Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

I wouldn't read too much into that.  IMO DeSantis is a much more extreme candidate than Kemp.

[KingSweden]

Abrams’s advantage will never be shown in the polls. I’m ignoring them myself.

This strikes me as unsound

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams’s advantage will never be shown in the polls. I’m ignoring them myself.

This strikes me as unsound

The voters she is going after are not the kind that are polled or that respond to polls. Obsessing over every little movement in the polls does me no good.

[libertpaulian]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

I wouldn't read too much into that.  IMO DeSantis is a much more extreme candidate than Kemp.

They're equally extreme.  DeSantis is going with the alt-right image, whilst Kemp is going for the toothless hick in his trailer and pickup truck image.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Did somebody really merge both of bronz's GARBAGE THREADS into this sacred ground?

lol

[Podgy the Bear]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

I wouldn't read too much into that.  IMO DeSantis is a much more extreme candidate than Kemp.

They're equally extreme.  DeSantis is going with the alt-right image, whilst Kemp is going for the toothless hick in his trailer and pickup truck image.

I disagree on this with Kemp.  So far, he has an affable manner in his appearances, and his ads on Abrams's tax issues are fair and direct. 

And I am somewhat concerned with Abrams's non-appearance on TV (and therefore, not responding to the tax issue).  It reminds me of Hillary in August 2016 where she effectively disappeared from the public eye (to fundraise, we were told).  I am hoping that Abrams blazes it up for September and October.

[KingSweden]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

I wouldn't read too much into that.  IMO DeSantis is a much more extreme candidate than Kemp.

They're equally extreme.  DeSantis is going with the alt-right image, whilst Kemp is going for the toothless hick in his trailer and pickup truck image.

I disagree on this with Kemp.  So far, he has an affable manner in his appearances, and his ads on Abrams's tax issues are fair and direct. 

And I am somewhat concerned with Abrams's non-appearance on TV (and therefore, not responding to the tax issue).  It reminds me of Hillary in August 2016 where she effectively disappeared from the public eye (to fundraise, we were told).  I am hoping that Abrams blazes it up for September and October.

In hindsight, HRC taking the foot off the gas during August was probably her campaign’s fatal flaw.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Did somebody really merge both of bronz's GARBAGE THREADS into this sacred ground?

lol

Yeah, that is not ideal. I occasionally look in here to browse the various high quality posts and look for informed updates on GA-GOV, but then I have to sift through all that complete junk. Mods, please don't do that in the future.

[IceSpear]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

I wouldn't read too much into that.  IMO DeSantis is a much more extreme candidate than Kemp.

They're equally extreme.  DeSantis is going with the alt-right image, whilst Kemp is going for the toothless hick in his trailer and pickup truck image.

Uh...is there a difference?

[IceSpear]

Apparently, in Georgia's neighbor to the south, their Democratic nominee is leading in a poll by a margin of 5%.  If that's the case, Abrams has to be leading by 2-3% or so.

I wouldn't read too much into that.  IMO DeSantis is a much more extreme candidate than Kemp.

They're equally extreme.  DeSantis is going with the alt-right image, whilst Kemp is going for the toothless hick in his trailer and pickup truck image.

I disagree on this with Kemp.  So far, he has an affable manner in his appearances, and his ads on Abrams's tax issues are fair and direct. 

And I am somewhat concerned with Abrams's non-appearance on TV (and therefore, not responding to the tax issue).  It reminds me of Hillary in August 2016 where she effectively disappeared from the public eye (to fundraise, we were told).  I am hoping that Abrams blazes it up for September and October.

In hindsight, HRC taking the foot off the gas during August was probably her campaign’s fatal flaw.

Nah, it was allowing the media to define her and never fighting back.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The Democratic Party is doing mass canvassing this Labor Day weekend among ESL (English as Second Language) voters this weekend.

Democrats in the past would have just written them off as useless.

[Adam Griffin]

Alright, so I've finished my first draft of Georgia 2018 Abrams win benchmarks. I've decided for the time being to settle on a nominal win rather than a majority win, simply because I'm not sure where else it's feasible to stretch the numbers to get to 50%. Nevertheless, I did manage to get Abrams to 49.3% when all was said and done; in the end, this is equivalent to closing 223k of the 262k deficit Carter had in 2014. Obviously the easiest way for Abrams to get a majority with these figures as a baseline is if Kemp's raw turnout is lower than Deal's was in 2014.

