PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[Smash255]

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

I would say its a safe bet to say this one is locked up.

I wouldn't trust Quinnipiac that much and I would have to wait until the air campaign starts.

In both 1994 and 2002, at this point, the loser was leading.

I'm not basing it off of Quinnipiac as much as the rest of the polls.  Also keep in mind both the 94 & 02 elections didn't involve incumbents, and open elections tradiotnally are more likely to swing back & forth in the run up to Election Day than a race with a sitting Incumbent.

I know the incumbent factor, but these things shift, greatly, at this point.  Even 1982, Ertel was trailing badly, and closed within the last month (and almost won it).

Things can change, however at this point Rendell's chances are VERY VERY good, and it doesn't look like its going to change.

[Keystone Phil]

...and he's doing it on Rendell's turf - http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/news/columnists/14967836.htm

[bullmoose88]

...and he's doing it on Rendell's turf - http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/news/columnists/14967836.htm

Interesting...

The one thing I noticed was that, besides West Philly (what one would consider hardcore democrat turf)...and the W's...Swann didn't visit one swing area in the article (as you can expect Phil...New Hope is pretty democrat...for social reasons)...In Bucks County...the W's are normally very strong Republican areas...maybe they weren't in 2002...but in a close election, these areas should go for the Republican easily.

So my point is, Swann's itinerary boggles me. Rather than visit swing areas Newtown Twp, or Middletown Twp , or some of the more weak democrat areas (Southampton Twp, Bensalem twp)...Swann picks strongholds in Philly and in Bucks.

I guess that's okay for one visit...but I hope for his own sake he doesn't repeat that same route.

[Raoul Takemoto]

I'm new here...can someone explain why an ex-jock and ex-game show host is the GOP favorite for Gov? Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win? Lynn Swann for Governor? That's worse that Arnold in CA.

[J. J.]

I'm new here...can someone explain why an ex-jock and ex-game show host is the GOP favorite for Gov? Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win? Lynn Swann for Governor? That's worse that Arnold in CA.

Two words: Arnold won.

[NewFederalist]

Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win?

Nope

[12th Doctor]

I'm new here...can someone explain why an ex-jock and ex-game show host is the GOP favorite for Gov? Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win? Lynn Swann for Governor? That's worse that Arnold in CA.

Two words: Arnold won.

When was he a game show host?  Anyway, more to it than that.  First, he is black.  Secondly, he played for the Steelers, which, for those of you not from around Western, PA, that is basically a religion.  Thirdly, he is charismatic.  Fourthly, he co-ran the 2004 Bush campaign here in PA, and thus we assumed that he had some sorta knowledge/interest in the issues that was greater than that of the average person.  Fifthly, Because he has a certain command in his personality, the perception was that he was a good leader.

Well:

1) Blacks don't seem to care that he is black, since he has spent zero time targeting them.  I see no evidence that a majority of people in the black community even know that Lynn Swann is running.

2) The fact that he played for the Steelers is probably the only reason he is still in this race at all.

3) He is charismatic, but he hasn't done a damn thing to acctually use it to his advantage.  He has made very few large campaign appearances or TV interviews.

4) He knows LESS about the issues and seems LESS interested in discussing them than the perhaps even the average voter.

5) His campaign is being run by idiots and I see zero evidence that he is significantly personally involved with it, let alone acctually leading the thing.

In conclusion, I regret my vote.  All the things that I had feared before the primary turned out to be absolutely true.  Lynn Swann is, in fact, a total dud.  Rendell would have to make a significant mistake for Swann to win, and I don't think that we would truely be much better off with Swann in the Governor's Mansion, since he seems to be an empty suit.  The best we can hope to do is force the Democrats to spend money on the race that they wouldn't spend otherwise, and I doubt that is going to happen.

[12th Doctor]

Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win?

Nope

Well, there is one.  His name is Tom Ridge.  And personally, that's the race I really wanted to see.

[bullmoose88]

Sadly, I trust Rendell more with the affairs of PA than I do Swann.

But I wanted Scranton to win. Ah well.

[NewFederalist]

Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win?

Nope

Well, there is one.  His name is Tom Ridge.  And personally, that's the race I really wanted to see.

But he isn't running and neither is Schweiker. They are the only two GOPers who had a chance.

[12th Doctor]

Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win?

Nope

Well, there is one.  His name is Tom Ridge.  And personally, that's the race I really wanted to see.

But he isn't running and neither is Schweiker. They are the only two GOPers who had a chance.

Well, if Schweiker has run in '02, Rendell would still be the corrupt asshole mayor of Philadelphia.

[NewFederalist]

Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win?

Nope

Well, there is one.  His name is Tom Ridge.  And personally, that's the race I really wanted to see.

But he isn't running and neither is Schweiker. They are the only two GOPers who had a chance.

Well, if Schweiker has run in '02, Rendell would still be the corrupt asshole mayor of Philadelphia.

