Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

Mail ballot update (compared to yesterday). According to the SoS, 18,158 ballots have been returned (14,970 were returned as of yesterday; 3,188 returned today).

Macon/Bibb finally started to report, and Clayton had its first huge dump today as well. Fulton finally started to catch up to where it should be, vaulting into third place. Paulding is an interesting one here, given its relatively strong GOP support and relatively small population compared to other metro counties.

These counties comprise 66% of returned ballots (unchanged from yesterday); these counties comprised 63% of Georgia's 2010 population and 72%/75% of Obama/Clinton's statewide vote bloc:

Code:

1618	(1385)	DEKALB
1581	(1556) 	COBB
1235	(1088)	GWINNETT
1119	(511)	FULTON
811	(658)	RICHMOND
607	(550)	CHATHAM	
505	(351)	PAULDING
497	(487)	HENRY
496	(489)	CHEROKEE
482	(387)	FORSYTH
455	(186)	CLAYTON
404	(395)	HOUSTON
311	(311)	COWETA
295	(271)	COLUMBIA
239	(213)	CLARKE
216	(179)	LOWNDES
209	(196)	TROUP
208	(154)	ROCKDALE
194	(167)	DOUGLAS
157	(155)	FLOYD
145	(27)	        BIBB
94	(75)	        WHITFIELD
23	(23) 	        HALL
14	(13)	        MUSCOGEE
0	(0)	        DOUGHERTY

In composition of the electorate, the white share continues to decline, and is potentially on track to drop below 45% by tomorrow.

Code:

White	7943	45.6% (-0.6)
Black	7395	42.4% (+0.5)
Latino	357	2.0% (-0.2)
Other	679	3.9% (-0.1)
Unknown	1062	6.1% (+0.4)

Female	10172 58.3% (+0.2)
Male		7179   41.2% (-0.3)
Unknown	85	  0.4% (+0.1)

18-29	  950	5.4% (+0.1)
30-44	1384 7.9% (-0.1)
45-60	2789 16.0% (+0.1)
60+	      12255	70.3% (-0.3)
Unknown	   58	0.3% (0.0)

[Adam Griffin]

So it's continuing to get less white and more female.

If you had to guess what the margin is among these votes, what do you think it is now?

Maybe 1-2 points different from what I estimated prior to Monday (62/38 in the two way, minimum) - but without comprehensive access to a statewide voter database, it's impossible to know for sure. Just because certain counties are comprising certain percentages doesn't mean that their electorates come close to matching the ballots that have been returned.

It's even difficult to wager what the situation is along racial lines. Even among white mail ballots, I'm guessing the composition is much more Dem-friendly than usual (since Democrats are pushing mail voting so strongly). We could be looking at a 3:1 advantage for Democrats right now for all I know.

[Hammy]

Brian Kemp was at UGA last saturday.

Where's Stacey at?

Probably calling her donors from New York and California

Pitiful that people look at their own fellow citizens in outside states like they're foreign agents. Keep it up, people like you are my motivation to vote when otherwise I wouldn't care enough to take the time out of my day.

[Adam Griffin]

*snip*

Here is something very interesting that I can report at the granular level, however. Looking at my county's voter file, I can see who all has voted (along with a plethora of details about them).

Of the 75 people who had voted by mail in Whitfield County (70-26 Trump) as of yesterday, the most recent scoring models suggest that it's a 53/47 electorate. That's a bit of a simplification (the scoring model rates likely 2018 DNC support in terms of percentage likelihood; technically, 53% of the voters have a greater than 50% chance of supporting Democrats), but still unprecedented.

Furthermore, half of the people to vote by mail did not vote in any of the last 3 primaries. Only 1 in 7 of these voters pulled ballots in all of the most 3 recent primaries. Forty percent of them voted in no more than 1 of the past 3 general elections (2012, 2014, 2016).

And the racial stats (also unprecedented, particularly for Latino midterm participation):

Code:

59% White
18% Latino
15% Black
8% Other

Those stats basically look comparable to our county's Democratic presidential electorate rather than the electorate at-large (a little less Latino and a bit more black than in a presidential general, but still).

It's obviously a small sample size, so salt shakers and all, but still very out of the norm for my county. This pretty much proves that the vote by mail campaign is having an effect, though.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Brian Kemp was at UGA last saturday.

