Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

What makes it so funny is that just recently, Kemp decided to go after Abrams over matters of sexual assault, now suddenly are wilting flowers when the favor is returned:

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams campaign launched a radio spot in the Valdosta media market narrated by attorney Benjamin Crump (he represented Trayvon Martin’s family dieing the Zimmerman trial). The ad highlights Kemp’s voter suppression tactics and how he tried to charge the Quitman 10 with felonies for registering black citizens to vote (they were exonerated).

Read about the Quitman 10 here:

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/av4nzb/the-quitman-10-2-and-voter-suppression-in-modern-georgia-715

Also absentee ballots dropped today! Voting is going on now. Abrams sent out 1 million absentee applications that were filled out already. All the voter has to do is sign and put their birth date. VBM is being pushed heavily in South Georgia.

ETA: What is the easiest way to make a county map that I can post here? I want to post my prediction for an Abrams victory.

[Podgy the Bear]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

How does that compare to previous years?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I mentioned this in the special election megathread too, but for those that don't read it:

There will be a new special in GA HD-28 on December 4 to replace a previous result that has been invalidated due to many voters receiving the wrong ballots (more than enough to overcome the razor-thin margin in the original election).  This is a Republican primary, but effectively a general election because no Democrat was running in this very conservative district.

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/redo-georgia-house-election-ordered-after-voters-cast-wrong-ballots/P3r7UmYVpsOAZMQoBin9vI/

[Podgy the Bear]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

How does that compare to previous years?

I don't know--it sounded pretty good!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Nevermind. I got it. This is non-Atlas colors btw.

ETA: Seminole was supposed to be for Kemp



Abrams has been practically living in rural Georgia these past few weeks. I think she will attempt to flip Wilkes, Screven, Meriwether, Peach, Taylor, Marion, Webster, Early, Baker, Mitchell, Decatur, and Brooks counties. Some of these should be easy flips because they were Obama counties that may revert back with increased black participation. Ben Hill, Telfair, and McIntosh will be the suprises of the night where she ekes out wins with less than 50 votes. Turner will be close and could flip Abrams. I left it in Kemp's column.

Of course she will ratchet up turnout in the Metro ATL area. Distancing herself from Kemp as much as she can in Rockdale, Henry, Newton, and Douglas. Holding Kemp under 15 in Clayton, under 20 in DeKalb, and under 35 in Fulton.

Using her huge canvass operation to win Cobb by 4-5 points and Gwinnett by 8-10 points. Both of these counties each have a substantial number of paid canvassers who spend 10 hours a day knocking doors for Stacey.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

How does that compare to previous years?

I don't know--it sounded pretty good!

Have they received actual ballots or just applications for a ballot?

According to this there were 8,283 votes by mail in DeKalb in 2014 and Jason Carter won 66 percent of them.

[Podgy the Bear]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

How does that compare to previous years?

I don't know--it sounded pretty good!

Have they received actual ballots or just applications for a ballot?

According to this there were 8,283 votes by mail in DeKalb in 2014 and Jason Carter won 66 percent of them.

It is applications, not ballots received (my bad).  They are running almost double at this point in 2014.  Of course, many applications are never sent/not in time, but we could be looking at 15,000 ballots by Election Day (and I would think a higher percentage than Jason Carter's 66), as this is a specific voter strategy by the Abrams campaign.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

How does that compare to previous years?

I don't know--it sounded pretty good!

Have they received actual ballots or just applications for a ballot?

According to this there were 8,283 votes by mail in DeKalb in 2014 and Jason Carter won 66 percent of them.

It is applications, not ballots received (my bad).  They are running almost double at this point in 2014.  Of course, many applications are never sent/not in time, but we could be looking at 15,000 ballots by Election Day (and I would think a higher percentage than Jason Carter's 66), as this is a specific voter strategy by the Abrams campaign.

