When will the UK leave the EU?

[urutzizu]

Voted Option 7. Mark my words, the UK will never leave the EU. In the end, Brexit will be canceled completely.

civil war if that happens.

Not if it happens via another referendum.

But then a new People's vote on the People's vote will be called

Given that this particular issue splits the UK's electorate down the middle and democracies usually hold elections in regular intervals it actually wouldn't be entirely unjustified to conduct a Brexit referendum every five years. The problem is that the European Union would most certainly like to see a long-term commitment here instead of having to constantly operate on the assumption that the UK could drop out any other decade, making the idea of a Brexit referendum every five years unfeasible in practice. The alternative solution is of course the break-up of the United Kingdom with Northern Ireland reunited with Ireland, an independent Scotland within the EU, and a England/Wales rump state which exists separate from the EU. As we all know, the latter scenario may in fact come to pass one day.

I just want this whole leaving thing to end, and if they in a generation or two show willingness to return with fewer opt-outs than the 1st time, that can always be discussed.

I'm personally in no rush to see it end, to be honest. The issue doesn't really affect me in my personal life or at least far less than a no-deal Brexit potentially would. Besides, I'm interested in observing political processes and even if I were tired of it I just could stop reading the news articles about it.

Trouble is that it is keeping the EU in a sense of paralysis. With Britain leaving there would finally be the biggest Stumbling Block for any EU reform gone. Also it is dividing the EU on foreign policy, right when a common line vis-a-vis Russia, Turkey, China etc. is so desperately needed.

I would still rather have the UK in however, even with the Opt-outs, there is no real reason other than dogmatism to force the UK into Schengen or the Euro.
The problem is just that a referendum wont solve the Issue, even if remain wins, the divisions will remain and the UK-EU issue will haunt Europe for decades to come.

[brucejoel99]

Voted Option 7. Mark my words, the UK will never leave the EU. In the end, Brexit will be canceled completely.

civil war if that happens.

cool story bro

[Fudotei]

The existing Withdrawal Agreement seems acceptable to the House, it just needs a period of review. Brussels is willing to grant that up to Jan 31. The various amendments (customs union, second referendum) are unlikely to pass

[CumbrianLefty]

Another referendum probably doesn't have the numbers, I agree (a shame IMO)

But it is widely claimed the government is worried a CU vote might be very tight.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Voted Option 7. Mark my words, the UK will never leave the EU. In the end, Brexit will be canceled completely.

civil war if that happens.

If you say so, Flyersfan232.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Voted Option 7. Mark my words, the UK will never leave the EU. In the end, Brexit will be canceled completely.

civil war if that happens.

Not if it happens via another referendum.

But then a new People's vote on the People's vote will be called

Given that this particular issue splits the UK's electorate down the middle and democracies usually hold elections in regular intervals it actually wouldn't be entirely unjustified to conduct a Brexit referendum every five years. The problem is that the European Union would most certainly like to see a long-term commitment here instead of having to constantly operate on the assumption that the UK could drop out any other decade, making the idea of a Brexit referendum every five years unfeasible in practice. The alternative solution is of course the break-up of the United Kingdom with Northern Ireland reunited with Ireland, an independent Scotland within the EU, and a England/Wales rump state which exists separate from the EU. As we all know, the latter scenario may in fact come to pass one day.

I just want this whole leaving thing to end, and if they in a generation or two show willingness to return with fewer opt-outs than the 1st time, that can always be discussed.

I'm personally in no rush to see it end, to be honest. The issue doesn't really affect me in my personal life or at least far less than a no-deal Brexit potentially would. Besides, I'm interested in observing political processes and even if I were tired of it I just could stop reading the news articles about it.

Trouble is that it is keeping the EU in a sense of paralysis. With Britain leaving there would finally be the biggest Stumbling Block for any EU reform gone. Also it is dividing the EU on foreign policy, right when a common line vis-a-vis Russia, Turkey, China etc. is so desperately needed.

I would still rather have the UK in however, even with the Opt-outs, there is no real reason other than dogmatism to force the UK into Schengen or the Euro.
The problem is just that a referendum wont solve the Issue, even if remain wins, the divisions will remain and the UK-EU issue will haunt Europe for decades to come.

The obvious, reasonable solution would be to have the UK formally leave the EU but remain in a close association (say, under the Norway or Switzerland model). But of course the Brexiteers have radicalized too much to ever accept that, even though it perfectly fulfills the mandate of the referendum.

[Omega21]

Voted Option 7. Mark my words, the UK will never leave the EU. In the end, Brexit will be canceled completely.

civil war if that happens.

Not if it happens via another referendum.

But then a new People's vote on the People's vote will be called

Given that this particular issue splits the UK's electorate down the middle and democracies usually hold elections in regular intervals it actually wouldn't be entirely unjustified to conduct a Brexit referendum every five years. The problem is that the European Union would most certainly like to see a long-term commitment here instead of having to constantly operate on the assumption that the UK could drop out any other decade, making the idea of a Brexit referendum every five years unfeasible in practice. The alternative solution is of course the break-up of the United Kingdom with Northern Ireland reunited with Ireland, an independent Scotland within the EU, and a England/Wales rump state which exists separate from the EU. As we all know, the latter scenario may in fact come to pass one day.

