Two Guesses

[J. J.]

Okay, now you are being more specific. What would these two new parties look like? Without you going into detail, I can see somewhere between Mark Pryor's and Bill Clinton's Democratic Party and Alan Simpson's and Bob Dole's Republican Party...or simply that the culture war will end in an uneasy truce.

I'm simply talking about what effect a McCain win might have on the two parties, i.e. the ending of the old coalitions.  What the new ones will look like requires a crystal ball.

[J. J.]

So J.J. Any comments on the potential coalitions I see forming?

Only that it hasn't started yet.  I do not know what direction it will take, one that there is the very real possibility that both parties will no longer have the same coalition.

[J. J.]

The fact that Huckabee was even considered shows the GOP's move towards populism plus the increasing power of blue dogs in the dems are IMO signs of it.

Actually, Huckabee would show precisely the opposite.  And the Blue dogs are all but dead in the Democratic Caucus.  They were much more powerful in the late '70's and early '80.

[J. J.]

Though, if the urban vote doesn't work for the dems, I do see a shift of the democrats to suburban seculars and mainline protestants in the West and Midwest. Hell, I could see the GOP going after that vote, too if the fundies can be forgotten. This would mean that an economically conservative, socially center-left consensus could be met by both parties. Think of the politics of the 1950s.

I don't agree that this is what will result, but you could see the collapse of the extremist wings of both parties.

[J. J.]

Eliminating Roe V. Wade would cause a social liberal backlash to the point where I'd be considered far right(as in how we'd see someone like Tancredo/Peroutka)..

I could actually see that, if McCain looses.

I think that a Obama loss is a victory for the center of both parties, very long term.

[J. J.]

Let's play the hand out

Scenario 1: McCain wins

Let's presume McCain wins and gets in his 2 justices plus a compliant dem congress. We're talking repeal of Roe V. Wade, continued strong FCC, etc. Removing Roe V. Wade removes the conservative base's single rallying point and energizes the left. We're talking a move to the left on social matters not seen since the 60s/progressive era with the trend against neoliberal/washington consensus economics still going on but not being spurred by this. Basically, things change to the point where in 2012 I have a bit of a hard time deciding who to vote for and in 2016 I vote down the line republican because the democrats were too socially left for me.

I think it's the opposite.  McCain is elected, but with lesser support of the religious right.  He can pay less attention to them.

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The Democratic party becomes the Black Person's and Liberal's Party, meaning that the Black Congressional Caucus is in control.  It becomes clear that to seek power in the Democratic party, you must appease these these groups.  It pulls the Democrats to the left, probably dooming it for the next realignment. 

[J. J.]

Let's play the hand out

Scenario 1: McCain wins

Let's presume McCain wins and gets in his 2 justices plus a compliant dem congress. We're talking repeal of Roe V. Wade, continued strong FCC, etc. Removing Roe V. Wade removes the conservative base's single rallying point and energizes the left. We're talking a move to the left on social matters not seen since the 60s/progressive era with the trend against neoliberal/washington consensus economics still going on but not being spurred by this. Basically, things change to the point where in 2012 I have a bit of a hard time deciding who to vote for and in 2016 I vote down the line republican because the democrats were too socially left for me.

I think it's the opposite.  McCain is elected, but with lesser support of the religious right.  He can pay less attention to them.

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The Democratic party becomes the Black Person's and Liberal's Party, meaning that the Black Congressional Caucus is in control.  It becomes clear that to seek power in the Democratic party, you must appease these these groups.  It pulls the Democrats to the left, probably dooming it for the next realignment. 

So will McCain reverse Roe? and what if he does?

I doubt if McCain will be appointed to the Supreme Court.

[J. J.]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

[J. J.]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

likewise, Mr. Delta Minus.

Me, definitely an Alpha.

[J. J.]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

likewise, Mr. Delta Minus.

Me, definitely an Alpha.

Maybe an Alpha Minus Minus. Listen, I'm not worried about being marginalized, ok.

You spent a whole thread complaining about it. 

It does, as someone with a congenital birth defect, offer some interesting possibilities.  I've realized in the future that some problems like mine might never exist.

