2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 131192 times)
bilaps
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« Reply #1225 on: October 10, 2018, 06:22:17 PM »
CLF has Rodney Davis up 13 in IL-13
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new_patomic
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« Reply #1226 on: October 10, 2018, 07:01:44 PM »
Quote from: bilaps on October 10, 2018, 06:22:17 PM
CLF has Rodney Davis up 13 in IL-13

Gonna call trash on this.

You don't spend $1M on incumbents who you think are going to win by double digits.
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DataGuy
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« Reply #1227 on: October 10, 2018, 07:06:14 PM »
NRCC has cancelled their ad buys in TX-23 for the remainder of the campaign. The polls must be looking very good for Hurd.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #1228 on: October 10, 2018, 07:20:54 PM »
Quote from: DataGuy on October 10, 2018, 07:06:14 PM
NRCC has cancelled their ad buys in TX-23 for the remainder of the campaign. The polls must be looking very good for Hurd.

Not surprising. Seems like democrats havent been spending all that much here either.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #1229 on: October 10, 2018, 09:05:47 PM »
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on October 10, 2018, 01:46:34 PM
Quote from: Alabama_Indy10 on October 10, 2018, 01:42:43 PM
How long did it take you to type all of that?

Longer than the time FBI was allowed to conduct its supplemental Kavanaugh background investigation.

So you've been working on this for the last week?
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #1230 on: October 10, 2018, 09:39:44 PM »
Quote from: DataGuy on October 10, 2018, 07:06:14 PM
NRCC has cancelled their ad buys in TX-23 for the remainder of the campaign. The polls must be looking very good for Hurd.

The polls must be looking really bad for Hurd. This is definitely a triage.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #1231 on: October 10, 2018, 10:40:33 PM »
Quote from: Jimmie on October 10, 2018, 03:30:41 PM
Democrats lead by a sizable 57% to 35% margin among likely voters in Illinois on a question asking voters whether they plan to vote for a Democrat or Republican in their local House race. 

How big did Democrats win by in 2016?
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Pericles
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« Reply #1232 on: October 10, 2018, 10:43:37 PM »
Quote from: Zyzz on October 10, 2018, 10:40:33 PM
Quote from: Jimmie on October 10, 2018, 03:30:41 PM
Democrats lead by a sizable 57% to 35% margin among likely voters in Illinois on a question asking voters whether they plan to vote for a Democrat or Republican in their local House race. 

How big did Democrats win by in 2016?

By a margin of 8% from a quick search.
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Xing
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« Reply #1233 on: October 10, 2018, 11:49:27 PM »
Quote from: #KavanaughForPrison on October 10, 2018, 09:39:44 PM
Quote from: DataGuy on October 10, 2018, 07:06:14 PM
NRCC has cancelled their ad buys in TX-23 for the remainder of the campaign. The polls must be looking very good for Hurd.

The polls must be looking really bad for Hurd. This is definitely a triage.

lol
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1234 on: October 10, 2018, 11:54:05 PM »
Quote from: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 10, 2018, 04:13:50 PM
Every poll should be believed and heard. Rossi and tester are both up by double digits

LOL
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1235 on: October 10, 2018, 11:56:03 PM »
Quote from: #KavanaughForPrison on October 10, 2018, 09:39:44 PM
Quote from: DataGuy on October 10, 2018, 07:06:14 PM
NRCC has cancelled their ad buys in TX-23 for the remainder of the campaign. The polls must be looking very good for Hurd.

The polls must be looking really bad for Hurd. This is definitely a triage.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #1236 on: October 11, 2018, 02:15:49 AM »
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ukNQQfRg7u0YMq8eQ6ZVug250DmqHrKs/view?usp=drivesdk

NY-27 Tulchin (McMurray internal): McMurray (D) 42, Collins (R-inc) 42
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #1237 on: October 11, 2018, 06:33:31 AM »
Collins won by 35 points in 2016!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1238 on: October 11, 2018, 07:28:44 AM »
Quote from: #KavanaughForPrison on October 10, 2018, 09:39:44 PM
Quote from: DataGuy on October 10, 2018, 07:06:14 PM
NRCC has cancelled their ad buys in TX-23 for the remainder of the campaign. The polls must be looking very good for Hurd.

