Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Red Velvet]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

Yeah, the country as a whole outside Florida I expect to be around 70-30 but Miami probably has a ton of vote and that will be closer to 91-9

[Mike88]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

[Sestak]

Update: 92.77 in, 50.094-49.906

Castillo gains 0.016 from 0.34.

1% from Cusco (roughly proportional), 1% from Liura (overrepresented), nothing from Loreto.

[kaoras]

A friend of mine has the following model:

🇵🇪 ACTUALIZACIÓN PERU 🇵🇪

-> El voto que queda se estima que podría netear 189k votos a Castillo
-> Castillo está 17k abajo en Perú a secas
-> El extranjero debería netear 109k a Fujimori

PREDICCIÓN: Castillo+63k (+8k) (from last update)

[Red Velvet]

The political symbolism if Miami, Florida crowns Keiko Fujimori the new president of Peru lmao. Even if I’m rooting for Castillo against Fujimori, the left reaction to this would be a spectacle of its own.

[Sestak]

^ (@kaoras) Seems pretty reasonable to me.

As long as the Expat net is only around 100K I think Castillo should be good. The issue is if it's higher - the "330K-350K votes are out" number is a good bit scarier for him if that turns out to be true.

[Logical]

Still nothing from La Convencion province in Cusco. Heavily indigenous and with a population of 147k you’d expect at least 100k votes going 90-10 for PC.

[EastwoodS]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

No, I totally agree, my swing o meter has been on Castillo since like 2am, I just feel so bad for all the fujimori stans who went to bed and still have no idea what’s about to happen. A lot of them even think there’s 800k expat votes? Lol no.

[Mike88]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

No, I totally agree, my swing o meter has been on Castillo since like 2am, I just feel so bad for all the fujimori stans who went to bed and still have no idea what’s about to happen. A lot of them even think there’s 800k expat votes? Lol no.

Don't feel bad for the Fujimori supporters. Both Castillo and Fujimori are awful, awful candidates and if there's anyone we should be sorry for, is the whole population of Peru. I don't think they deserve this and what is probably in store for them.

[Walmart_shopper]

The political symbolism if Miami, Florida crowns Keiko Fujimori the new president of Peru lmao. Even if I’m rooting for Castillo against Fujimori, the left reaction to this would be a spectacle of its own.

As a former Miami resident I can attest to the fact that the place is simply the worst place on earth. It is very close to what hell would be like if hell were on earth. It would be too perfect for the tankie lady to win with Miami's votes.

[Walmart_shopper]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

No, I totally agree, my swing o meter has been on Castillo since like 2am, I just feel so bad for all the fujimori stans who went to bed and still have no idea what’s about to happen. A lot of them even think there’s 800k expat votes? Lol no.

Don't feel bad for the Fujimori supporters. Both Castillo and Fujimori are awful, awful candidates and if there's anyone we should be sorry for, is the whole population of Peru. I don't think they deserve this and what is probably in store for them.

They chose the neo-liberal American shill and that didn't work out for them, either.  The extreme margins of the spectrum are kind of all that's left for them at this point. It's an incredibly strange country politically.

[seb_pard]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

No, I totally agree, my swing o meter has been on Castillo since like 2am, I just feel so bad for all the fujimori stans who went to bed and still have no idea what’s about to happen. A lot of them even think there’s 800k expat votes? Lol no.

Don't feel bad for the Fujimori supporters. Both Castillo and Fujimori are awful, awful candidates and if there's anyone we should be sorry for, is the whole population of Peru. I don't think they deserve this and what is probably in store for them.

They chose the neo-liberal American shill and that didn't work out for them, either.  The extreme margins of the spectrum are kind of all that's left for them at this point. It's an incredibly strange country politically.

More than a weird country, is a place that is still suffering from the political consequences of the terrible events of the 80s and 90s. At least if Keiko loses they could bury Fujimorism for good, is a cancer.

[Red Velvet]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

No, I totally agree, my swing o meter has been on Castillo since like 2am, I just feel so bad for all the fujimori stans who went to bed and still have no idea what’s about to happen. A lot of them even think there’s 800k expat votes? Lol no.

Don't feel bad for the Fujimori supporters. Both Castillo and Fujimori are awful, awful candidates and if there's anyone we should be sorry for, is the whole population of Peru. I don't think they deserve this and what is probably in store for them.

They chose the neo-liberal American shill and that didn't work out for them, either.  The extreme margins of the spectrum are kind of all that's left for them at this point. It's an incredibly strange country politically.

More than a weird country, is a place that is still suffering from the political consequences of the terrible events of the 80s and 90s. At least if Keiko loses they could bury Fujimorism for good, is a cancer.

Can they really? Keiko never accepted her 2016 narrow defeat and tried to sabotage the government. If she loses this, in what looks to be an even closer vote, I don’t think she will just be okay with it.

Unless she really goes to jail but you can never be 100% sure about these things.

