain. Maybe they won't show up in droves to caucus but they'll probably show up to vote in the primaries.

[Türkisblau]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

What inane classist drivel.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

Why would a decent number of people answer yes to the question "Are you planning to vote in the Republican primary", if they aren't 100% committed? Wouldn't they just say "not sure"?

The likely voter part is key first yes. I think what needs to be asked if this is the first time they are voting in a primary. If it is and they are a bunch of Trump supporters not all of them and in fact a significant portion may not show up. Especially with the "ground-game" the Trump "campaign" is running.

So, what, a pollster should take away 30 or 40 percent of Trump's "first time voter" support based on the rather bold assumption that his voters won't turn out? That's no better than the unskewed polls crap from last cycle.

[Torie]

Trump's problem is that while his base likes to make noise, and his trolls even more noise, his base has some trouble actually showing up to vote.

Torie, has there been a primary or a caucus yet? You can't say that for certain. Maybe they won't show up in droves to caucus but they'll probably show up to vote in the primaries.

Sure, anything is possible, and nothing is for certain, in life, and in particular in this insane election cycle. It's an odds thing.

[mds32]

Trump's problem is that while his base likes to make noise, and his trolls even more noise, his base has some trouble actually showing up to vote.

Torie, has there been a primary or a caucus yet? You can't say that for certain. Maybe they won't show up in droves to caucus but they'll probably show up to vote in the primaries.

They may not show up in "droves" to primaries either once they already see him losing. They may not even vote, which doesn't help Cruz either.

[Torie]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

What inane classist drivel.

Glad you enjoyed it. Lief has his box of chocolates, and I have my box of girl scout cookies. What flavor do you prefer?

[mds32]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

Why would a decent number of people answer yes to the question "Are you planning to vote in the Republican primary", if they aren't 100% committed? Wouldn't they just say "not sure"?

The likely voter part is key first yes. I think what needs to be asked if this is the first time they are voting in a primary. If it is and they are a bunch of Trump supporters not all of them and in fact a significant portion may not show up. Especially with the "ground-game" the Trump "campaign" is running.

So, what, a pollster should take away 30 or 40 percent of Trump's "first time voter" support based on the rather bold assumption that his voters won't turn out? That's no better than the unskewed polls crap from last cycle.

No I don't think they should skew anything because of it, but it reinforces all of the analysts that Trump's base is not solid or assured to come out and vote.

[mds32]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

What inane classist drivel.

Glad you enjoyed it. Lief has his box of chocolates, and I have my box of girl scout cookies. What flavor do you prefer?

I like Mint Chocolate.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

What inane classist drivel.

Glad you enjoyed it. Lief has his box of chocolates, and I have my box of girl scout cookies. What flavor do you prefer?

I don't denigrate or degrade people for the "crime" of being working class, Torie.

[Torie]

I don't think Trump pays much attention to consistently wrong hacks like Larry Sabato, Torie. The idea that he has a ceiling of 25-30% is ridiculous and not supported by any polling at all.

That is precisely Sabato's point actually. The polls are polling phantom Trump "voters." All those angry beer bellied white male voters in Bumfuk PA, just down the road from Grumps' place, worried about when the Mexicans will discover their zip code, really can't make time in their busy deer hunting and beer guzzling schedule to vote. I look forward to my schadenfreude when this particular leg of the twin evils goes down in flames. But, hey, have fun in the meantime!

What inane classist drivel.

Glad you enjoyed it. Lief has his box of chocolates, and I have my box of girl scout cookies. What flavor do you prefer?

I don't denigrate or degrade people for the "crime" of being working class, Torie.

I never used the word "crime," nor the word "violent" I might add. Anyway, time well tell who votes, and who doesn't. We can both be biting our nails in the meantime. It would just be so tragic if the Sabato/Torie think tank turns out to be wrong.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Well dipping into his own pocket to buy actual TV spots was the last step to proving he is really 'in it'. Although waiting this long also shows a level of amateurishness. As of now the other campaigns and Super PACs have already reserved $10s of millions in ad space in the early states for January, February and even March. The Trump campaign has yet to reserve any, so once they finally pull the trigger they are going to get a lot less bang for their bucks.   In some places like NH, there may also be a limit to being able to buy any at all, or if they do, it will have to be on Boston stations where most of the viewers arent even voters, making it even less efficient.

I'll believe that Trump is spending significant amounts of his own money when he actually does so, and not one moment sooner. So far, all I'm seeing is yet more "real soon" blather.

And as you point out, the effectiveness per dollar of any spending at this late date will be low. (Which could easily morph into a great excuse for not doing it at all.)