The polls must be looking really bad for Hurd. This is definitely a triage.

Yes, but not in the direction you're thinking of.  Remember that triage is sorting into three categories: those who need immediate help, those who are beyond help, and those in good enough shape they don't need (immediate) help.  Hurd is much more likely in the third group than the second.
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bilaps
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« Reply #1239 on: October 11, 2018, 07:34:01 AM »
That Elway poll... 538 rated Elway A+
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SN2903
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« Reply #1240 on: October 11, 2018, 07:51:06 AM »
Statistical deadhead in the RCP average!
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Also Sinema is only up less than 1 percent in the average in the Arizona race!
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Politician
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« Reply #1241 on: October 11, 2018, 08:02:10 AM »
D+13 generic ballot doesn't exist?
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YE
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« Reply #1242 on: October 11, 2018, 08:04:56 AM »
NEVADA POLLING.
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SN2903
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« Reply #1243 on: October 11, 2018, 08:08:24 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 11, 2018, 08:04:46 AM
Quote from: SN2903 on October 11, 2018, 07:51:06 AM
Statistical deadhead in the RCP average!
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Also Sinema is only up less than 1 percent in the average in the Arizona race!

Weren't you the one who was gloating about how Trump's approval rating was at 44% on the RCP average and anticipating that it would continue to climb?
If Trump is at 44 it means he is really at 50. He won with like a 40 percent favorable rating and got 46 percent of the vote.
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SN2903
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« Reply #1244 on: October 11, 2018, 08:09:19 AM »
Midterm polling is different than presidential.
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YE
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« Reply #1245 on: October 11, 2018, 08:10:59 AM »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada,_2010

Senator Sharron Angle agrees.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #1246 on: October 11, 2018, 08:18:19 AM »
Not to these small minded individuals no.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1247 on: October 11, 2018, 08:22:43 AM »
Heller can still lose, even if Dems lose 1 seat or 2, can't say the same about SISOLAK in the gov race, who has been behind 2/6 polls done on race
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1248 on: October 11, 2018, 08:48:35 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 11, 2018, 08:15:17 AM
Quote from: SN2903 on October 11, 2018, 08:08:24 AM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 11, 2018, 08:04:46 AM
Quote from: SN2903 on October 11, 2018, 07:51:06 AM
Statistical deadhead in the RCP average!
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Also Sinema is only up less than 1 percent in the average in the Arizona race!

Weren't you the one who was gloating about how Trump's approval rating was at 44% on the RCP average and anticipating that it would continue to climb?
If Trump is at 44 it means he is really at 50. He won with like a 40 percent favorable rating and got 46 percent of the vote.

Ignoring that someone can cast a vote for someone that he/she considers unfavorable AND your arbitrarily adding numbers, you're assuming that the gap between favorability and the percentage of votes cast remains constant.  

Let's take your "model".  Obama won "with like" a +27 approval rating and 52.9% of the vote.  Let's then take his approval rating at this point in his presidency (~45-48%) and add that +27 rating.  So, his "SN2903 Approval Rating" would be in the mid-70's, far from even the 50% approval rating that your "system" gives Trump.  

See? I can randomly add numbers here and there too.  

And Trump's currently approval rating on RCP is around 41-42%, so even if we assign that random +6%, his approval rating still falls short of fifty. 

Good rebuttal, but he's actually at 43% on RCP. Tongue
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1249 on: October 11, 2018, 08:55:52 AM »
Quote from: SN2903 on October 11, 2018, 08:08:24 AM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 11, 2018, 08:04:46 AM
Quote from: SN2903 on October 11, 2018, 07:51:06 AM
Statistical deadhead in the RCP average!
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

Also Sinema is only up less than 1 percent in the average in the Arizona race!

Weren't you the one who was gloating about how Trump's approval rating was at 44% on the RCP average and anticipating that it would continue to climb?
If Trump is at 44 it means he is really at 50. He won with like a 40 percent favorable rating and got 46 percent of the vote.

Favorability and approval are two different...

Oh, forget it.  You analysis is wrong in so many ways that I'm not going to waste my time.
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