Instead of the corrupt asshole governor of Pennsylvania?

[12th Doctor]

Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win?

Nope

Well, there is one.  His name is Tom Ridge.  And personally, that's the race I really wanted to see.

But he isn't running and neither is Schweiker. They are the only two GOPers who had a chance.

Well, if Schweiker has run in '02, Rendell would still be the corrupt asshole mayor of Philadelphia.

Instead of the corrupt asshole governor of Pennsylvania?

Yeah, well the other factor in that race being that I doubt we could have picked a worse candidate than Fisher.  Its not that I regret voting for him, its that I regret the fact that I had no other real choice.

Oddly enough, Swann might acctually prove to be an even worse candidate.  I didn't think that was possible.

The GOP has no real leadership in this state.  We have been living on a prayer for way too long.  When Ridge and Santorum first broke out of the pack, they were dynamic, larger than life figures.  Now Ridge is gone and Santorum is just a petty little ankle bitting cock knocker.  And there is really no one left in the state who can bring any life back into this thing.  GOP rule in this state was basically a personality cult.  We had good people.  Now the well has been poisoned, and beyond redemption, I fear.

[NewFederalist]

Santorum is just a petty little ankle bitting cock knocker. 

You must be aware that Keystone Phil left for Italy today! GREAT line!!

[bullmoose88]

Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win?

Nope

Well, there is one.  His name is Tom Ridge.  And personally, that's the race I really wanted to see.

But he isn't running and neither is Schweiker. They are the only two GOPers who had a chance.

Well, if Schweiker has run in '02, Rendell would still be the corrupt asshole mayor of Philadelphia.

Actually, he'd be the retired mayor of Philadelphia regardless.

As for your other comment soulty...I agree...in that we're dry on talent. I don't think the party GOP was/is a personality cult. I just think our stars have run their course, and the problem is, no one bothered creating a second line.

I mean...my old Congressman, Jim Greenwood was thought to be the natural replacement to Specter for the GOP's moderate senate seat. He disappears.

Toomey, the congressman for where my college was located, should have been urged to run in this race instead of fighting a divisive primary. Toomey, i think, could have given Ed a run for his money.

No one has been groomed to step up when the guys who won big in the 90s ran their course....not statewide at least. The state party should be focusing on the Melissa Hart's (though her ideology scares me), Mike Fitzpatricks should they survive what looks to be a strong democratic year in 06.

[Raoul Takemoto]

To answer an earlier post, Swann hosted a version of "To Tell The Truth" around 1990-91.  Alex Trebek later took over when Swann proved totally awful.  This, combined with carrying a pigskin, qualifies him to be the governor of a major eastern industrial state?

[NewFederalist]

To answer an earlier post, Swann hosted a version of "To Tell The Truth" around 1990-91.  Alex Trebek later took over when Swann proved totally awful.  This, combined with carrying a pigskin, qualifies him to be the governor of a major eastern industrial state?

Just who says we're industrial?

[12th Doctor]

As for your other comment soulty...I agree...in that we're dry on talent. I don't think the party GOP was/is a personality cult. I just think our stars have run their course, and the problem is, no one bothered creating a second line.

I mean...my old Congressman, Jim Greenwood was thought to be the natural replacement to Specter for the GOP's moderate senate seat. He disappears.

Toomey, the congressman for where my college was located, should have been urged to run in this race instead of fighting a divisive primary. Toomey, i think, could have given Ed a run for his money.

No one has been groomed to step up when the guys who won big in the 90s ran their course....not statewide at least. The state party should be focusing on the Melissa Hart's (though her ideology scares me), Mike Fitzpatricks should they survive what looks to be a strong democratic year in 06.

You basically just backed up what I meant by "personality cult".  The fact is, GOP support in PA has no real depth anymore.  It was mostly based on the strong personalities of a pack of solid leaders.  Now that they have gone, there is no one left to take their places.

Basically, support for the Republicans in this state is a mile wide and two feet deep.  The people of PA are eager to follow strong Republican leadership, but lack an attactment to the party that warrents them to follow us with regular candidates, or during normal times.

[bullmoose88]

As for your other comment soulty...I agree...in that we're dry on talent. I don't think the party GOP was/is a personality cult. I just think our stars have run their course, and the problem is, no one bothered creating a second line.

I mean...my old Congressman, Jim Greenwood was thought to be the natural replacement to Specter for the GOP's moderate senate seat. He disappears.

Toomey, the congressman for where my college was located, should have been urged to run in this race instead of fighting a divisive primary. Toomey, i think, could have given Ed a run for his money.

No one has been groomed to step up when the guys who won big in the 90s ran their course....not statewide at least. The state party should be focusing on the Melissa Hart's (though her ideology scares me), Mike Fitzpatricks should they survive what looks to be a strong democratic year in 06.