Where's Stacey at?

Probably calling her donors from New York and California

Pitiful that people look at their own fellow citizens in outside states like they're foreign agents. Keep it up, people like you are my motivation to vote when otherwise I wouldn't care enough to take the time out of my day.

It’s disgusting how people think they can vilify states like California and New York but then cry foul when they’re called dumb Southerners (unless it’s their God Fuhrer Trump saying it).

*snip*

Here is something very interesting that I can report at the granular level, however. Looking at my county's voter file, I can see who all has voted (along with a plethora of details about them).

Of the 75 people who had voted by mail in Whitfield County (70-26 Trump) as of yesterday, the most recent scoring models suggest that it's a 53/47 electorate. That's a bit of a simplification (the scoring model rates likely 2018 DNC support in terms of percentage likelihood; technically, 53% of the voters have a greater than 50% chance of supporting Democrats), but still unprecedented.

Furthermore, half of the people to vote by mail did not vote in any of the last 3 primaries. Only 1 in 7 of these voters pulled ballots in all of the most 3 recent primaries. Forty percent of them voted in no more than 1 of the past 3 general elections (2012, 2014, 2016).

It's obviously a small sample size, so salt shakers and all, but still very out of the norm for my county.

Intriguing info. It’s still pretty early but I’m loving what I’m seeing so far. 34 more days of hard work!

[Virginiá]

If this works and Abrams wins, I wonder how long it will take (or if) Republicans to restrict VBM. If there is anything I've noticed from surprise wins in states where Republicans have power, it's that they tend to hold a grudge and also try to use their legislative power to "fix" the "problem." North Carolina is an excellent example of that. They made Supreme Court elections partisan and literally cancelled judicial primaries for 2018 just because they lost one race for the court in 2016, and became convinced it was because just enough people thought the Democrat was actually a Republican. Republicans in Arizona moved to make ballot collection harder for Democratic groups that rely on it when VBM became more and more popular. Don't even ask what Walker did in Wisconsin - arguably a smorgasbord of fine-tuning election laws to restrict urban and college turnout.

[Adam Griffin]

Intriguing info. It’s still pretty early but I’m loving what I’m seeing so far. 34 more days of hard work!

I'm gonna quit spamming the thread now, but I just ran the same numbers on the requested but unreturned ballots. If we combine the two groups, we have approximately 500 mail voters in Whitfield County who are:

PARTY:
61% Democratic
39% Republican

RACE:
45% White
30% Latino
15% Black
10% Other

PAST VOTING (2012, 2014 & 2016)
* 42% Voted in 0 or 1 General Elections
* 62% Voted in 0 Primaries

Honestly pretty incredible (especially the Latino percentage; hopefully they return their ballots!). But if the combined returned/received mail voting electorate in Whitfield County is 61% Democratic, then we can surely and safely assume that the mail electorate statewide is much more Democratic than my initial minimum estimates.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1047309260215005184

Everyone check this site out:

http://georgiavotes.com/

Honestly pretty incredible (especially the Latino percentage; hopefully they return their ballots!). But if the combined returned/received mail voting electorate in Whitfield County is 61% Democratic, then we can surely and safely assume that the mail electorate statewide is much higher than my initial minimum estimates.

GOP won't see the massive Latino surge coming. Organizers have been on the ground for months. I'm excited to see the dents she makes in Whitfield, Gwinnett, Hall, Cobb, and across South Georgia off the strength of Latinos. I have never seen a statewide campaign so engaged with the community and anxious to get them out to vote.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Can someone explain to me what these constitutional amendments / ballot referendums mean? I don't understand any of them.

I'm leaning towards voting "no" on all of them because I don't trust them.

[Adam Griffin]

Can someone explain to me what these constitutional amendments / ballot referendums mean? I don't understand any of them

I will, in just a bit.

[Adam Griffin]

Can someone explain to me what these constitutional amendments / ballot referendums mean? I don't understand any of them.

I'm leaning towards voting "no" on all of them because I don't trust them.

Amendment 1: funnels existing tax dollars collected from outdoor sporting goods businesses into conservation efforts, protecting and maintaining parks, etc. This one is a pretty easy yes in my opinion.