Cool! And the VBM applications were specifically sent to low propensity voters who skip midterms, so I don't think a significant increase in vote by mail in Abrams-friendly territory would be cannibalizing the early in person voting or Election Day voting at all.

ETA: DGA added Georgia to their #UnrigtheMap program, meaning GA will join 8 other states that the DGA plans on investing $40 million in to elect Democratic governors who will block gerrymandering in their respective states.

https://democraticgovernors.org/news/dga-adds-georgia-to-unrig-the-map-program-announces-major-redistricting-investment/

[Rookie Yinzer]

Joe Biden will be stumping with our next Governor next Thursday.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/biden-campaign-with-abrams-georgia-next-week/UVfgdDcA4axUApqrb66J7I/

[ON Progressive]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

How does that compare to previous years?

I don't know--it sounded pretty good!

Have they received actual ballots or just applications for a ballot?

According to this there were 8,283 votes by mail in DeKalb in 2014 and Jason Carter won 66 percent of them.

It is applications, not ballots received (my bad).  They are running almost double at this point in 2014.  Of course, many applications are never sent/not in time, but we could be looking at 15,000 ballots by Election Day (and I would think a higher percentage than Jason Carter's 66), as this is a specific voter strategy by the Abrams campaign.

Cool! And the VBM applications were specifically sent to low propensity voters who skip midterms, so I don't think a significant increase in vote by mail in Abrams-friendly territory would be cannibalizing the early in person voting or Election Day voting at all.

I feel like the "cannibalizing the election day vote" thing is a total myth in the first place, honestly.

[Virginiá]

I feel like the "cannibalizing the election day vote" thing is a total myth in the first place, honestly.

How come? It totally makes sense why it would happen. In 2016, the Clinton campaign had us pushing people to do early voting hard (at least in my area), so I know for sure I got a lot of first-time early voters to go, or at least so they said. It stands to reason that people who may have voted on election day vote early once or twice, and then they start to build a habit of it. This becomes compounded when a campaign's strategy is built around pushing early voting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The absentee ballot push looks to be great strategy--especially for the minority population centers.  I spoke with a lady today working DeKalb County--they have received close to 7000 ballots so far.

How does that compare to previous years?

I don't know--it sounded pretty good!

Have they received actual ballots or just applications for a ballot?

According to this there were 8,283 votes by mail in DeKalb in 2014 and Jason Carter won 66 percent of them.

It is applications, not ballots received (my bad).  They are running almost double at this point in 2014.  Of course, many applications are never sent/not in time, but we could be looking at 15,000 ballots by Election Day (and I would think a higher percentage than Jason Carter's 66), as this is a specific voter strategy by the Abrams campaign.

Cool! And the VBM applications were specifically sent to low propensity voters who skip midterms, so I don't think a significant increase in vote by mail in Abrams-friendly territory would be cannibalizing the early in person voting or Election Day voting at all.

I feel like the "cannibalizing the election day vote" thing is a total myth in the first place, honestly.

The GA-06 special election would like a word.

[ON Progressive]

I feel like the "cannibalizing the election day vote" thing is a total myth in the first place, honestly.

How come? It totally makes sense why it would happen. In 2016, the Clinton campaign had us pushing people to do early voting hard (at least in my area), so I know for sure I got a lot of first-time early voters to go, or at least so they said. It stands to reason that people who may have voted on election day vote early once or twice, and then they start to build a habit of it. This becomes compounded when a campaign's strategy is built around pushing early voting.

I don't buy that it's a thing that has an impact on election results because pretty much all early voters are/were either:
a) going to vote on election day anyway if it weren't for early voting, which means they're not harming the candidate because they would've voted for said candidate
b) unable to vote on election day, but if they could, they would've vote for the candidate. This means they're actually helping the candidate by voting early
c) wouldn't be voting at all if it weren't for early voting, which means the candidate is being helped.

[Virginiá]

I feel like the "cannibalizing the election day vote" thing is a total myth in the first place, honestly.