[J. J.]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

likewise, Mr. Delta Minus.

Me, definitely an Alpha.

Maybe an Alpha Minus Minus. Listen, I'm not worried about being marginalized, ok.

You spent a whole thread complaining about it. 

It does, as someone with a congenital birth defect, offer some interesting possibilities.  I've realized in the future that some problems like mine might never exist.

I hope for that, too. I just hope they spend trying to fix people who already live instead of trying to replace them who come "fixed". Though, I do hope that any future children (and eventually grandchildren) will be born into a world that has already ensured them health.

I actually am more than a little worried about that.

[J. J.]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

likewise, Mr. Delta Minus.

Me, definitely an Alpha.

Maybe an Alpha Minus Minus. Listen, I'm not worried about being marginalized, ok.

You spent a whole thread complaining about it. 

It does, as someone with a congenital birth defect, offer some interesting possibilities.  I've realized in the future that some problems like mine might never exist.

I hope for that, too. I just hope they spend trying to fix people who already live instead of trying to replace them who come "fixed". Though, I do hope that any future children (and eventually grandchildren) will be born into a world that has already ensured them health.

I actually am more than a little worried about that.

Depends on how they do it. I mean, I could see people feeling that they are being forced to conform against their will, then again, it could offer a lot of hard-working people more oppurtunities.

No, at least some of my accomplishments are influenced by me being disabled.  Now an equal playing field is one thing, but you do lose your individuality, and a different outlook on life, if a disability just gets corrected.

[J. J.]

Just time for a bump. 

[J. J.]

Given all that has happened, do you stand strong to your earlier statements about the next election being a "deluge"?

Next two, yes.  I will say to whomever wins "After you, the deluge."

[J. J.]

Given all that has happened, do you stand strong to your earlier statements about the next election being a "deluge"?

Next two, yes.  I will say to whomever wins "After you, the deluge."

...and you still say that the main change will revolve around the change in fortunes of the religious right. You say that if Obama wins, the Religious Right may develop a national consensus around them and if McCain wins, they may lose much of their political power....perhaps even giving up their dominionistic/imperial ambitions.

No I didn't.  I looked at about 8 different possibilities and that was one.

Here is what I've really said:

I keep on saying, I do not know the changes only that I see the change coming.

The other thing I indicated would be that a McCain win would diminish the evangelical wing of the GOP.  It still will.  A loss, and in all probability, Palin becomes head (which is still better than Huckabee).

[J. J.]

You could see two situations:

1.  Obama wins and is the next Jimmy Carter, only worse.  Within 5 years of today there is Christian conservative Congress abnd President.

2.  McCain win and the evangelicals in the party are diminished.

The more this election cycle goes on, the more I'm starting to see option #1.  Though not necessarily a "Christian conservative" Congress/President, but a sharp trend towards social authoritarianism and stronger economic controls being dicated by government.  You could kind of see it start after 9/11, frankly.

I could see a more libertarian bent.

[J. J.]

Though, I do not share your optimism about Palin...maybe if Palin is forced to run in 2012 and loses...

Some of her things have been more consensual.  Now, I'm not saying anything about the direction of the re-alignment, just that we'll see it in the next two elections.  I already predicted that GOP would win, at a time when I wasn't sure I'd be voting for the GOP nominee or who either party nominee would be.

[J. J.]

The only thing that makes me pause before being anywhere near 100% behind the prediction above is the concern that the longer the undecideds stay undecided, the more likely they are to break to the white candidate.  Or at least, that's what has happened historically, and those still undecided seem to fit the pattern of this type of voter more than not.

But whatever, even if McCain gets elected, this is probably where we're headed.

You make an assumption, if McCain is elected, a Republican will be elected in 2012.  I'm not too sure about that.

[J. J.]

The only thing that makes me pause before being anywhere near 100% behind the prediction above is the concern that the longer the undecideds stay undecided, the more likely they are to break to the white candidate.  Or at least, that's what has happened historically, and those still undecided seem to fit the pattern of this type of voter more than not.

But whatever, even if McCain gets elected, this is probably where we're headed.

