2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Arkansas Yankee]

The RCP link to 6/14-6/17 CNN poll showing a D+8 has at its end an updated projection of seats dated 6/26 that shows the following projections:

D solid 179
D likely 11
D lean 12
Toss up 21
R lean 24
R likely 28
R solid 160

Seems a little weak for Ds, if they are +8.  Maybe the strength is some of R leans will fold.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/20/politics/generic-ballot-june-poll/index.html

[Arkansas Yankee]

This is not a good poll for Nelson.  An incumbent D in a supposed D wave year should be doing better.

58% of Nelson voters say they might vote differently.  Only 42% of Scott’s voter say that.

I think the debates will be important.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Ipsos/Reuters, August 5-9, 1379 registered voters

D: 45 (+1)
R: 36 (nc)

What goes with Ipsos/Reuters.

  We have results above. These results are based on a 5 day rolling average.

Then we have the following results at the RCP site with the following link:

         https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-08-08
           Dates 8/3/18 to 8/7/18

           D 41
           R 39

I guess the difference can result because one is a rolling average and the other is g3 day poll.  But why does Ipsos/Reuters put out two such different polls without comparing them?

[Arkansas Yankee]

CBS is doing some type of tracking poll. It sees about a 20 seat Democrat gain. It does not rule out the GOP keeping the  House.

https://nypost.com/2018/08/18/cbs-news-pollster-reveals-why-blue-wave-is-unlikely/

I am just throwing this out.  I still see D +25-30.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Missed this Zogby poll from 8/13/18

D 40
R 37

Maybe Zogby can return to it ranking in the 90s when they were the first to spot the surge of of the GOP.    Well for it is worth here it is.

https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/864-the-zogby-poll-republicans-are-gaining-ground-on-democrats-in-the-congressional-generic-voters-trust-president-trump-with-the-economy-and-keeping-america-safe-much-more-than-democratic-leaders-republicans-and-trump-are-winning-back-independents

[Arkansas Yankee]

Frustrating!  Only one new poll today and that is a generic.

Have none of the pollsters considered polling the two tribal Americas to see if that adds any clarity to polling.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Since not all RVs will vote, it is now time for all pollsters to rotate to LV POLLS.  I know they were traumatized in 2016.  But now is the time.  If they want to do different scenarios, that will be fine.  But now is the time to get off the pot.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Talk Business Poll conducted by Hendrix College (538 B- pollster) show the following results in the Arkansas Congressional races

First District  422 respondents  Margin of Error +/- 4.7%. This used to be the most Democrat District. Flipped in 2010
      Rick Crawford (R inc) 57%
      Chintin Desia   (D).     22%
      Elvis Presley (L).            3%        Yes this guy changed his name.
      Undecided.                  18%

Second District  428 respondents  Margin of Error +/- 4.7%. Became a swing district in the 1980s.
      French Hill (R inc)      49.5%
      Clarke Tucker (D).      40.5%
      Joe Swafford. (L)           2%
      Undecided                     8%

Third District  428 respondents Margin of Error +/- 4.7% Flipped to GOP in 1966
       Steve Womack (R inc) 53%
       Josh Mahony (D)          31%
       Michael Kalagias (L)       5%
       Undecided.                    11%

Fourth District 423 respondents Margin of Error +/- 4.7%. Last District to Flip in 2014
        Bruce Westerman (R inc) 54%
        Hayden Shamel (D).          24%
        Tom Canada (L)                   5%
        Undecided                          17%

Don’t see NO ATLAS RED WAVE IN ARKANSAS!  Send your $ else where!

LINK: https://talkbusiness.net/2018/09/incumbent-republicans-in-drivers-seat-in-all-4-congressional-races/

       
     

[Arkansas Yankee]

AR-2: Talk Business has Hill up 50/41.

Looks right. Damn shame though, Beebe would beat French Hill here.

You are dreaming!  

[Arkansas Yankee]

AR-2: Talk Business has Hill up 50/41.

Looks right. Damn shame though, Beebe would beat French Hill here.

You are dreaming!  

Half true. That Beebe would run, might as well a dream, that’s correct, the other part I think is right though.

We will have to agree to disagree. 

[Arkansas Yankee]

That AR-02 poll sure is...interesting. It has Democrats winning Faulkner County (Trump +31) but losing Pulaski County (Clinton +18). I am a tiny bit skeptical of this.

If you view the Brummett tape on this link, that issue is discussed:

https://talkbusiness.net