Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[GALeftist]

A Scottish acquainance of mine relinquished his SNP membership due to a certain Joanna Cherry. Is she having any major impact on the SNP?

Aged like a fine wine

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1374037808017506308?s=20

Perhaps this is why the Tories hate her so much, all their favorite politicians seem to love breaking the ministerial code

[GALeftist]

Sturgeon has survived a vote of no confidence, which the Tories elected to still have despite the inquiry's findings. It appears that the SNP and Greens uniformly opposed the motion, while the Tories uniformly supported it (as well as the lone Reform UK MSP). Labour and the Lib Dems abstained (save for Mike Rumbles who voted yes).

[GALeftist]

Also Scotland if they separate wants to rejoin EU which most voted to remain part of, but does EU have any interest in admitting them?  I am thinking Spain might veto their entry, at least they threatened to back in 2014 worried it would embolden Catalan and Basque separatists and much of their success at preventing independence there is promise neither would be EU members if they separated.

I'm not an expert on this by any means, but I suspect the calculus has shifted now that the UK has left the EU altogether, and I think I remember the Sanchez government saying something to this effect. The concern is that Spain or other countries with independence movements might veto entry of states like Scotland which secede to signal to their own secessionist movements that leaving means that they will not be able to rejoin the EU. However, the UK is no longer an EU member state, so obviously that argument no longer applies to Scotland, and in theory this would seem to mean that the situations of Scotland and Catalonia are no longer analogous in this regard.

[GALeftist]

Labour holds Dunbarton. That is big. Massive unionist tactical voting.

Oof, that stings. The Tories really didn't mess around in Dumbarton, looks like they got like 8%. Is there still a path to an SNP majority without that seat?

[GALeftist]

I also support a supermajority as a observer, not because of history, but because if you can prove you have overwhelming support than the majority of the opposition is less likely to remain bitter. If world-changing referenda are decided by say...52/48, then the opposition won't stop to try and see it overdone given the tight polling. Voters are polarized on identity, and you have to break or accommodate the opposing identity, one can't just let it take root and divide society. The goal is to a better future, and polarization in any such system - Scotland, Catalonia, Northern Ireland, or anyone else - makes things worse not better.

I disagree with this. Requiring supermajorities in referenda implies that the status quo is somehow inherently a more legitimate position than revising said status quo, and I'm not sure why this would be the case for referenda more than anything else. After all, couldn't you make the same case regarding elections in general? Joe Biden didn't get a supermajority, and you could argue that his becoming president furthered polarization, so why not just stick with the status quo, i.e. the Trump administration?

[GALeftist]

List vote in Scotland with 16/73 counted:

SNP 40% (-3)
CON 24% (+2)
LAB 18% (-1)
LD 7% (-)
GRN 6% (+1)
ALBA 2%

Seems like the Green surge which was anticipated didn't quite materialize. Probably won't make much of a difference, though, SNP + Greens will likely be the government again