PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[bullmoose88]

Hmm. Barring a Schweiker surprise run...

I like the idea of Swann.

The GOP better be very careful...they run a conservative and they will lose the SE (and with it the state) to the Philly Governor. (Who by the way...I like...especially on Eagles Postgame)

[bullmoose88]

Rendell's pretty safe.

This state has a habit of sticking 8 years per party control for governor.

[bullmoose88]

Castor considers run for Governor.

http://www.kywnewsradio.com/news_story_detail.cfm?newsitemid=45290


Rendell, Piccola, Scranton, Swann....everyone considering a run for Gov. in 2006 are afraid now...

I want PA Dems to see this and see if they insist that their Eddie is still safe for re-election.

Yes he is.  Remember Ed Rendell has WAY more star power than Bruce Castor.

You're crazy. Castor will cut into Rendell's base big time and the west can't stand Rendell to begin with.

Phil,

You dream. No offense dude.

Rendell's still going to run on his record as mayor...and he'll win big in the SE.

This state likes to have two term governors.

[bullmoose88]

Castor considers run for Governor.

http://www.kywnewsradio.com/news_story_detail.cfm?newsitemid=45290


Rendell, Piccola, Scranton, Swann....everyone considering a run for Gov. in 2006 are afraid now...

I want PA Dems to see this and see if they insist that their Eddie is still safe for re-election.

Yes he is.  Remember Ed Rendell has WAY more star power than Bruce Castor.

You're crazy. Castor will cut into Rendell's base big time and the west can't stand Rendell to begin with.

Phil,

You dream. No offense dude.

Rendell's still going to run on his record as mayor...and he'll win big in the SE.

This state likes to have two term governors.

I dream? You're doubting Castor's popularity, dude? Do you realize his re-election results, dude? Do you realize that the west went for Rendell in 2002 but he's disliked out there, dude?

How can you say that Castor wouldn't cut into Rendell's base here? Rendell won Montco by about 36%. He wouldn't even get close to winning by that much if he had to run against Castor. That's not a dream. Now if I said Swann would cut into the base big time, then you could say I'm dreaming but you obviously don't understand the issue here.

 Flyers is this ultimate partisan hack who admires Rendell to no end. Rendell does no wrong, in his eyes.. I'm surprised you decided to go along with his nonsense on this issue.

I don't think Rendell's been that great of a governor, I don't think he's been bad either...dude.

The problem is, the man is a cultural icon here. Sure he may not win by 36 points in Montco...but he'll win by enough in the SE to counteract any Republican gains out west. The SE has so many voters that the GOP would have to cream Rendell out west just to have a chance.

Rendell's still going to get the union endorsements (which is sad, because generally they just support anyone with a D after their name)...which means he'll keep it close in NE and SW PA.

Close enough where it won't matter.

The state party would be better served to spend the money on Santorum.

[bullmoose88]

Phil,

Maybe Castor cuts Rendell's lead in Montco decently...

but visit Bucks...and ask who Castor is...

they'll say...Bruce who?

IIRC, Castor's a graduate of my college...and no one here knows who the hell he is...

[bullmoose88]

Phil,

Maybe Castor cuts Rendell's lead in Montco decently...

but visit Bucks...and ask who Castor is...

they'll say...Bruce who?

IIRC, Castor's a graduate of my college...and no one here knows who the hell he is...

He'd do much better than Fisher and unite the local Republican parties. Look at Montco. The GOP is crumbling there. There is one figure who unites them: Bruce Castor. He'd do very well out there. I guess nini hasn't been to the GOP conventions in Montco. They really do love him.

You're still talking about montco republicans...which are just a plurality in the county...

[bullmoose88]

I think Santorum has a better chance of holding on against Casey than I do of Swann or Castor upsetting Rendell.

I'm a betting man. I'd put Santorum's race at a push (slightly more optimistic outlook for the GOP), and give Rendell decent, though not great, odds of holding on.

I really haven't heard of much disappointment with Rendell here in the burbs too much yet...I live in Bucks and only know of Castor because he went to the same college I am attending, no one else in this county really knows or cares who he is...and Swann? Could be decent, but he's from the Pittsburgh. East-West rivalry can come into play.

[bullmoose88]

That being said, we're 15 or so months from the general election, and Rendell's sub 50% reelect number is some cause for concern.

[bullmoose88]

Putting both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on the front page of his website is a nice touch.

Everyone does that but he doesn't have to. I honestly believe he can say "Screw the east" and win. The west is pretty angry with Edddie.

If He does that, I'm voting/will actively support Ed Rendell (as opposed to doing the same for Mike Fisher in '02).

Screw the West. Up with the Southeast.

[bullmoose88]

Putting both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on the front page of his website is a nice touch.

Everyone does that but he doesn't have to. I honestly believe he can say "Screw the east" and win. The west is pretty angry with Edddie.

If He does that, I'm voting/will actively support Ed Rendell (as opposed to doing the same for Mike Fisher in '02).

Screw the West. Up with the Southeast.

Rendell makes us look bad. The guy goes out of his way to be more of a sports commentator than a Governor and people out west, as well as everyone else, should be mad that people in this area of the state just accept that.