You basically just backed up what I meant by "personality cult".  The fact is, GOP support in PA has no real depth anymore.  It was mostly based on the strong personalities of a pack of solid leaders.  Now that they have gone, there is no one left to take their places.

Basically, support for the Republicans in this state is a mile wide and two feet deep.  The people of PA are eager to follow strong Republican leadership, but lack an attactment to the party that warrents them to follow us with regular candidates, or during normal times.

I just don't get the idea of personality cult. We agree on everything save the term to describe it. When I hear of personality cult...I think of Kim Jong Il, or Hitler. But thats me.

[12th Doctor]

To answer an earlier post, Swann hosted a version of "To Tell The Truth" around 1990-91.  Alex Trebek later took over when Swann proved totally awful.  This, combined with carrying a pigskin, qualifies him to be the governor of a major eastern industrial state?

Two things you don't understand about PA:

1) We are not much of an industrial state anymore.  Most of the factory jobs left 20 years ago.  Finance, high tech and small-medium sized industrial plants make up most of the non-service/non-tourism jobs now.  There are a few large industrial plants left, like the GE plant here in Erie, for instance, but those are few and most of them scaled back a while ago.

The image that most people have of Pittsburgh, with tall smoke stacks billowing out smoke while molten steel is processed in mighty blast furnaces no longer remotely resembles the truth, and hasn't for going on 30 years.  Pittsburgh has one steel mill left in the entire city and most of the people there either work for Hienz, PNC Bank, petro-chemicals, health care, laboratory research and development, computer tech or something resembling one of the above.  The city still maintains a fairly working class mentality, but even this is starting to role back.

This is the case for most cities and towns in PA.  Those that have any major, non-service employers left at all likely are not employed in heavy industry and sitting here, I can think of no real acceptions, esspecially in the old industrial outskirts of Pittsburgh, in the West-Central part of the state, like Altoona, Johnstown and even into the east, like Harrisburg and Scranton.  Those small cities, and the towns that they support are basically dying off, with a few small companies moving in to stop the bleeding.

I think Pittsburgh is headed toward a revival, and Erie stays alive due to good geographic location.  Other than that, I don't see a lot of hope for the next few decades.

2)  Once again, Steelers=Religion in the Western part of the state.

[12th Doctor]

As for your other comment soulty...I agree...in that we're dry on talent. I don't think the party GOP was/is a personality cult. I just think our stars have run their course, and the problem is, no one bothered creating a second line.

I mean...my old Congressman, Jim Greenwood was thought to be the natural replacement to Specter for the GOP's moderate senate seat. He disappears.

Toomey, the congressman for where my college was located, should have been urged to run in this race instead of fighting a divisive primary. Toomey, i think, could have given Ed a run for his money.

No one has been groomed to step up when the guys who won big in the 90s ran their course....not statewide at least. The state party should be focusing on the Melissa Hart's (though her ideology scares me), Mike Fitzpatricks should they survive what looks to be a strong democratic year in 06.

You basically just backed up what I meant by "personality cult".  The fact is, GOP support in PA has no real depth anymore.  It was mostly based on the strong personalities of a pack of solid leaders.  Now that they have gone, there is no one left to take their places.

Basically, support for the Republicans in this state is a mile wide and two feet deep.  The people of PA are eager to follow strong Republican leadership, but lack an attactment to the party that warrents them to follow us with regular candidates, or during normal times.

I just don't get the idea of personality cult. We agree on everything save the term to describe it. When I hear of personality cult...I think of Kim Jong Il, or Hitler. But thats me.

I'm thinking to a much less extreme extent.  As I just described it is what I mean.  Basically, a devotion to certain figures, like Ridge (who is basically the only one who isn't tainted now, of the orginal handful of guys), more than a devotion to the Republican Party.

[bullmoose88]

what the PAGOP needs is some sort of farm system of talent. In the meantime...it could have used a couple of good Pennsylvania Republican names (Schweiker, Scranton, Thornburgh(sp?), Heinz [well forget that one]) to hold the fort.

Though, I don't see some sort of reloading program occuring until the party is kicked out on its ass...

[12th Doctor]

what the PAGOP needs is some sort of farm system of talent. In the meantime...it could have used a couple of good Pennsylvania Republican names (Schweiker, Scranton, Thornburgh(sp?), Heinz [well forget that one]) to hold the fort.

Though, I don't see some sort of reloading program occuring until the party is kicked out on its ass...

Well, from all indications, the ass kicking is only a few months off.

[Raoul Takemoto]

Can someone - anyone - tell my why they support Swann without mentioning his football career? Where does he stand on the issues? Why is he evidently the most qualified GOP candidate to head the state?

[NewFederalist]

Can someone - anyone - tell my why they support Swann without mentioning his football career? Where does he stand on the issues? Why is he evidently the most qualified GOP candidate to head the state?

Good questions. There are no easy answers. But let me tell you about his football career...