I'm open to suggestions or recommendations in some parts of the state. Below is a map and the list with each county's benchmarks. I'll probably turn this into an interactive map in the next day or two.

County-by-County Benchmarks (2014 and 2018 Results + Swings)

So here are the interactive maps in case anybody's interested:


Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Margin)

Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Swing)

[libertpaulian]

Alright, so I've finished my first draft of Georgia 2018 Abrams win benchmarks. I've decided for the time being to settle on a nominal win rather than a majority win, simply because I'm not sure where else it's feasible to stretch the numbers to get to 50%. Nevertheless, I did manage to get Abrams to 49.3% when all was said and done; in the end, this is equivalent to closing 223k of the 262k deficit Carter had in 2014. Obviously the easiest way for Abrams to get a majority with these figures as a baseline is if Kemp's raw turnout is lower than Deal's was in 2014.

I'm open to suggestions or recommendations in some parts of the state. Below is a map and the list with each county's benchmarks. I'll probably turn this into an interactive map in the next day or two.

County-by-County Benchmarks (2014 and 2018 Results + Swings)

So here are the interactive maps in case anybody's interested:


Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Margin)

Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Swing)

Why does Brooks County flip but not Lowndes?

[Adam Griffin]

Why does Brooks County flip but not Lowndes?

Blacker by current registration figures, remains Democratic at the local level (unlike Lowndes), is more elastic (voted for Barnes in 2010), had half the margin of loss of Lowndes in 2014 and I believe Abrams is exactly the right person to motivate voters here, given what happened in 2010 (both good and bad).

[libertpaulian]

Is it possible Lowndes could flip, given there is an urban area (Valdosta) in the county?  (Granted, Valdosta isn't some mega city or anything, but enough voters could maybe change things?)

[Adam Griffin]

Is it possible Lowndes could flip, given there is an urban area (Valdosta) in the county?  (Granted, Valdosta isn't some mega city or anything, but enough voters could maybe change things?)

I mean, it's possible, but as you already pointed out, it's not really urban in a true sense; Lowndes is basically Whitfield's southern equivalent/cousin in a lot of ways. Coupled with the fact that both whites and blacks tend to be essentially 90% R/D, making up the difference in a county with a base electorate of 65k RV @ 60% white/35% black is a tall order.

Historically, Lowndes tracked well with the state; its margin tended to be 1-5 points more GOP than the state as whole barring a couple of exceptions, but beginning in 2014 (and definitely in 2016) it's been drifting to the right. In most recent past elections, I would consider it a bellwether-like county in that you could look at its results and get an idea of what would be the state's margin, but not so much in the past few years. Whether that continues to hold or not, I don't know...but I imagine Abrams would need to win by at least 5 before Lowndes is seriously in contention.

[Badger]

Alright, so I've finished my first draft of Georgia 2018 Abrams win benchmarks. I've decided for the time being to settle on a nominal win rather than a majority win, simply because I'm not sure where else it's feasible to stretch the numbers to get to 50%. Nevertheless, I did manage to get Abrams to 49.3% when all was said and done; in the end, this is equivalent to closing 223k of the 262k deficit Carter had in 2014. Obviously the easiest way for Abrams to get a majority with these figures as a baseline is if Kemp's raw turnout is lower than Deal's was in 2014.

I'm open to suggestions or recommendations in some parts of the state. Below is a map and the list with each county's benchmarks. I'll probably turn this into an interactive map in the next day or two.

County-by-County Benchmarks (2014 and 2018 Results + Swings)

So here are the interactive maps in case anybody's interested:


Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Margin)

Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Swing)

Insufficient. Your figures don't get Abrams to 50% plus one, so the race goes to a runoff which she almost inevitably loses.

[libertpaulian]

Alright, so I've finished my first draft of Georgia 2018 Abrams win benchmarks. I've decided for the time being to settle on a nominal win rather than a majority win, simply because I'm not sure where else it's feasible to stretch the numbers to get to 50%. Nevertheless, I did manage to get Abrams to 49.3% when all was said and done; in the end, this is equivalent to closing 223k of the 262k deficit Carter had in 2014. Obviously the easiest way for Abrams to get a majority with these figures as a baseline is if Kemp's raw turnout is lower than Deal's was in 2014.

I'm open to suggestions or recommendations in some parts of the state. Below is a map and the list with each county's benchmarks. I'll probably turn this into an interactive map in the next day or two.

County-by-County Benchmarks (2014 and 2018 Results + Swings)

So here are the interactive maps in case anybody's interested:


Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Margin)

Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Swing)

Insufficient. Your figures don't get Abrams to 50% plus one, so the race goes to a runoff which she almost inevitably loses.