Amendment 2: creates a statewide business court system to handle specific business-related cases. The thing is that this function already exists at the county level (at least, the ability for counties to create them; Gwinnett already has, for instance) and the GOP is just wanting to seed the state with a bunch of these (and the Governor is given sole ability to appoint each and every one of them). I voted hell no.

Amendment 3: allows different tax rates across counties for timber-related stuff. This was the one I could never really wrap my brain around, so I voted no (assuming it's just a conservative handout to businesses). You can read the Senate caucus' description of the amendment here.

Amendment 4: basically expands the ability of victims to get information and be heard in court proceedings. I didn't like the taste of this one, so I voted no. Again, more info can be found here.

Amendment 5: my understanding is that this allows counties with multiple school districts (or multiple counties) to hold ESPLOST referendums without needing the permission of all districts within the county; also guarantees that if a ESPLOST is approved, the funds are distributed to the school system(s) that voted for the ESPLOST rather than to all districts. I voted yes (being someone who lives in a county with multiple school districts).


Referendum 1: it's ATL-specific in terms of its current motivation, so it's not going to affect anybody outside of Fulton/Dekalb/ATL. However, I hate homestead exemptions and limitations on property taxes in general, so I voted no.

Referendum 2: provides a tax exemption for certain nonprofit-owned homes for the mentally disabled. Again, I assume this will be a corporate handout ("nonprofit-owned" is a slippery phrase), so I voted no.


Generally, the rule of thumb in GA on these kinds of things is, if you don't understand it or feel doubt about it, vote no - particularly on amendments (most of which can be passed through referendum or statute in the first place; the legislature is notoriously lacking personal responsibility in this regard).

[Adam Griffin]

I lied; I'm back!

That GeorgiaVotes page provides some relevant information along the same lines of what I was mining out of my county earlier today.

Just take a look at this:

• 24% of mail ballots cast thus far by whites come from people who did not vote at all in 2014
• For blacks, that figure is 56%
• For Latinos, 74%
• For everybody else, 69%

Guess we have a tentative (early) verdict as to whether or not early vote is being cannibalized.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I posted some GA returns-by-county data on the early/absentee thread. It is long (listing numbers for every county), so rather than posting the list of all the data here as well, I will just link to it here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=301469.msg6447471#msg6447471

It looks like it partially duplicates some of what Fmr. Pres. Griff has already done, but also is a bit different. My observations were:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Bidenworth2020]

I lied; I'm back!

That GeorgiaVotes page provides some relevant information along the same lines of what I was mining out of my county earlier today.

Just take a look at this:

• 24% of mail ballots cast thus far by whites come from people who did not vote at all in 2014
• For blacks, that figure is 56%
• For Latinos, 74%
• For everybody else, 69%

Guess we have a tentative (early) verdict as to whether or not early vote is being cannibalized.

I assume you live in gwinett? idk any other georgia areas with any hispanic strength

[Adam Griffin]

I lied; I'm back!

That GeorgiaVotes page provides some relevant information along the same lines of what I was mining out of my county earlier today.

Just take a look at this:

• 24% of mail ballots cast thus far by whites come from people who did not vote at all in 2014
• For blacks, that figure is 56%
• For Latinos, 74%
• For everybody else, 69%

Guess we have a tentative (early) verdict as to whether or not early vote is being cannibalized.

I assume you live in gwinett? idk any other georgia areas with any hispanic strength

The figures you quoted of mine are for the state as a whole. I do live in the most Latino county (%), but it's not Gwinnett.

[Adam Griffin]

I posted some GA returns-by-county data on the early/absentee thread. It is long (listing numbers for every county), so rather than posting the list of all the data here as well, I will just link to it here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=301469.msg6447471#msg6447471

It looks like it partially duplicates some of what Fmr. Pres. Griff has already done, but also is a bit different. My observations were:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Without diving into your figures too much (do you have a spreadsheet you can add to Google Drive, by the way?), I can take what basic info I already know and try to apply it here. Basically, I hypothesize we're looking at the same dynamic we see on election night in Georgia elections. Smaller, more rural and more Republican counties tend to get their vote counting started first, and tend to finish first; larger counties take more time to process everything.

