2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[wesmoorenerd]

Shalala is our worst candidate this cycle by far. Stop calling out Perry Gershon and Tracy Mitrano or whoever, she is awful. Anything but Safe D in this seat with this cycle under these circumstances should be considered unacceptable shame on her. Honestly though I still think she wins and I want her to win, but this is ridiculous.

I sorta have to agree. Gershon and Mitrano are unremarkable at worst. Cockburn, Cox, and Wallace are more actively "bad" but Shalala is worse than all of them combined. Imagine what an actual competent candidate like JJR would be getting in this district right now!

[BudgieForce]

It does have a B+ rating at 538

Doesn't matter really who is up by couple of points right now, the point is it's competitve and it was to be among easiest pickups for Dems. So this district, Curbelo's and Hurd's all going much much better for Republicans than thought off. Draw your conclusion.

So does Emerson.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/CoronadoPolling/status/1050529265308057601

I cannot believe this I’m sorry.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/CoronadoPolling/status/1050529265308057601

Looks like a new independent firm? This is impressive, if true, and goes against the doom narrative about Latino support for Dems.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/CoronadoPolling/status/1050529265308057601

Looks like a new independent firm? This is impressive, if true, and goes against the doom narrative about Latino support for Dems.

They don't even seem to have a website or a full polling report.

Looks like overtime politics, unless they can establish that they are actually conducting a poll, instead of just making up numbers, pretending that they are a poll, and tweeting them out.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It seems pretty credible to me.

[Xing]

Yeah, that seems about as believable as Rossi being up 10 or Shalala being behind.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Yeah, that seems about as believable as Rossi being up 10 or Shalala being behind.

It's a Clinton + 16 district. Why would Valadao losing be surprising?

[ON Progressive]

Yeah, that seems about as believable as Rossi being up 10 or Shalala being behind.

It's a Clinton + 16 district. Why would Valadao losing be surprising?

It would require incredible Hispanic turnout compared to what's the norm. If Hispanic turnout really is high though, this is believable.

[Strong Candidate]

https://twitter.com/CoronadoPolling/status/1050529265308057601

This has got to be a fake poll. A firm nobody's ever heard of suddenly popping up on Twitter, with no website that I can find based on a quick Goggle search and only 3 followers and showing a Shock Poll!!!!! does not seem legit. The poll's crosstabs are also garbage. I'm supposed to buy that Cox is only leading Hispanics by 4 points, losing whites by 27 points and still leading overall? Throw this in the trash and incinerate it in a furnace.

[Ebsy]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-6518-d0b1-a57e-ed9bb4d40001

Politico has a Mason-Dixon (yikes) poll showing Shalala trailing in in FL-27. Both Gillum and Nelson lead by 4. It only has Trump at -3, 43/46 in this district, which stretches belief a bit.

Shalala (Dem): 42
Salazar (GOP): 44

Undecideds look like they lean Dem, so not really any reason to freak out.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why did they nominate Shalala? What decade is this?

[Strong Candidate]

https://twitter.com/CoronadoPolling/status/1050564190979657728


This result makes sense to me. Kinda sucks, thought Lucy was a bit underrated.

Please stop sharing these guys.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/CoronadoPolling/status/1050519846205706242

I guess we have a bunch of polls to look forward to from this BRAND NEW firm.

[OneJ]

Off-topic, but a public poll for South Dakota Governor? I must be dreaming right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not buying that Coronado is a real pollster until they provide more background information than a brand-new Twitter account.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Off-topic, but a public poll for South Dakota Governor? I must be dreaming right now.

These are not actual polls. It is someone just making up some numbers who made a twitter account in order to tweet them out in the hope that some gullible people would notice them and that they would in some then alter the media narrative.

[Ebsy]

A search of Arizona's business registry does not turn up a Coronado Polling or Coronado Research.

[ON Progressive]

Off-topic, but a public poll for South Dakota Governor? I must be dreaming right now.

These are not actual polls. It is someone just making up some numbers who made a twitter account in order to tweet them out in the hope that some gullible people would notice them and that they would in some then alter the media narrative.

It's probably one of those PredictIt "pollsters" to try to screw with the markets there.

[BudgieForce]

Reminds me of Overtime polls. Except, Overtime had the benefit of guessing the Iowa Caucus correctly so people believed they were real. But then they horribly bombed super Tuesday. Ahhhh, simpler times.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Reminds me of Overtime polls. Except, Overtime had the benefit of guessing the Iowa Caucus correctly so people believed they were real. But then they horribly bombed super Tuesday. Ahhhh, simpler times.

Please provide a citation for the existence of this poll thing. I want to hear more.

[BudgieForce]

Reminds me of Overtime polls. Except, Overtime had the benefit of guessing the Iowa Caucus correctly so people believed they were real. But then they horribly bombed super Tuesday. Ahhhh, simpler times.

Please provide a citation for the existence of this poll thing. I want to hear more.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=224691.0

Looking back on it, they actually did a decent job at guessing both Iowa and Nevada.

But then they showed Hillary winning the Arkansas Primary by 5 points and the rest is history.

Its actually kind of fun to read some of the posters slowly piece together the fact that the guy running Overtime was just making things up. 

[Adam Griffin]

Reminds me of Overtime polls. Except, Overtime had the benefit of guessing the Iowa Caucus correctly so people believed they were real. But then they horribly bombed super Tuesday. Ahhhh, simpler times.

Please provide a citation for the existence of this poll thing. I want to hear more.

We pretty much figured out they were fake as hell here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=224691.msg4848765#msg4848765

[Ebsy]

I remember the great inquisition against Overtime Politics, and who was most fervent in defending them as real. (Wulfric of course)

[IceSpear]

Shalala is a horrendous candidate but probably survives in the end. Gillum and Nelson only up 4 seems off as well.

I'm sure Atlas will ignore the bolded since it is inconvenient to their Shalala hatred boner and goes against their narratives, but if this poll is remotely accurate (it isn't) say hello to Gov. DeSantis and Sen. Scott.

Actually, if Shalala is only underperforming Gillum and Nelson by 6 points, then she's going to win by double digits.