I think Adam is trying to set benchmarks for her.  Obviously, she'd make up the deficit by picking up a few votes in more hostile territory and making sure she runs up the margins with her natural coalitions.

[Adam Griffin]

So here are the interactive maps in case anybody's interested:


Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Margin)

Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Swing)

Insufficient. Your figures don't get Abrams to 50% plus one, so the race goes to a runoff which she almost inevitably loses.

The problem is that I didn't want to stretch counties beyond what I could see as being realistic, which...shows what I believe to be the underlying problem of this race. Nevertheless, one can look at these figures and - with the statewide total being within less than a percent of a majority - compare on Election Night; if she's hitting or exceeding these in most areas, then she has a chance. If not, then no.

The path of least resistance (at least in terms of simplicity and compactness) for a majority win would involve her getting 2 percentage points more of the vote in Fulton, Dekalb, Gwinnett & Cobb (71%/83%/55%/52%) and getting 1 percentage point more in Henry, Cherokee, Forsyth, Douglas, Rockdale & Newton (53%/27%/28%/56%/65%/53%).

Still, this is built on a 2014 baseline in terms of vote distribution, meaning that each county is the same share of the statewide electorate as it was in 2014. Nevertheless and even though that is likely not to be the case, the shift in margins in these counties isn't built on persuasion - meaning that the swings in favor of Abrams in the benchmarks essentially reflect higher Democratic turnout from unlikely & first-time voters indirectly, but distribute it more evenly than it may end up being. Still, I imagine the movements in terms of counties' shares of the statewide electorate will be small in relative terms; Fulton isn't going from 10% of the electorate to 20%, Cherokee's not going from 3% to 2%, etc.

Perhaps the biggest point to take from all of this is that Abrams is going to need to improve by more than half as much over Carter outside of broader Metro ATL (8 points) as she needs to improve within it (14 points).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stacy Abrams will be next Gov of GA and pull off the upset😍

[GeorgiaModerate]

Alright, so I've finished my first draft of Georgia 2018 Abrams win benchmarks. I've decided for the time being to settle on a nominal win rather than a majority win, simply because I'm not sure where else it's feasible to stretch the numbers to get to 50%. Nevertheless, I did manage to get Abrams to 49.3% when all was said and done; in the end, this is equivalent to closing 223k of the 262k deficit Carter had in 2014. Obviously the easiest way for Abrams to get a majority with these figures as a baseline is if Kemp's raw turnout is lower than Deal's was in 2014.

I'm open to suggestions or recommendations in some parts of the state. Below is a map and the list with each county's benchmarks. I'll probably turn this into an interactive map in the next day or two.

County-by-County Benchmarks (2014 and 2018 Results + Swings)

So here are the interactive maps in case anybody's interested:


Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Margin)

Abrams - County Plurality Benchmarks (Swing)

Insufficient. Your figures don't get Abrams to 50% plus one, so the race goes to a runoff which she almost inevitably loses.

He acknowledged that in the initial post:

"I've decided for the time being to settle on a nominal win rather than a majority win, simply because I'm not sure where else it's feasible to stretch the numbers to get to 50%. Nevertheless, I did manage to get Abrams to 49.3% when all was said and done"

[Adam Griffin]

Alright, so I went ahead (even though I think it's a stretch) and added the enhanced metro figures I mentioned above to get to 50%. There - happy?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Just passed by a booth that was supporting Barrah and one of the AG's, still haven't seen a presence from the Abrams campaign

Edit: Kemp campaign also has a strong presence on campus... literally nothing from Abrams

[GeorgiaModerate]

Long AJC article on each candidate's electoral strategy: https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-candidates-for-governor-have-mapped-own-paths-victory/bELVHefhGsRnMxm6VRCUCN/.  Some highlights:

Kemp:

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Abrams:

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[Badger]

Alright, so I went ahead (even though I think it's a stretch) and added the enhanced metro figures I mentioned above to get to 50%. There - happy?

Thrilled, thank you.

My point was simply that getting electoral Coalition strong enough for Abrams to deny Kemp and outright majority Victory on Election night isn't tremendously difficult, but the difference between that and finding a coalition that gets her to a plurality victory is still the same result, a purely academic one, compared to Kemp getting an outright majority win.

The only interest I have is to see how Abrams can realistically pull off the 50% plus one she needs to become governor. Which is why I am still bearish about her chances compared to most of the Forum.