California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Mr. Smith]

I really hope Khanna jumps in.

Lee is too old, and far too good in her current position. I was one of her constituents, and voted her each time until this last election where I finally jumped states entirely.

Alas, it's almost always NorCal v SoCal instead of establishment v "radical" or technocrat v populist or Republican-Lite vs Humphrey-esque.

[Mr. Smith]

I still have a feeling it’s going to be Porter regardless of who else jumps in. California is significantly more progressive than the rest of the country and voted for Bernie in the 2020 primaries. The Black vote doesn’t seem to be as monolithic there as it is elsewhere either so I don’t think Barbara Lee would be an automatic shoe-in like some moderate Dems seem to think.

1. California didn't vote for Bernie in 2016, nor Obama in '08.

2. And yes it is, it's just that Oakland and Compton/Torrance are the only really concentrated areas.

3. Lee is literally more progressive than Porter, Porter would be the more moderate/centrist option...if anything it's just a better case built for Porter.

That said, it's the Hispanic vote that matters most, and that vote is definitely more liberal than most other states, certainly more than Texas or Florida.

[Mr. Smith]

What would a Lee vs Porter map look like?

Dems would probably split north-south, and Republicans would favour Lee.

No. Just no.

[Mr. Smith]

Barbara Lee was born the same year as Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Donald Trump; she'll be 78 next year. And she's going to run for the Senate now?!?

Donna Shalala won 2018 at that ageas the record, Ed Markey wasn't much younger when making the upgrade from The House.

[Mr. Smith]

Does anyone have a sense or prediction for which Republicans will run?

I don’t think any of the house delegation runs, as they’re either in Safe Seats, the most vulnerable seats in the house, or Kevin McCarthy.

Larry Elder COULD pull an Allan Fung and run, but I don’t think he wants to be seen as a perennial candidate.

So honestly I have no idea. It could literally be ANYBODY.

I don't think he minds.

[Mr. Smith]

Honestly, I like Schiff and have nothing against him, but if I was in CA this would probably be between Porter and Lee for me.

It’s between Porter and Lee for me, and I’m leaning towards Lee because she’s from the Bay Area.

This. Ironic that I switched registration last midterm out of her district. After not stepping in for 2016, I kinda gave up on her going anywhere.

[Mr. Smith]

BBBB

Bring Back Barbara Boxer!

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1648657838216978432

https://twitter.com/JordanUhl/status/1659181109119184896?t=uTsPKw6kbuiPVzIzaI80q...

One of the most revolting exploitations of identity politics I've ever seen. This wasn't sexism and these elder abusing f**king crooks know it's not sexism.

The oligarchy is alive and well in San Francisco. But I’m sure that this has nothing to do with Nancy Pelosi trying to preserve her class’s power at the expense of the progressive ideals she claims. After all it’s her opponents who are so sexist that they are trying to get someone reported by Vox to have Alzheimer’s almost a decade ago out of the senate.

Nancy Pelosi is easily the most corrupt, evil, corporate tool of a democrat and once again it shows

But that oligarchy usually props up local candidates at the expense of LA. The Machine is very much a Bay Area machine.

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/BarbaraLeeForCA/status/1701041279839375670
These comments by Barabara Lee expressing her dissapointing with the descion are both sour grapes and seem to express a contemptous attitude towards the idea that voters should be able to pick their representives and the concept of senators representing all their counstituents not just the ones they share demographics charectersitcs with.

It's one of the most entitltied things i've seen written by any major us politican.

Yeah, that's a bad statement which makes her sound like a bitter person with an inflated sense of entitlement. It won't make her many new friends.

I agree and it basically ends her candidacy, but she’s also right. So Newsom’s goal the whole time was to nominate a black figurehead to pander while still supporting a white former blue dog behind the scenes? Typical of him.

This is all wonderful news for Senator-elect Katie Porter though anyway. The party is trying to rig it for Schiff, but she has crossover appeal and will win progressives handily.

Not Rigging the race for Lee is rigging it for Schiff ? This is an incredibly dubious line of reasoning.

Not entirely, given The Machine.  The State Machine was headed towards Lee, the National Machine has been in it for Schiff.

Lee being out would unite those two big.

[Mr. Smith]

The funny thing is that I think Lee would've been a shoo-in appointment if she hadn't started her campaign months ago. But she got way too greedy way too early and now her whole camp sound like petulant children.

With London Breed right there? Fat chance.

[Mr. Smith]

👀

https://twitter.com/secupp/status/1708464810763919811

Press X to doubt.  Media wishcasting does not make it so.

Also reminder that this is The Daily Mail.

What IS the daily mail? Some tabloid piece or the British answer to Fox News?

Worse than either.

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1708865281110454759

The voters used to not be so friendly to appointed Senators. A California Democrat even lost in the 1964 landslide.

That was the first high profile actor to run for office, not a fair example.

Ironically, and more appropriately, the one Feinstein beat was an appointee.

[Mr. Smith]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1726097245194551729

No endorsement, no surprise.

Was 50+1% needed?

Otherwise, it seems Lee gets the lead, which once again puts the National Apparatus against the State, just like 2018 when Feinstein effectively got Lieberman'd, and just like Lieberman, didn't take a hint and got bailed out by the mainstream cowards.

One thing's for sure, it's going to be quite surreal if Porter of all people still comes out on top.

[Mr. Smith]

Perhaps I'll get around to asking the rest of the fam who they went for, I suspect my Sis is in the Leehive if paying attention, and Dad's probably gone for Schiff.

[Mr. Smith]

This campaign has really been a masterclass by Schiff.

More like an Epic Fail by Lee and Porter. Schiff pulled a Luigi and won by doing nothing.

[Mr. Smith]

Didn't expect Santa Cruz to flip in the Special at all.

[Mr. Smith]

Didn't expect Santa Cruz to flip in the Special at all.

Something is pretty obviously wrong with Schiff's total in the special in Santa Cruz. He is getting 44% for the full term and only 22% in the special. There are also 13,000 less votes in the special than for the full term. And just to be clear the results page shows Porter leading the special not Garvey.

Ah, that makes more sense.