Two Guesses

[Person Man]

Eliminating Roe V. Wade would cause a social liberal backlash to the point where I'd be considered far right(as in how we'd see someone like Tancredo/Peroutka)..

I could actually see that, if McCain looses.

I think that a Obama loss is a victory for the center of both parties, very long term.

What would it mean if he wins...

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Let's play the hand out

Scenario 1: McCain wins

Let's presume McCain wins and gets in his 2 justices plus a compliant dem congress. We're talking repeal of Roe V. Wade, continued strong FCC, etc. Removing Roe V. Wade removes the conservative base's single rallying point and energizes the left. We're talking a move to the left on social matters not seen since the 60s/progressive era with the trend against neoliberal/washington consensus economics still going on but not being spurred by this. Basically, things change to the point where in 2012 I have a bit of a hard time deciding who to vote for and in 2016 I vote down the line republican because the democrats were too socially left for me.

Scenario 2: Obama Wins

Obama wins and manages to move things slightly more in a moderate direction but his incompetence drives things off the rails leading to a backlash. The end result is a deadlock on social issues on the federal level, de-emphasizing morals/nanny state controls in favor of focusing on security concerns. We're talking 20s red scare level purges against muslims, mormons(the whole xenophobia plus percieved polygamy bit), elements of the far left(the blame america crowd, anarchists), greens, minority ethnic nationalists and some of the more strange lifestyle movements(the transgender movement is crushed to the point where it doesn't recover for a generation, the more outre elements of gay culture are repressed, hippies are repressed, goths/emos get repressed). Identity politics is savagely repressed.

[War on Want]

Let's play the hand out

Scenario 1: McCain wins

Let's presume McCain wins and gets in his 2 justices plus a compliant dem congress. We're talking repeal of Roe V. Wade, continued strong FCC, etc. Removing Roe V. Wade removes the conservative base's single rallying point and energizes the left. We're talking a move to the left on social matters not seen since the 60s/progressive era with the trend against neoliberal/washington consensus economics still going on but not being spurred by this. Basically, things change to the point where in 2012 I have a bit of a hard time deciding who to vote for and in 2016 I vote down the line republican because the democrats were too socially left for me.

Scenario 2: Obama Wins

Obama wins and manages to move things slightly more in a moderate direction but his incompetence drives things off the rails leading to a backlash. The end result is a deadlock on social issues on the federal level, de-emphasizing morals/nanny state controls in favor of focusing on security concerns. We're talking 20s red scare level purges against muslims, mormons(the whole xenophobia plus percieved polygamy bit), elements of the far left(the blame america crowd, anarchists), greens, minority ethnic nationalists and some of the more strange lifestyle movements(the transgender movement is crushed to the point where it doesn't recover for a generation, the more outre elements of gay culture are repressed, hippies are repressed, goths/emos get repressed). Identity politics is savagely repressed.

Really?

[Person Man]

Let's play the hand out

Scenario 1: McCain wins

Let's presume McCain wins and gets in his 2 justices plus a compliant dem congress. We're talking repeal of Roe V. Wade, continued strong FCC, etc. Removing Roe V. Wade removes the conservative base's single rallying point and energizes the left. We're talking a move to the left on social matters not seen since the 60s/progressive era with the trend against neoliberal/washington consensus economics still going on but not being spurred by this. Basically, things change to the point where in 2012 I have a bit of a hard time deciding who to vote for and in 2016 I vote down the line republican because the democrats were too socially left for me.

Scenario 2: Obama Wins

Obama wins and manages to move things slightly more in a moderate direction but his incompetence drives things off the rails leading to a backlash. The end result is a deadlock on social issues on the federal level, de-emphasizing morals/nanny state controls in favor of focusing on security concerns. We're talking 20s red scare level purges against muslims, mormons(the whole xenophobia plus percieved polygamy bit), elements of the far left(the blame america crowd, anarchists), greens, minority ethnic nationalists and some of the more strange lifestyle movements(the transgender movement is crushed to the point where it doesn't recover for a generation, the more outre elements of gay culture are repressed, hippies are repressed, goths/emos get repressed). Identity politics is savagely repressed.

So anybody who doesn't "Get with the fu cking program" get's deported or jailed? Oooohh...will there be eugenics? Look at my Olympics thread... if you are right, I'm going to save up on my money and get all of the advantages I can get lest I get jailed, deported, go unemployed or lose every thing. Gee...I need to go to bed.

[J. J.]

