2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Young Conservative]

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She doesn't meet the age requirement for office.

She’s been in the navy for 20 years... how would a 20-year old be a veteran anyway?

Horrible luck?

In any case, I felt pretty solid on Taylor being able to win reelection...until now. The best bet to take out a guy whose military experience is the cornerstone of his campaign is by running another vet against him.

I doubt Taylor loses. People here seem to like his faux moderate persona. This is a great candidate field by the DCCC though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm sure the TAX REFORM BUMP will help the GOP keep Ileana's seat!

[LimoLiberal]

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She doesn't meet the age requirement for office.

She’s been in the navy for 20 years... how would a 20-year old be a veteran anyway?

Horrible luck?

In any case, I felt pretty solid on Taylor being able to win reelection...until now. The best bet to take out a guy whose military experience is the cornerstone of his campaign is by running another vet against him.

I doubt Taylor loses. People here seem to like his faux moderate persona. This is a great candidate field by the DCCC though.

I honestly think Brat is more likely to go down than him. Brat is odious and far-right in a district Republicans are absolutely tanking in. But if Stewart wins the senate nom, the wave sometimes doesn't give a  about how nice the candidates are. Plenty of examples of this in 2010 and even in the HOD races. David Yancey, by all means, was a great delegate and good fit for his district. Didn't really matter, even though he far outran Gillespie.

[Holmes]

Looks like Clarke Tucker will be running for AR-02 because of favorable numbers he's seeing.

http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2017/dec/31/ready-for-a-run-20171231/

[Hindsight was 2020]

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She doesn't meet the age requirement for office.

She’s been in the navy for 20 years... how would a 20-year old be a veteran anyway?

Horrible luck?

In any case, I felt pretty solid on Taylor being able to win reelection...until now. The best bet to take out a guy whose military experience is the cornerstone of his campaign is by running another vet against him.

I doubt Taylor loses. People here seem to like his faux moderate persona. This is a great candidate field by the DCCC though.

I honestly think Brat is more likely to go down than him. Brat is odious and far-right in a district Republicans are absolutely tanking in. But if Stewart wins the senate nom, the wave sometimes doesn't give a  about how nice the candidates are. Plenty of examples of this in 2010 and even in the HOD races. David Yancey, by all means, was a great delegate and good fit for his district. Didn't really matter, even though he far outran Gillespie.

More than Brat a person to watchout is Tom Garrett. He is seriously falling behind on fundraising last I heard

[Ye We Can]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

She doesn't meet the age requirement for office.

She’s been in the navy for 20 years... how would a 20-year old be a veteran anyway?

Horrible luck?

In any case, I felt pretty solid on Taylor being able to win reelection...until now. The best bet to take out a guy whose military experience is the cornerstone of his campaign is by running another vet against him.

I doubt Taylor loses. People here seem to like his faux moderate persona. This is a great candidate field by the DCCC though.

I honestly think Brat is more likely to go down than him. Brat is odious and far-right in a district Republicans are absolutely tanking in. But if Stewart wins the senate nom, the wave sometimes doesn't give a  about how nice the candidates are. Plenty of examples of this in 2010 and even in the HOD races. David Yancey, by all means, was a great delegate and good fit for his district. Didn't really matter, even though he far outran Gillespie.

More than Brat a person to watchout is Tom Garrett. He is seriously falling behind on fundraising last I heard

Yeah. I think Brat is in more danger than Taylor certainly.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like Clarke Tucker will be running for AR-02 because of favorable numbers he's seeing.

http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2017/dec/31/ready-for-a-run-20171231/

Excellent, that alone should move this seat to Lean R with a very real chance of flipping.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bob Young not running in MI-SEN:

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[The Other Castro]

Roy Moore's campaign chief Rich Hobson is challenging Martha Roby in AL-02.

https://twitter.com/alanblinder/status/948563955148083201

[junior chįmp]

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[junior chįmp]

Democrat Congressional Candidate in Arkansas raises 135K from individuals

[Kamala]

Democrat Congressional Candidate in Arkansas raises 135K from individuals

French Hill is more vulnerable than he looks. He kept it with ten points in 2014 of all years.

[Blackacre]

the generic ballot is tighening, according to 538. I expected some reversion to the mean, but how far will it go? Last year reversion-to-the-mean type tightenings ended with around D+8. Will D+12 (where it is now) or D+10 be the new normal?

[Landslide Lyndon]

the generic ballot is tighening, according to 538. I expected some reversion to the mean, but how far will it go? Last year reversion-to-the-mean type tightenings ended with around D+8. Will D+12 (where it is now) or D+10 be the new normal?

It's tightening for the same reason Trump's numbers improved: holidays.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's literally one poll and YouGov's numbers are always all over the place.

[Blackacre]

the generic ballot is tighening, according to 538. I expected some reversion to the mean, but how far will it go? Last year reversion-to-the-mean type tightenings ended with around D+8. Will D+12 (where it is now) or D+10 be the new normal?

It's tightening for the same reason Trump's numbers improved: holidays.

How long does a "holiday bump" typically last?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

the generic ballot is tighening, according to 538. I expected some reversion to the mean, but how far will it go? Last year reversion-to-the-mean type tightenings ended with around D+8. Will D+12 (where it is now) or D+10 be the new normal?

It's tightening for the same reason Trump's numbers improved: holidays.

How long does a "holiday bump" typically last?

He'll probably start plummeting again mid-January.

[GeorgiaModerate]

the generic ballot is tighening, according to 538. I expected some reversion to the mean, but how far will it go? Last year reversion-to-the-mean type tightenings ended with around D+8. Will D+12 (where it is now) or D+10 be the new normal?

It's tightening for the same reason Trump's numbers improved: holidays.

How long does a "holiday bump" typically last?

Under normal circumstances I'd say maybe mid-January, but as fast as the news cycle moves with Trump, it will probably be shorter.

[King Lear]

I wish Rasmussen would start conducting generic ballot polling so we can see what’s going on when Likely voter screens are used.

[LimoLiberal]

Yougov has D+6, down from D+8. That's not good enough to win the house.

[Cactus Jack]

Yougov has D+6, down from D+8. That's not good enough to win the house.

YouGov is also complete garbage. Bear that in mind here.

[junior chįmp]

Everyone stop looking at these stupid ass polls, as I always say:

ReAlIgNmēNt ImMiNeNt~

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[Young Conservative]

Everyone stop looking at these stupid ass polls, as I always say:

ReAlIgNmēNt ImMiNeNt~

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Running means nothing. Winning means everything.

[YE]

Yougov has D+6, down from D+8. That's not good enough to win the house.

May be just noise, but it's something to keep an eye on.

[Young Conservative]

I question the Democrats' ability to keep enthusiasm high for another 11 months. I doubt it can remain at the levels immediately post Trump, especially if Mueller clears Trump and Congress passes infrastructure spending.