Up with all of Pennsylvania.

UP with the SE first...since we're essentially subsidizing the rest of the state anyhow...and by we're, I mean the philly burbs.

[bullmoose88]

UP with the SE first...since we're essentially subsidizing the rest of the state anyhow...and by we're, I mean the philly burbs.

We aren't struggling in these parts, bullmoose. If we are going to put someone else "up" first, it should be elsewhere.

I disagree. I completely disagree.

[bullmoose88]

Hmm...toss up between party and region.

Not sure how I'll vote yet on this one.

[bullmoose88]

The is elephant in the parlor that no one talking about, race.  If Swan can get a proportion of the African American vote in Phila, better than Bush's, it suddenly becomes a dead even race.  He gets 25% of the Black vote, holds Fisher's base, Swan wins.

Not necessarily...it certainly gives him a good, if not great shot, but the way the state demographics change (more people in the philly burbs, less in the west, year in and year out) could dampen that strategy...which likely means Swann has to reach out a tad (since his base is sorta shrinking, if ever so slightly in the last 4 years)

[bullmoose88]

...and he's doing it on Rendell's turf - http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/news/columnists/14967836.htm

Interesting...

The one thing I noticed was that, besides West Philly (what one would consider hardcore democrat turf)...and the W's...Swann didn't visit one swing area in the article (as you can expect Phil...New Hope is pretty democrat...for social reasons)...In Bucks County...the W's are normally very strong Republican areas...maybe they weren't in 2002...but in a close election, these areas should go for the Republican easily.

So my point is, Swann's itinerary boggles me. Rather than visit swing areas Newtown Twp, or Middletown Twp , or some of the more weak democrat areas (Southampton Twp, Bensalem twp)...Swann picks strongholds in Philly and in Bucks.

I guess that's okay for one visit...but I hope for his own sake he doesn't repeat that same route.

[bullmoose88]

Sadly, I trust Rendell more with the affairs of PA than I do Swann.

But I wanted Scranton to win. Ah well.

[bullmoose88]

Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win?

Nope

Well, there is one.  His name is Tom Ridge.  And personally, that's the race I really wanted to see.

But he isn't running and neither is Schweiker. They are the only two GOPers who had a chance.

Well, if Schweiker has run in '02, Rendell would still be the corrupt asshole mayor of Philadelphia.

Actually, he'd be the retired mayor of Philadelphia regardless.

As for your other comment soulty...I agree...in that we're dry on talent. I don't think the party GOP was/is a personality cult. I just think our stars have run their course, and the problem is, no one bothered creating a second line.

I mean...my old Congressman, Jim Greenwood was thought to be the natural replacement to Specter for the GOP's moderate senate seat. He disappears.

Toomey, the congressman for where my college was located, should have been urged to run in this race instead of fighting a divisive primary. Toomey, i think, could have given Ed a run for his money.

No one has been groomed to step up when the guys who won big in the 90s ran their course....not statewide at least. The state party should be focusing on the Melissa Hart's (though her ideology scares me), Mike Fitzpatricks should they survive what looks to be a strong democratic year in 06.

[bullmoose88]

As for your other comment soulty...I agree...in that we're dry on talent. I don't think the party GOP was/is a personality cult. I just think our stars have run their course, and the problem is, no one bothered creating a second line.

I mean...my old Congressman, Jim Greenwood was thought to be the natural replacement to Specter for the GOP's moderate senate seat. He disappears.

Toomey, the congressman for where my college was located, should have been urged to run in this race instead of fighting a divisive primary. Toomey, i think, could have given Ed a run for his money.

No one has been groomed to step up when the guys who won big in the 90s ran their course....not statewide at least. The state party should be focusing on the Melissa Hart's (though her ideology scares me), Mike Fitzpatricks should they survive what looks to be a strong democratic year in 06.

You basically just backed up what I meant by "personality cult".  The fact is, GOP support in PA has no real depth anymore.  It was mostly based on the strong personalities of a pack of solid leaders.  Now that they have gone, there is no one left to take their places.

Basically, support for the Republicans in this state is a mile wide and two feet deep.  The people of PA are eager to follow strong Republican leadership, but lack an attactment to the party that warrents them to follow us with regular candidates, or during normal times.

I just don't get the idea of personality cult. We agree on everything save the term to describe it. When I hear of personality cult...I think of Kim Jong Il, or Hitler. But thats me.

[bullmoose88]

what the PAGOP needs is some sort of farm system of talent. In the meantime...it could have used a couple of good Pennsylvania Republican names (Schweiker, Scranton, Thornburgh(sp?), Heinz [well forget that one]) to hold the fort.

Though, I don't see some sort of reloading program occuring until the party is kicked out on its ass...

[bullmoose88]

Same as any other ex jock it's all about his sports resume.
Largent,Bunning,Osborne Etc.

And Bunning didn't even play in the state in which he was elected.

[bullmoose88]

These ex-jocks do get bored with their lives once they're done on the playing field, don't they?

Yep. See Heath Shuler in NC.