TRUMP preparing YUGE campaign ad blitz!

[mds32]

Well dipping into his own pocket to buy actual TV spots was the last step to proving he is really 'in it'. Although waiting this long also shows a level of amateurishness. As of now the other campaigns and Super PACs have already reserved $10s of millions in ad space in the early states for January, February and even March. The Trump campaign has yet to reserve any, so once they finally pull the trigger they are going to get a lot less bang for their bucks.   In some places like NH, there may also be a limit to being able to buy any at all, or if they do, it will have to be on Boston stations where most of the viewers arent even voters, making it even less efficient.

I'll believe that Trump is spending significant amounts of his own money when he actually does so, and not one moment sooner. So far, all I'm seeing is yet more "real soon" blather.

And as you point out, the effectiveness per dollar of any spending at this late date will be low. (Which could easily morph into a great excuse for not doing it at all.)

Fine by me. If Trump thinks he can win this off of name recognition alone he has another thing coming to him. Cruz's voters are energized in Iowa and the undecided voters in NH dislike Trump a lot so if an establishment candidate really breaks out there after the next debate he might be in trouble.

[Pandaguineapig]

Well dipping into his own pocket to buy actual TV spots was the last step to proving he is really 'in it'. Although waiting this long also shows a level of amateurishness. As of now the other campaigns and Super PACs have already reserved $10s of millions in ad space in the early states for January, February and even March. The Trump campaign has yet to reserve any, so once they finally pull the trigger they are going to get a lot less bang for their bucks.   In some places like NH, there may also be a limit to being able to buy any at all, or if they do, it will have to be on Boston stations where most of the viewers arent even voters, making it even less efficient.

I'll believe that Trump is spending significant amounts of his own money when he actually does so, and not one moment sooner. So far, all I'm seeing is yet more "real soon" blather.

And as you point out, the effectiveness per dollar of any spending at this late date will be low. (Which could easily morph into a great excuse for not doing it at all.)

Fine by me. If Trump thinks he can win this off of name recognition alone he has another thing coming to him. Cruz's voters are energized in Iowa and the undecided voters in NH dislike Trump a lot so if an establishment candidate really breaks out there after the next debate he might be in trouble.

Can't wait for the whining and moaning from trumpsexuals when their God is trampled in Iowa and nh

[Old Man Willow]

Well dipping into his own pocket to buy actual TV spots was the last step to proving he is really 'in it'. Although waiting this long also shows a level of amateurishness. As of now the other campaigns and Super PACs have already reserved $10s of millions in ad space in the early states for January, February and even March. The Trump campaign has yet to reserve any, so once they finally pull the trigger they are going to get a lot less bang for their bucks.   In some places like NH, there may also be a limit to being able to buy any at all, or if they do, it will have to be on Boston stations where most of the viewers arent even voters, making it even less efficient.

I'll believe that Trump is spending significant amounts of his own money when he actually does so, and not one moment sooner. So far, all I'm seeing is yet more "real soon" blather.

And as you point out, the effectiveness per dollar of any spending at this late date will be low. (Which could easily morph into a great excuse for not doing it at all.)

Fine by me. If Trump thinks he can win this off of name recognition alone he has another thing coming to him. Cruz's voters are energized in Iowa and the undecided voters in NH dislike Trump a lot so if an establishment candidate really breaks out there after the next debate he might be in trouble.

1.Cruz is the flavor of the month like Carson. His numbers will have plummeted in IA by this time next month, if anyone ends up beating Trump in IA it will be a Santorum 2012 razor thin margin.

2.Trump wins 2 way match ups in NH polls, so it's untrue that the undecided voters in NH dislike him.

[Pandaguineapig]

Well dipping into his own pocket to buy actual TV spots was the last step to proving he is really 'in it'. Although waiting this long also shows a level of amateurishness. As of now the other campaigns and Super PACs have already reserved $10s of millions in ad space in the early states for January, February and even March. The Trump campaign has yet to reserve any, so once they finally pull the trigger they are going to get a lot less bang for their bucks.   In some places like NH, there may also be a limit to being able to buy any at all, or if they do, it will have to be on Boston stations where most of the viewers arent even voters, making it even less efficient.

I'll believe that Trump is spending significant amounts of his own money when he actually does so, and not one moment sooner. So far, all I'm seeing is yet more "real soon" blather.

And as you point out, the effectiveness per dollar of any spending at this late date will be low. (Which could easily morph into a great excuse for not doing it at all.)

Fine by me. If Trump thinks he can win this off of name recognition alone he has another thing coming to him. Cruz's voters are energized in Iowa and the undecided voters in NH dislike Trump a lot so if an establishment candidate really breaks out there after the next debate he might be in trouble.

1.Cruz is the flavor of the month like Carson. His numbers will have plummeted in IA by this time next month, if anyone ends up beating Trump in IA it will be a Santorum 2012 razor thin margin.

2.Trump wins 2 way match ups in NH polls, so it's untrue that the undecided voters in NH dislike him.

Lol compare the people working cruzs ground game with trumps and get back to me

[Old Man Willow]

Well dipping into his own pocket to buy actual TV spots was the last step to proving he is really 'in it'. Although waiting this long also shows a level of amateurishness. As of now the other campaigns and Super PACs have already reserved $10s of millions in ad space in the early states for January, February and even March. The Trump campaign has yet to reserve any, so once they finally pull the trigger they are going to get a lot less bang for their bucks.   In some places like NH, there may also be a limit to being able to buy any at all, or if they do, it will have to be on Boston stations where most of the viewers arent even voters, making it even less efficient.

