2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Sestak]

........

Lol if this is all your "bump" is then the Democrats are completely fine in the midterms.

[junior chįmp]

Good news....looks like Cuomo is getting no credible GOP challenge which will heavily depress turnout for Congressional districts in upstate:

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As I said before...upstate is gonna flip all blue this year!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Cuomo didn't have a credible candidate in 2014 either and he managed to take only 51% of the vote.

[junior chįmp]

Cuomo didn't have a credible candidate in 2014 either and he managed to take only 51% of the vote.

That was because he signed the SAFE act which pissed off upstate and it was a GOP wave year

[Mike Thick]

Cuomo didn't have a credible candidate in 2014 either and he managed to take only 51% of the vote.

Actually, he won 54-40. Not a terrific margin for a NY Democrat, but not exactly scraping by either.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Cuomo didn't have a credible candidate in 2014 either and he managed to take only 51% of the vote.

That was because he signed the SAFE act which pissed off upstate and it was a GOP wave year

I think that it had more to do with non-existent Democratic enthusiasm (something evident from his underwhelming primary win) than anything else.

[junior chįmp]

Women are stepping up to run for Congress like never before

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Women are stepping up to run for Congress like never before

Trump winning the election was a blessing in disquise in many ways.

[junior chįmp]

For the first time in 25 years, Democrats are running in all of Texas 36 congressional districts.

[Virginiá]

Here is a comprehensive list of retirements along with presidential results for the district:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12RhR9oZZpyKKceyLO3C5am84abKzu2XqLWjP2LnQDgI/edit#gid=0

It'll be updated by DKE as the seats open up. I'll also put the link in the first post of this thread.

For the first time in 25 years, Democrats are running in all of Texas 36 congressional districts.

Yea I saw this a bit ago. The numbers are pretty impressive, and reflects the environment pretty well. Although I disagree with this Jones guy on this:

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I don't really think his approvals need to decline much further to wipe out 2-3 seats in Texas. He is already hovering around 36 - 38% nationally and somewhere around -8 to -10 in Texas, and while there is a reasonable chance they could go lower, I doubt it is necessary for a couple TX Republicans to lose. In that environment, Hurd is gone. Culberson is a toss-up, especially considering his inability to get his act together / ramp up a campaign he never thought he'd have to run, and at least 1 or 2 others are probably only Leans R right now.

[ajc0918]

A solid recruit for a seat that usually only has a no-name candidate. I wouldn't expect it to be competitive given the swing this seat saw toward Trump but it's nice to see Bilirakis get a quality challenger.

Federal prosecutor steps up to challenge Gus Bilirakis (FL-12)

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http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/01/02/federal-prosecutor-steps-up-to-challenge-gus-bilirakis/

[Jeppe]

What are the chances that every Republican-held seat has a Democratic challenger?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Women are stepping up to run for Congress like never before

Women running and Millennials voting. It's getting increasingly difficult to see how the GOP holds on to the house in November.

[junior chįmp]

Not necessarily just Congressional but good nonetheless....also shows how finished the GOP is in Texas

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[GoldenMainer]

When do fourth quarter fundraising numbers usually start trickling in?

[junior chįmp]

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[Gass3268]

DDHQ/The Crosstab: Democrats chances of taking the House up to 64.6%

Predicting The Following Democratic Pick Ups:

AZ-02
CA-10
CA-21
CA-25
CA-39
CA-45
CA-49
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
IA-01
IA-03
IL-06
KS-03
MI-11
MN-02
MN-03
NE-02
NJ-02
NJ-07
NM-02
NY-19
NY-24
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
PA-15
TX-23
VA-10
WA-08

Currently they are predicting zero Republican pick ups.

[The Other Castro]

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This race was always going to be abandoned at some point, though it's notable how early it's happening.

[Holmes]

Interesting list from Decision Desk, they have some districts on there that I consider heavier lifts than some districts absent from their list.

[Kamala]

Are Dennis Ross and Vern Buchanan vulnerable? I assume they’re on the third tier of competitive Florida races for Democrats (First being Curbelo and the open seat, then Mast and Diaz-Balart), and DDHQ gives Dems a hair above 30% of winning them.

How are the Democratic candidates looking?

[junior chįmp]

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[ajc0918]

Are Dennis Ross and Vern Buchanan vulnerable? I assume they’re on the third tier of competitive Florida races for Democrats (First being Curbelo and the open seat, then Mast and Diaz-Balart), and DDHQ gives Dems a hair above 30% of winning them.

How are the Democratic candidates looking?

Not really although both races have stronger opponents than normal. David Shapiro, challenging Buchanan, has good name recognition but I haven't seen any fundraising numbers for him. Andrew Learned, challenging Ross, is the frontrunner Dem(I think?) in that race although I don't know much about him.

[Tartarus Sauce]

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She doesn't meet the age requirement for office.

[Kamala]

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She doesn't meet the age requirement for office.

She’s been in the navy for 20 years... how would a 20-year old be a veteran anyway?

[Cactus Jack]

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She doesn't meet the age requirement for office.

She’s been in the navy for 20 years... how would a 20-year old be a veteran anyway?

Horrible luck?

In any case, I felt pretty solid on Taylor being able to win reelection...until now. The best bet to take out a guy whose military experience is the cornerstone of his campaign is by running another vet against him.