Let's play the hand out

Scenario 1: McCain wins

Let's presume McCain wins and gets in his 2 justices plus a compliant dem congress. We're talking repeal of Roe V. Wade, continued strong FCC, etc. Removing Roe V. Wade removes the conservative base's single rallying point and energizes the left. We're talking a move to the left on social matters not seen since the 60s/progressive era with the trend against neoliberal/washington consensus economics still going on but not being spurred by this. Basically, things change to the point where in 2012 I have a bit of a hard time deciding who to vote for and in 2016 I vote down the line republican because the democrats were too socially left for me.

I think it's the opposite.  McCain is elected, but with lesser support of the religious right.  He can pay less attention to them.

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The Democratic party becomes the Black Person's and Liberal's Party, meaning that the Black Congressional Caucus is in control.  It becomes clear that to seek power in the Democratic party, you must appease these these groups.  It pulls the Democrats to the left, probably dooming it for the next realignment. 

[Person Man]

Let's play the hand out

Scenario 1: McCain wins

Let's presume McCain wins and gets in his 2 justices plus a compliant dem congress. We're talking repeal of Roe V. Wade, continued strong FCC, etc. Removing Roe V. Wade removes the conservative base's single rallying point and energizes the left. We're talking a move to the left on social matters not seen since the 60s/progressive era with the trend against neoliberal/washington consensus economics still going on but not being spurred by this. Basically, things change to the point where in 2012 I have a bit of a hard time deciding who to vote for and in 2016 I vote down the line republican because the democrats were too socially left for me.

I think it's the opposite.  McCain is elected, but with lesser support of the religious right.  He can pay less attention to them.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Democratic party becomes the Black Person's and Liberal's Party, meaning that the Black Congressional Caucus is in control.  It becomes clear that to seek power in the Democratic party, you must appease these these groups.  It pulls the Democrats to the left, probably dooming it for the next realignment. 

So will McCain reverse Roe? and what if he does?

[J. J.]

Let's play the hand out

Scenario 1: McCain wins

Let's presume McCain wins and gets in his 2 justices plus a compliant dem congress. We're talking repeal of Roe V. Wade, continued strong FCC, etc. Removing Roe V. Wade removes the conservative base's single rallying point and energizes the left. We're talking a move to the left on social matters not seen since the 60s/progressive era with the trend against neoliberal/washington consensus economics still going on but not being spurred by this. Basically, things change to the point where in 2012 I have a bit of a hard time deciding who to vote for and in 2016 I vote down the line republican because the democrats were too socially left for me.

I think it's the opposite.  McCain is elected, but with lesser support of the religious right.  He can pay less attention to them.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Democratic party becomes the Black Person's and Liberal's Party, meaning that the Black Congressional Caucus is in control.  It becomes clear that to seek power in the Democratic party, you must appease these these groups.  It pulls the Democrats to the left, probably dooming it for the next realignment. 

So will McCain reverse Roe? and what if he does?

I doubt if McCain will be appointed to the Supreme Court.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

So anybody who doesn't "Get with the fu cking program" get's deported or jailed? Oooohh...will there be eugenics? Look at my Olympics thread... if you are right, I'm going to save up on my money and get all of the advantages I can get lest I get jailed, deported, go unemployed or lose every thing. Gee...I need to go to bed.

Not quite. Think more the eisenhower administration minus jim crow and with significantly less sexism/homophobia/prudery with elements of Reagan's morning in america(more poppy/edgy pop culture) and the 20s red scare.

Regarding eugenics it gets complex. Incidently, the US already bans genetic discrimination and negative eugenics is seen as quite unPC these days. However, positive eugenics (as in paying people woh are smart/healthy/rich to have kids/giving them tax breaks) is coming in both scenarios.

[Person Man]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

[J. J.]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

[Person Man]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

likewise, Mr. Delta Minus.

[J. J.]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

likewise, Mr. Delta Minus.

Me, definitely an Alpha.

[Person Man]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

likewise, Mr. Delta Minus.

Me, definitely an Alpha.

Maybe an Alpha Minus Minus. Listen, I'm not worried about being marginalized, ok.

[J. J.]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

likewise, Mr. Delta Minus.

Me, definitely an Alpha.

Maybe an Alpha Minus Minus. Listen, I'm not worried about being marginalized, ok.

You spent a whole thread complaining about it. 

It does, as someone with a congenital birth defect, offer some interesting possibilities.  I've realized in the future that some problems like mine might never exist.

[Person Man]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

likewise, Mr. Delta Minus.

Me, definitely an Alpha.

Maybe an Alpha Minus Minus. Listen, I'm not worried about being marginalized, ok.

You spent a whole thread complaining about it. 