You make an assumption, if McCain is elected, a Republican will be elected in 2012.  I'm not too sure about that.

I never made that assumption.  In fact, I thought my statement implied the opposite.  But the result in terms the trend towards authoritarianism and stronger control will be the same.

No, but we might see a break between social libertarians and security libertarians.

[J. J.]

The only thing that makes me pause before being anywhere near 100% behind the prediction above is the concern that the longer the undecideds stay undecided, the more likely they are to break to the white candidate.  Or at least, that's what has happened historically, and those still undecided seem to fit the pattern of this type of voter more than not.

But whatever, even if McCain gets elected, this is probably where we're headed.

You make an assumption, if McCain is elected, a Republican will be elected in 2012.  I'm not too sure about that.

I never made that assumption.  In fact, I thought my statement implied the opposite.  But the result in terms the trend towards authoritarianism and stronger control will be the same.

No, but we might see a break between social libertarians and security libertarians.

...whatever that means.

Simple:   Conduct will be tolerated, but actions will be monitored.

[J. J.]

The only thing that makes me pause before being anywhere near 100% behind the prediction above is the concern that the longer the undecideds stay undecided, the more likely they are to break to the white candidate.  Or at least, that's what has happened historically, and those still undecided seem to fit the pattern of this type of voter more than not.

But whatever, even if McCain gets elected, this is probably where we're headed.

You make an assumption, if McCain is elected, a Republican will be elected in 2012.  I'm not too sure about that.

I never made that assumption.  In fact, I thought my statement implied the opposite.  But the result in terms the trend towards authoritarianism and stronger control will be the same.

No, but we might see a break between social libertarians and security libertarians.

...whatever that means.

Simple:   Conduct will be tolerated, but actions will be monitored.

That seems to be a bit broad...but are you trying to say that the theo-cons will lose ground to the neo-cons, at least on law enforcement policy?

I wouldn't use those titles.

[J. J.]

Answer the question.

Come up with a different classification; those don't apply.

[J. J.]

Ok. So, in a certain situation, probably if McCain wins and no matter what happesn to him, the Rudy Guiliani (socially moderate anti-terror) wing of the party will gain more influence at the expense of the Mike Huckabee( socially conservative/ security moderate)wing of the party on  law and order issues?

That is one possibility.

[J. J.]

You could see two situations:

1.  Obama wins and is the next Jimmy Carter, only worse.  Within 5 years of today there is Christian conservative Congress abnd President.

2.  McCain win and the evangelicals in the party are diminished.

The more this election cycle goes on, the more I'm starting to see option #1.  Though not necessarily a "Christian conservative" Congress/President, but a sharp trend towards social authoritarianism and stronger economic controls being dicated by government.  You could kind of see it start after 9/11, frankly.

This post, made the second day of the "crisis" still nails it.

Though, really, there are three options for the Obama presidency...

It depends.  I'm not convinced there will be an Obama presidency, this time.  We can only speculate what would have happened if Ford won in 1976.

My initial prediction was that the GOP wins.  At the time, I didn't predict that it would be McCain versus Obama.

[J. J.]

You could see two situations:

1.  Obama wins and is the next Jimmy Carter, only worse.  Within 5 years of today there is Christian conservative Congress abnd President.

2.  McCain win and the evangelicals in the party are diminished.

The more this election cycle goes on, the more I'm starting to see option #1.  Though not necessarily a "Christian conservative" Congress/President, but a sharp trend towards social authoritarianism and stronger economic controls being dicated by government.  You could kind of see it start after 9/11, frankly.

This post, made the second day of the "crisis" still nails it.

Though, really, there are three options for the Obama presidency...

It depends.  I'm not convinced there will be an Obama presidency, this time.  We can only speculate what would have happened if Ford won in 1976.

My initial prediction was that the GOP wins.  At the time, I didn't predict that it would be McCain versus Obama.

So you think that McCain still will be miracled into the White House and then you will tell him that after him, there will be a deluge....what will happen then? Will there be breasts?

No, I will tell that that.  The only the president can hope to do is redirect the waters.