I just want this whole leaving thing to end, and if they in a generation or two show willingness to return with fewer opt-outs than the 1st time, that can always be discussed.

I'm personally in no rush to see it end, to be honest. The issue doesn't really affect me in my personal life or at least far less than a no-deal Brexit potentially would. Besides, I'm interested in observing political processes and even if I were tired of it I just could stop reading the news articles about it.

Trouble is that it is keeping the EU in a sense of paralysis. With Britain leaving there would finally be the biggest Stumbling Block for any EU reform gone. Also it is dividing the EU on foreign policy, right when a common line vis-a-vis Russia, Turkey, China etc. is so desperately needed.

I would still rather have the UK in however, even with the Opt-outs, there is no real reason other than dogmatism to force the UK into Schengen or the Euro.
The problem is just that a referendum wont solve the Issue, even if remain wins, the divisions will remain and the UK-EU issue will haunt Europe for decades to come.

The obvious, reasonable solution would be to have the UK formally leave the EU but remain in a close association (say, under the Norway or Switzerland model). But of course the Brexiteers have radicalized too much to ever accept that, even though it perfectly fulfills the mandate of the referendum.

And then the EU would have a Norway in which 50%+ of the people are bitching about the relationship and want it cancelled...

[urutzizu]

The obvious, reasonable solution would be to have the UK formally leave the EU but remain in a close association (say, under the Norway or Switzerland model). But of course the Brexiteers have radicalized too much to ever accept that, even though it perfectly fulfills the mandate of the referendum.

I am not sure really. Norway/Switzerland are basically sacrificing all of the benefits of EU membership just to still have to follow its laws, free movement etc. The one exception to this is agriculture/fishing, which of *huge* importance to Norway of course, but not really to the UK. Switzerland also has this constant Identity Crisis about the EU, with the Migration Referendum and it ultimately being ignored by the Bundesrat, and the EU is increasingly impatient with the Swiss approach of dealing with everything in Bilaterals, the main reason it is going to be forced to accept the Rahmenabkommen proposed by the EU which will mean that Switzerland accepts new EU rules automatically, also something very controversial in Switzerland.
This sort of relationship can somewhat work when one is talking about a very small state that would have negligible influence within the EU anyway, but for a country like the UK, that would be a huage actual loss of Sovereignty with no real upsides, except having technically, in name delivered the Referendum result. It really seems like something that is going to make noone happy.

The crucial demand for most people in the Referendum was controlling Immigration from EU27, and I think without addressing that, most leave voters would not be content. In the same way that, as you rightly pointed out, there seems to be collective ignorance among Brexiteer Politicians that Remainers do actually exist, and that their concerns matter too, this issue seems to be overlooked or simplified by many Remain politicians to a "Yeah, but Free Movement is a economic plus" or a "we can solve that with more social welfare". There is a big cultural impact of EU migration that is very easy to spot when visiting places like Swindon or Ealing, and there seems to be collective amnesia on the remain side about that. The Policy of the Jo Swinsons et al. to literally just overturn the referendum result without any public vote or anything, is a symptom that radicalisation is not only confined to the Brexit side. There are those liberals (the #FBPE crowd) who see and always saw the Brexit vote as a aberration, a mistake, with complete ignorance of the full-on culture war that they are going to let loose.

Personally, I think it is too late for any consensus on the Subject and any hope for peace and tranquility in Britain over the next few decades. What I would have liked to see happen, was right after the Referendum a National Unity Lab-Con Government, and then getting a deal like the one that May negotiated. For all the hate it got, it did try at least to address and balance both the fundamental leave and remain concerns, quite successfully in my Opinion. Ultimately both the Majority of Remain and Leave politicians killed it off because it did not meet their perceived partisan interests and because they thought that they could achieve Total Victory for their side at some later stage. Now, who knows how it is going to end, but it seems like the Remain Labourites are going to regret that, and the Country is going to pay the price.   
 

[Nill]

Don't think that UK will leave EU. Even so, soon England will return back

[Nill]

I voted for Option 4 (Sometime in 2020, but after January 31).

This is based on the assumption that the UK will never leave without a deal, and that Parliament will never approve of a deal, leaving a second referendum as the only viable option to actually pass a deal in practice. However, it may still take a while for Parliament to accept that.

Think UK will return to Europe soon

[Suburbia]

Soon.

It has to happen.

The will of the people cannot be ignored.

Get it done.

[Tintrlvr]

Voted Option 7. Mark my words, the UK will never leave the EU. In the end, Brexit will be canceled completely.

civil war if that happens.

Not if it happens via another referendum.

But then a new People's vote on the People's vote will be called

10 years from now, Brexit would have no hope of winning a referendum. So the pattern of repeated referendums would end rather quickly. Quebec doesn't hold independence referendums on a regular basis anymore.

I voted Never, but I wouldn't be shocked by January 2020. I'd be pretty shocked by any other result than those two, to be honest. I'm not sure what election result could cause Brexit to happen but not until after January 2020.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another referendum held not long after Jan 2020 must have a decent chance of voting to leave again.

[mileslunn]

If Tories win majority which is highly likely, then on January 31, 2020.  If a hung parliament then another referendum gets held or another election if DUP holds balance of power so maybe late 2020 or not at all.  Still since Tory majority is extremely likely, I think January 31, 2020 is best bet.