It does, as someone with a congenital birth defect, offer some interesting possibilities.  I've realized in the future that some problems like mine might never exist.

I hope for that, too. I just hope they spend trying to fix people who already live instead of trying to replace them who come "fixed". Though, I do hope that any future children (and eventually grandchildren) will be born into a world that has already ensured them health.

[J. J.]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

likewise, Mr. Delta Minus.

Me, definitely an Alpha.

Maybe an Alpha Minus Minus. Listen, I'm not worried about being marginalized, ok.

You spent a whole thread complaining about it. 

It does, as someone with a congenital birth defect, offer some interesting possibilities.  I've realized in the future that some problems like mine might never exist.

I hope for that, too. I just hope they spend trying to fix people who already live instead of trying to replace them who come "fixed". Though, I do hope that any future children (and eventually grandchildren) will be born into a world that has already ensured them health.

I actually am more than a little worried about that.

[Person Man]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

likewise, Mr. Delta Minus.

Me, definitely an Alpha.

Maybe an Alpha Minus Minus. Listen, I'm not worried about being marginalized, ok.

You spent a whole thread complaining about it. 

It does, as someone with a congenital birth defect, offer some interesting possibilities.  I've realized in the future that some problems like mine might never exist.

I hope for that, too. I just hope they spend trying to fix people who already live instead of trying to replace them who come "fixed". Though, I do hope that any future children (and eventually grandchildren) will be born into a world that has already ensured them health.

I actually am more than a little worried about that.

Depends on how they do it. I mean, I could see people feeling that they are being forced to conform against their will, then again, it could offer a lot of hard-working people more oppurtunities.

[J. J.]

I guess so...that doesn't seem too bad, except the Gattica thing.

I'm sure you Gamma types will find a productive place in society.

likewise, Mr. Delta Minus.

Me, definitely an Alpha.

Maybe an Alpha Minus Minus. Listen, I'm not worried about being marginalized, ok.

You spent a whole thread complaining about it. 

It does, as someone with a congenital birth defect, offer some interesting possibilities.  I've realized in the future that some problems like mine might never exist.

I hope for that, too. I just hope they spend trying to fix people who already live instead of trying to replace them who come "fixed". Though, I do hope that any future children (and eventually grandchildren) will be born into a world that has already ensured them health.

I actually am more than a little worried about that.

Depends on how they do it. I mean, I could see people feeling that they are being forced to conform against their will, then again, it could offer a lot of hard-working people more oppurtunities.

No, at least some of my accomplishments are influenced by me being disabled.  Now an equal playing field is one thing, but you do lose your individuality, and a different outlook on life, if a disability just gets corrected.

[Person Man]

Wouldn't that simply create a new expierence altogether?

[J. J.]

Just time for a bump. 

[Person Man]

Given all that has happened, do you stand strong to your earlier statements about the next election being a "deluge"?

[J. J.]

Given all that has happened, do you stand strong to your earlier statements about the next election being a "deluge"?

Next two, yes.  I will say to whomever wins "After you, the deluge."

[Person Man]

Given all that has happened, do you stand strong to your earlier statements about the next election being a "deluge"?

Next two, yes.  I will say to whomever wins "After you, the deluge."

...and you still say that the main change will revolve around the change in fortunes of the religious right. You say that if Obama wins, the Religious Right may develop a national consensus around them and if McCain wins, they may lose much of their political power....perhaps even giving up their dominionistic/imperial ambitions.

[J. J.]

Given all that has happened, do you stand strong to your earlier statements about the next election being a "deluge"?

Next two, yes.  I will say to whomever wins "After you, the deluge."

...and you still say that the main change will revolve around the change in fortunes of the religious right. You say that if Obama wins, the Religious Right may develop a national consensus around them and if McCain wins, they may lose much of their political power....perhaps even giving up their dominionistic/imperial ambitions.

No I didn't.  I looked at about 8 different possibilities and that was one.

Here is what I've really said:

I keep on saying, I do not know the changes only that I see the change coming.

The other thing I indicated would be that a McCain win would diminish the evangelical wing of the GOP.  It still will.  A loss, and in all probability, Palin becomes head (which is still better than Huckabee).

[Sam Spade]

You could see two situations:

1.  Obama wins and is the next Jimmy Carter, only worse.  Within 5 years of today there is Christian conservative Congress abnd President.

2.  McCain win and the evangelicals in the party are diminished.

The more this election cycle goes on, the more I'm starting to see option #1.  Though not necessarily a "Christian conservative" Congress/President, but a sharp trend towards social authoritarianism and stronger economic controls being dicated by government.  You could kind of see it start after 9/11, frankly.