Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.
It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
Bc you’re a hack to you party? And you don’t want Florida to be a red state when it clearly is trending that way-fast.
Maybe. It was like 13 points to the right of the nation as recently as 1988. The reason I wouldn't give up on Florida yet as a Democrat is because
1) The isn't that much more room for the large conservative Leisure Class to grow that much more.
2) The lockdowns scared a lot of people in the tourism industry away from Democrats when Republicans offered to ignore he pandemic
3) We don't know how the new minimum wage will change the dynamics of the state. Maybe it will make it harder to support a large Leisure Class or change who employees people in the state.
4) On the local level, Democrats haven't really tried in Florida for a generation now. $100M over the course of 6 weeks isn't the same as $10M over the course of 6 months.
Then again, maybe Florida and Arizona/Georgia/Texas are switching places because
1) Immigration and Civil Rights aren't as big of issue to local minority communities as having an expansionist foreign policy or being "against socialism". Attitudes on things like abortion aren't as conservative as you think, however.
2) Maybe the COVID thing will be the reverse version of the Farm Crisis that only subsides over the course of 25+ years. In the 2020s and 2030s, Florida might be the unique conservative urban state the way Iowa was that weird liberal rural state.
3) Florida really isn't that "urban".
4) Some of Florida's minorities are miscategorized and many of them would pass as and otherwise consider themselves white except to maybe "own teh libz".