[Mike88]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

No, I totally agree, my swing o meter has been on Castillo since like 2am, I just feel so bad for all the fujimori stans who went to bed and still have no idea what’s about to happen. A lot of them even think there’s 800k expat votes? Lol no.

Don't feel bad for the Fujimori supporters. Both Castillo and Fujimori are awful, awful candidates and if there's anyone we should be sorry for, is the whole population of Peru. I don't think they deserve this and what is probably in store for them.

They chose the neo-liberal American shill and that didn't work out for them, either.  The extreme margins of the spectrum are kind of all that's left for them at this point. It's an incredibly strange country politically.

More than a weird country, is a place that is still suffering from the political consequences of the terrible events of the 80s and 90s. At least if Keiko loses they could bury Fujimorism for good, is a cancer.

I don't think that if she loses, again, by around 0.4% that Fujimorism will be dead and buried. She will probably give another try in 2026, especially if Castillo crashes in the meantime.

[Red Velvet]

All count is now Fujimori 50,08% vs Castillo 49,92% (93,11% counted)

Peru only: Fujimori 50,03% vs Castillo 49,97% (96,28% counted)

[Sestak]

Update: 93.11 in, 50.078-49.922

Castillo gains 0.016 from 0.34.

Nothing from Cusco. Nothing from Piura, 5% from Loreto.


HOWEVER, we also have 5% from the EXPAT votes now in (so not really fair to judge on the same scale).

Seems to be a substantial chunk of the Argentina votes.

[kaoras]

It was a 2% from the Expat vote in the last update. The other 3% was in a previous one.
Edit: Also, a reaaaally small % from Cusco was counted, 3% in La Convención. Castillo leads 87-12

[Sestak]

It was a 2% from the Expat vote in the last update. The other 3% was in a previous one.

Ah, whoops. Guess I missed that.

[Geoffrey Howe]

There are probably going to be just shy of 300,000 expat votes.
If 50.4% Castillo in Peru, that's a 140,000 vote lead.
That means Fujimori would need 75% of the expat vote.
If 50.2% Castillo in Peru, Fujimori needs 62% of the expat vote.
Most likely she gets 65-70% of the expat vote. So really down to the wire.

(Assuming 40% turnout.)

[seb_pard]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

No, I totally agree, my swing o meter has been on Castillo since like 2am, I just feel so bad for all the fujimori stans who went to bed and still have no idea what’s about to happen. A lot of them even think there’s 800k expat votes? Lol no.

Don't feel bad for the Fujimori supporters. Both Castillo and Fujimori are awful, awful candidates and if there's anyone we should be sorry for, is the whole population of Peru. I don't think they deserve this and what is probably in store for them.

They chose the neo-liberal American shill and that didn't work out for them, either.  The extreme margins of the spectrum are kind of all that's left for them at this point. It's an incredibly strange country politically.

More than a weird country, is a place that is still suffering from the political consequences of the terrible events of the 80s and 90s. At least if Keiko loses they could bury Fujimorism for good, is a cancer.

Can they really? Keiko never accepted her 2016 narrow defeat and tried to sabotage the government. If she loses this, in what looks to be an even closer vote, I don’t think she will just be okay with it.

Unless she really goes to jail but you can never be 100% sure about these things.

Yeah bury definitely would be imposible, but I think if she loses this election the movement will start agonizing, I think this was the last chance for her to get elected. In 2016 the whole left got behind PPK and supported him to avoid a Fujimori government but now you can see a great portion of the right (particularly the economic 'liberals') supporting Fujimori without problems. So, if she can't get elected in this environment, there is no chance for her.

They still have congressional power but I think they will weaken in the following years and Peru will have the chance to return to standard politics. Although I think the current political system is unsustainable.

[Red Velvet]

It’s literally 50/50 in Peru only right now. Castillo will surpass Keiko Fujimori in the next update.

All votes (93,31% counted): Fujimori 50,05% vs Castillo 49,95%

[Sestak]

Update: 93.31 in, 50.050-49.950

Castillo gains 0.028 from 0.2.

No Cusco, No Loreto. 1% from the expats.


Castillo has this, I think.

[Mike88]

In Peru alone, Fujimori now leads by just 1,283 votes. The "surpasso" is imminent.  

[seb_pard]

Argentina 46.5% in. 22k votes (20.5k valid)

Fujimori: 57.3%
Castillo: 42.7%

[Red Velvet]

Argentina 46.5% in. 22k votes (20.5k valid)

Fujimori: 57.3%
Castillo: 42.7%

Argentina and Uruguay best American countries, the lowest % of the Fujimori vote is there.

Uruguay - 55% Fujimori
Argentina - 57%
Brazil - 59%
Bolivia - 65%
Ecuador - 66%
Colombia - 72%
Mexico - 73%
Paraguay - 74%
Canada - 76%

Considering the only country in the world that Castillo won was NORWAY, I think, that’s pretty good result for the Southern Cone. Hopefully Chile follows suit.