I know based on my day-by-day counts for the past week or so that Fulton, Clayton and Dekalb started mailing the ballots out later than many other places (including other metro ATL counties). From the Secretary of State's figures, it'd appear that Bibb, Muscogee and Dougherty (Macon/Columbus/Albany) still have yet to mail out any real number of ballots; until yesterday, all 3 had mailed out just a few dozen ballots combined. There's also the broader precedent that counties with larger non-white populations tend to end up having lower ballot return rates in the end.

[QAnonKelly]

Going to canvass for Abrams Saturday

[Rookie Yinzer]

Going to canvass for Abrams Saturday

YES!! I'm doing door knocking every day of the GOTV period.

ETA: Elizabeth Warren and Ayanna Pressley will be stumping for Stacey Abrams at Clayton State University next Tuesday.

[Adam Griffin]

Today's data should be available in about 45 minutes. I'm not sure how quickly the Georgia Votes website is updating their figures, but if I don't see some statewide stats from them shortly after SoS publishing them, I'll be mining per usual.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PattyArquette/status/1047582879524556801

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ And for what it's worth, I just asked the creator of the Georgia Votes page if he could start organizing this by county. He said it's in the works (along with State House, State Senate and US House districts).

[Adam Griffin]

Mail ballot update (compared to yesterday). According to the SoS, 22,587 ballots have been returned (18,158 were returned as of yesterday; 4,429 returned today).

These counties comprise 67% of returned ballots (up from 66% yesterday); these counties comprised 63% of Georgia's 2010 population and 72%/75% of Obama/Clinton's statewide vote bloc:

Code:

2301	(1581) 	COBB
2233	(1618)	DEKALB
1816	(1235)	GWINNETT
1536	(1119)	FULTON
937	(811)	RICHMOND
617	(607)	CHATHAM	
577	(496)	CHEROKEE
551	(505)	PAULDING
526	(482)	FORSYTH
525	(404)	HOUSTON
502	(497)	HENRY
488	(455)	CLAYTON
380	(311)	COWETA
347	(295)	COLUMBIA
326	(239)	CLARKE
302	(194)	DOUGLAS
251	(208)	ROCKDALE
247	(209)	TROUP
222	(216)	LOWNDES
185	(157)	FLOYD
145	(145)	BIBB
106	(94)	        WHITFIELD
25	(23)	        HALL
16	(14)	        MUSCOGEE
0	(0)	        DOUGHERTY

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Vote, both white and black share of electorate declined slightly compared to yesterday.

(I'm switching from McDonald's numbers to his, which explains why the format looks different from previous days' updates)

Code:

White	9825	45.1% (-0.1)
Black	9078	41.6% (-0.5)
Latino	478	2.2%  (+0.2)
Asian	624	2.9%  (+0.3)
Other	1794	8.2%  (+0.1)

Female	12663	58.1% (+0.2)
Male		8827 	40.5% (-0.3)
Unknown	309	        1.4%   (+0.1)

18-29	 1191	5.5%   (+0.3)
30-39	 1080	5.0%   (+0.1)
40-49	1553	        7.1%   (+0.2)
50-64	4782	        21.9% (+0.7)
65+        12916         59.3% (-1.3)
Unknown	  277	        1.3%   (+0.1)

[Adam Griffin]

Here's another way to look at the current VBM stats: as a share of all 2014 VBM ballots cast. I'm seeing some patterns here; do you?

% of VBM Returned (Share of 2014), As of October 3, 2018

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Vote, racial shares of the electorate remain largely unchanged from yesterday. An additional 3,128 valid votes were received compared to yesterday; today's accepted ballot total (returned minus rejected) stands at 25,348 votes.

Code:

White	11456	45.2% (+0.1)
Black	10542	41.6% (0.0)
Latino	551	         2.2%  (0.0)
Asian	702	         2.8%  (-0.1)
Other	2097	         8.3%  (+0.1)

Female	14788	58.3% (+0.2)
Male		10191 	40.2% (-0.3)
Unknown	369	        1.5%   (+0.1)

18-29	 1430	5.6%   (+0.1)
30-39	 1245	4.9%   (-0.1)
40-49	 1804	7.1%   (0.0)
50-64	 5561	21.9%  (0.0)
65+         14976        59.1%  (-0.2)
Unknown	  332	        1.3%   (0.0)