I'll believe that Trump is spending significant amounts of his own money when he actually does so, and not one moment sooner. So far, all I'm seeing is yet more "real soon" blather.

And as you point out, the effectiveness per dollar of any spending at this late date will be low. (Which could easily morph into a great excuse for not doing it at all.)

Fine by me. If Trump thinks he can win this off of name recognition alone he has another thing coming to him. Cruz's voters are energized in Iowa and the undecided voters in NH dislike Trump a lot so if an establishment candidate really breaks out there after the next debate he might be in trouble.

1.Cruz is the flavor of the month like Carson. His numbers will have plummeted in IA by this time next month, if anyone ends up beating Trump in IA it will be a Santorum 2012 razor thin margin.

2.Trump wins 2 way match ups in NH polls, so it's untrue that the undecided voters in NH dislike him.

Lol compare the people working cruzs ground game with trumps and get back to me

Ground game won't matter if the enthusiasm wears off. Also, even with an IA victory, Cruz will not overtake Trump in SC, especially after Trump gets his NH bump.

[defe07]

I seriously think rubio stands a chance to win sc... The state is very pro-war

[Mr. Morden]

Why would a decent number of people answer yes to the question "Are you planning to vote in the Republican primary", if they aren't 100% committed? Wouldn't they just say "not sure"?

Ftr, many pollsters create "likely voter" models that are more complicated than just "are you planning to vote in the primary?" since people lie all the time about things they think they *should* do (like voting) but are too lazy/busy/whatever to do.  That doesn't mean the likely voter screens are going to be right though.  Maybe they will, maybe they won't.  I think in low turnout primaries/caucuses, the likely voter screens tend to be too expansive, and the pollsters just skate by on the fact that unlikely voters aren't necessarily too terribly different from likely voters.  Maybe this time will be different though.  Making polls that are sufficiently restrictive in terms of "likely voters" is kind of expensive, because you have to hit a lot of people in order to get a decent sized sample.

\And then there are the cell phone folks, who are not polled at all, and that needs to be accounted for.

Huh?  You do realize that all the live interview telephone pollsters do in fact call cell phones, right?  It's just the robo-pollsters who don't call them.

[Torie]

OK Morden. My error. I guess the discussion of that pertained only to robo polls.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Why would a decent number of people answer yes to the question "Are you planning to vote in the Republican primary", if they aren't 100% committed? Wouldn't they just say "not sure"?

Ftr, many pollsters create "likely voter" models that are more complicated than just "are you planning to vote in the primary?" since people lie all the time about things they think they *should* do (like voting) but are too lazy/busy/whatever to do.  That doesn't mean the likely voter screens are going to be right though.  Maybe they will, maybe they won't.  I think in low turnout primaries/caucuses, the likely voter screens tend to be too expansive, and the pollsters just skate by on the fact that unlikely voters aren't necessarily too terribly different from likely voters.  Maybe this time will be different though.  Making polls that are sufficiently restrictive in terms of "likely voters" is kind of expensive, because you have to hit a lot of people in order to get a decent sized sample.

\And then there are the cell phone folks, who are not polled at all, and that needs to be accounted for.

Huh?  You do realize that all the live interview telephone pollsters do in fact call cell phones, right?  It's just the robo-pollsters who don't call them.

I've often wondered what the difference is in response rates from cell-phone owners vs. landline owners, how it skews results, and how (or even if) the pollsters account for that.

From my small set of friends and family anecdata, no one will take any sort of polling call on their cell. (Possibly a hold over habit  from the days of limited minutes.) Of course, now that I think about it, I don't know that anyone in my circle of acquaintances has taken a phone poll in years. There's less time as friends and family age out of school and into work and kids, and even landlines (for those who have them) are seldom answered unless caller ID says its a call they want to take, because of phone-spammers.

My guess is that phone-based polling is getting less  accurate overall, especially in urban areas. It'll be interesting to see this year.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

The ad blitz becomes less yuge:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-falls-short-2m-weekly-ad-spending-goal-latest-buy-n496021

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[cinyc]

Trump appears to have upped his ad spending later last week.  The early ad buys were puny in comparison.  He might have spent millions late last week into this week again, like during the first week of his ad blitz.

Trump is beginning to reserve time for the last two weeks of the campaign.  He's reserved $148,600 in ads on Des Moines CBS affiliate KCCI alone from January 22 to February 1.  Trump is buying some non pre-emptible fixed commercials on their 6PM news at $7,000 a pop, a non pre-emptible fixed ad during the Early Show the day before the caucuses for $5,000, and a non pre-emptible fixed ad during 60 Minutes on the Sunday before the election for a whopping $15,000.  Trump has ordered 57 ads on KCCI during that period so far, mainly during newscasts.  Last week, Trump added the non-news buys later in the week, so that might happen again.  The costs are astronomical compared to the first weeks of his ad campaign.  That's in part because Trump is paying more to make sure his ads actually air.  

It's good to be the owner of an Iowa TV station this time of year every 4 years.