How come? It totally makes sense why it would happen. In 2016, the Clinton campaign had us pushing people to do early voting hard (at least in my area), so I know for sure I got a lot of first-time early voters to go, or at least so they said. It stands to reason that people who may have voted on election day vote early once or twice, and then they start to build a habit of it. This becomes compounded when a campaign's strategy is built around pushing early voting.

I don't buy that it's a thing that has an impact on election results because pretty much all early voters are/were either:
a) going to vote on election day anyway if it weren't for early voting, which means they're not harming the candidate because they would've voted for said candidate
b) unable to vote on election day, but if they could, they would've vote for the candidate. This means they're actually helping the candidate by voting early
c) wouldn't be voting at all if it weren't for early voting, which means the candidate is being helped.

Ohh, my apologies. I didn't know you were debating its effect on elections. I thought you meant the idea in general. I should have read the post you quoted above.

Yes, I agree. The only reason this phrase is relevant is for us election geeks who are desperately trying to theorize what will happen via early returns. If a flood of people votes early and thus doesn't on election day, it's irrelevant, because they still voted either way. Like you said, it actually helps the candidate anyway. They can better target non-voters in the final stretch if they have an idea of who has already voted early.

[henster]

This ad on behalf of Stacey Abrams is really bad, the fake southern accent is so obvious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcVKS0UWcDU

[Rookie Yinzer]

I feel like the "cannibalizing the election day vote" thing is a total myth in the first place, honestly.

How come? It totally makes sense why it would happen. In 2016, the Clinton campaign had us pushing people to do early voting hard (at least in my area), so I know for sure I got a lot of first-time early voters to go, or at least so they said. It stands to reason that people who may have voted on election day vote early once or twice, and then they start to build a habit of it. This becomes compounded when a campaign's strategy is built around pushing early voting.

I don't buy that it's a thing that has an impact on election results because pretty much all early voters are/were either:
a) going to vote on election day anyway if it weren't for early voting, which means they're not harming the candidate because they would've voted for said candidate
b) unable to vote on election day, but if they could, they would've vote for the candidate. This means they're actually helping the candidate by voting early
c) wouldn't be voting at all if it weren't for early voting, which means the candidate is being helped.

The point of my initial statement is that a lot of the people doing mail-ins will be voters who don't participate in midterms so if we end up hearing of sharp increases in absentees it is more likely they were not going to vote in the first place and it's not regular voters shifting away from early in person or election day...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Joe Biden will campaign with Abrams in Atlanta next Thursday.

[libertpaulian]

Joe Biden will campaign with Abrams in Atlanta next Thursday.

She needs Barack and Michelle, honestly.

[Virginiá]

Joe Biden will campaign with Abrams in Atlanta next Thursday.

She needs Barack and Michelle, honestly.

I wish Obama would just camp out on the border of GA/FL and spend the next 5 weeks doing nothing but campaigning and fundraising for Abrams and Gillum. Them winning would be a pretty big deal. First Democratic governors in literally a generation (although GA only if you consider a generation around 15 years).

[Adam Griffin]

An internal for Abrams released these results(Likely Voters):

Abrams(D)- 48%

Kemp(R)- 42%

Metz(L)- 3%

https://secure.staceyabrams.com/page/-/2018_September/Email/Polling%20Memo%20from%20Garin%20Hart%20Yang.pdf

[Rookie Yinzer]

Did Deal ever release any internals in 2014? Hoping that if we never get any from Kemp that’s a sign he’s in deep sh-t.

[Podgy the Bear]

I have to think the Medicaid expansion issue has to be making a considerable impact in Abrams' favor--especially in the rural areas.  It's really the difference of whether there will be medical coverage or activity in large sections of the state (especially the southern part).   

[OneJ]

Do y’all think there is a good chance that Abrams could outperform Gillum on election night whether either of them win and/or reach 1st place?