Spanish elections and politics

[Michael19754]

GAD3 for La Vanguardia:
PSOE: 26.6%(106-109)
PP: 22.3%(89-93)
C's: 21.9%(73-75)
UP: 16.6%(48-50)
VOX: 3.4%(0-2)
ERC: 2.9%(8-12)
PdeCAT: 1.4%(3-6)
Turnout: 72%
Three quarters believe Sánchez should call a general election if the budget isn't passed and 52% disapprove of the job the government is doing.

[Former President tack50]

There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español



The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.

[PSOL]

There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español



The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.

What caused PSOE and Podemos’s decline in Andalusia since 2015?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español



The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.

What caused PSOE and Podemos’s decline in Andalusia since 2015?

The explosive growth of C's, I'd presume.

[Former President tack50]

There hasn't been much polling for the Andalusian election even though it's little more than 2 weeks away. Here's the latest poll:

Sociométrica-El Español



The most surprising fact is that Vox gets a chance of getting a seat, even though Andalucia isn't exactly the best place for them! If they are really at 4% and get seats in Andalucia, that means they are actually higher than that nationally. Then again Sociométrica is arguably the most Vox-friendly (and Cs friendly) pollster

Also, good poll for the right, they get 52 seats, only short by 3 of a majority.

What caused PSOE and Podemos’s decline in Andalusia since 2015?

Well, I imagine this is a right leaning poll, but if confirmed, for PSOE it would basically be the corruption scandals (particularly the ERE case), fatigue (if PSOE wins, they will have officially been in charge longer than Franco!) and the fact that Susana Díaz isn't really all that popular (I imagine she lost a lot of points when she ran against Sánchez and lost)

For Podemos, I guess it's just extrapolating from their national trend, maybe combined with the fact that Podemos-IU coalitions rarely get all the votes they get when running separately

[Velasco]

So we have Celeste Tel and NC Report predicting a poor result for CS, that would stay in the 4th place. And we have this one saying that Cs will get a very strong result and will come second, besides surprisingly good result for Vox in a region where nobody would give the far-right a chance. Which one should I trust?

I assume that Cs will grow, but I think that surpassing the PP to come second won't be easy. Neither CS nor PP have good candidates, but their national leaders will campaign hard. Inés Arrimadas and Albert Rivera have Andalusian background and that's an advantage for Cs. PP gains un territorial implementation and this is an advantage in the campaign. PSOE will resist, but is losing ground every election. Too many years in power. It seems that the coalition between Podemos and IU will retain or increase the 20 seats they got separately ln 2015, despite they would lose some votes. IU didn't win seats  in certain provinces and the votes were wasted. Running in coalition compensates the loses.

Oranges have promised that they won't support Susana Díaz again. This leaves collaboration between PSOE and Ahora Andalucía as the only viable option, because PP and Cs won't have the numbers. The problem is that Susana Díaz and Teresa Rodríguez don't like each other. Susana Díaz is in the right wing of her party; she would be more comfortable dealing with Cs. Teresa Rodríguez is in the left wing of Podemos, in the trotskyst faction known as Anticapitalistas.

[Former President tack50]

Well, today the election campaign for the Andalusian elections started. Here are campaign posters and slogans from the 4 main parties:

PSOE: More Andalucia



PP: Warranty for change



AA: Andalucia Forward



Cs: Now yes, Ciudadanos



Here are the last few polls as well:

SW Demoscopia-Publicaciones del Sur for Andalusian regional elections



The most surprising thing about this one is that it actually gives not just Vox seats, but also AxSí!

CIS for Andalusian regional elections



This one interestingly gives Vox 1 seat, for Almería (with a whopping 7% there!) instead of the usual 0-2 bracket (which implies seats for Sevilla and Málaga).

Overall, while the overall scenario hasn't changed, most polls are now showing a 3 way tie for second. The nightmare scenario for PP I imagine would be to come 4th and with Vox entering parliament. If that happens, there's a real chance of PP going the way of UCD in the early 80s (ironically, PP definitively "killed" UCD at the 1982 Andalusian election, when they got 2nd and UCD 3rd)

We also got several general election polls, generally showing PSOE down a bit, Cs up a bit, PP down a lot and Podemos stagnant

Celeste Tel-Eldiario.es for general elections



NC Report-La Razón for general elections



Invymark-La Sexta for general elections



Simple Lógica for general elections

[Former President tack50]

Also, yet another scandal on Sánchez's cabinet. This time affecting economy minister Nadia Calviño, who had a similar scandal to the one Pedro Duque (minister of science and universities) had, where she bought a house through a fake business to pay less taxes.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181116/452969685434/nadia-calvino-casa-sociedad-desvinculada.html

I'm now wondering how many scandals is this cabinet going to get. Like looking at the initial cabinet composition, there are now 6 ministers who had scandals, 3 for avoiding taxes (Máxim Huerta, Pedro Duque, now Nadia Calviño), 1 for faking her master's degree (Carmen Montón), 1 involved in Villarejo's recordings (Dolores Delgado) and 1 who had a somewhat controversial involvement in the bankrupcy of Abengoa (Josep Borrell, though that scandal was previous to his involvement in the Sánchez cabinet)

[Velasco]

El País released a poll for the Andalusian elections conducted by 40dB (Belén Barreiro) instead of the usual Metroscopia (at last)

PSOE comes first with loses, as everybody predicts. Tight contest for the seond place between PP, AA and Cs. Vox at the gates of the Andalusian Parliament. Holding on the second place could save Pablo Casado's face despite the heavy loses. Losing the second place to Cs or AA would be catastrophic for the PP. There is concern in the PP and Cs ranks caused by the rise of Vox. Pablo Casado is campaigning frantically throughout Andalusia conveying messages such as "immigrants must adapt to western customs or leave". I think such statements are not useful to stop the Vox rise, as they only amplify the anti-immigrant message of the far-right party. Anyway Casado has said that he has coincidences with Satiago Abascal and even has praised the man (don't forget that Vox is basically a radical PP split). Cs has chosen to ignore Vox and I'm not sure that's the best way to deal with it, but possibly it's etter than the other way. Both Casado and Rivera are visibly uncomfortable when asked about Vox and refuse to say that it's a far-right party.

The Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo predicts an even better result for Vox

There is a certain climate of weariness and debasementof political debate that favours anti-political speech. This week there was a lamentable squabble in Congress between ERC deputy Gabriel Rufián (a cartoonish ruffianesque provocateur, tweeter politician) and the Foreign Affairs minister Josep Borrell (smart and vocal anti-separatist born in Catalonia). Rufián was expelled from the the plenary room by Speaker Ana Pastor. On the other hand, it's becoming usual that Catalan nationalists and the parties of the Spanish Right exchange insults. PP and Cs spokepersons use to say that the Catalan separatists are "golpistas" ("coup plotters"); ERC spokepersons reply that PP and Cs are "fascist". Rufián called "fascist" to Borrell as well. Borrell replied that Rufián pours dung and sawdust because he doesn't know how to do anything else. Speaker Ana Pastor, whp is from PP, requested that all mentions to "fascists" and "coup plotters" were erased from session records. The environment sucks these days.  

In other news Pedro Sánchez announced a deal on Gibraltar and unblocks the Brexit summit

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/24/inenglish/1543070447_943022.html

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Gibraltar is relevant for the Andalusian campaign for obvious geographical reasons. The Spanish government approved recently an investment plan for the Campo de Gibraltar, located around the Rock in Cádiz province. There is a sharp contrast between the richness of the Rock ( tax haven and smugglers' nest) and the Campo de Gibraltar, a region that suffers high unemployment and the increasing activities of drug trafficking cartels.

[Velasco]

Celeste-Tel (eldiario.es) and NC Report (La Razón) are more 'conservative' in their predictions for the upcoming Andalusian election (December 2), downplaying the growth of Cs and the 'Vox effect'. Both pollsters predict similar results, with PP and Vox slightly higher in the case of NC Report. That's not strange given that their chief pollsters have a a personal link. According to Celeste-Tel, the result would be:

According to Narciso Michavila, who is the chief pollster of GAD3, 70% of Vox voters are male. Also, there is a higher percentage of voters switching between Cs and Vox than voters switching btween PP and Vox. Michavila explains that Cs voters are placed more to the centre but they are also more prone to change to a new party. There are three variables in this campaign, says the pollster: a) the left/right axis, b) the crisis of Catalonia (the right campaigning against the "coup plotters" and their accomplices Pedro Sánchez and the evil populists), and c) the feminist vindication. Michavila says that some men are looking to Vox as a reaction to the feminist wave, to the point that 10% of Vox voters comes from the left and is overwhelmingly male. Vox advocates the supression of the Gender Violence Law passed during the years of Rodríguez Zapatero (PSOE). The law is attacked by male chauvinists arguing that it goes against men.

La Vanguardia show us the correlation between vote and unemployment with maps. Historically municipalities with higher unemployment rates lean to the left (PSOE and IU to a lesser extent) and the municipalities with lower unemployment rates to the right (PP). The maps of the 2015 elections suggest that there is high a correlation between unemployment rate and vote for Podemos.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181125/453103700535/elecciones-andalucia-influencia-paro-comportamiento-electoral.html

Eldiario.es tells that PSOE is the winning force in more than a half of the Andalusian municipalities since the first regional election held in 1982. These municipalities are predominantly rural and small sized, located in the provinces of Seville, Jaén and Huelva. PSOE hegemony ith maps:

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/hegemonia-PSOE-Andalucia-invicto-municipios_0_838166410.html

[Former President tack50]

The final polling average before the election seems like it will end up mostly like this

PSOE: 35%
PP: 23%
AA: 20%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 4%

Seems like Cs has collapsed in the final stretch. Maybe they were being overpolled like in 2015? PP seems like it will go down a lot compared to 2015 but still come in 2nd, though there's a non negligible (but small) chance that AA comes in 2nd.

As for Vox, it's a tossup if they'll enter or not. In any case, 4% in Andalucia would mean something like 4.5% nationally at the very least, so assuming they don't collapse spectacularly after failing to enter (kind of like the 2014 EU election for them I guess) they will certainly get around 2 MEPs next year and UPyD-like numbers in the general election (4.5-5%; 4-5 seats)

Looking at the rest of the information, on Vox voters, I'd certainly not call everyone who wants to repeal the Gender Violence law of 2005 "male chovinists". There are legitimate reaons to want reform of that law, if I understand correctly it strips men of due process and "innocent until proven guilty" under certain circumstances (remember Cs originally wanted to repeal it as well)

Then again, that law was surprisingly passed unanimously, 332-0, and most parliamentary resolutions regarding "gender violence" pass unanimously so I imagine Vox will be the odd one out here.

Cs' vote has always been very unstable so it's no wonder former Cs voters are now defecting to Vox (particularly if they initially left PP based on the Catalonia issue, when Cs got a massive bump). The more interesting thing is that it's taking a non insignificant amount of left wing voters. I imagine most of those are populist Podemos voters. However on the long run it might be a greater threat to PSOE, by taking away from their base in rural Andalucia/Extramadura or the Asturias/Leon former coal fields (taken to the extreme, Asturias becomes Spain's West Virginia)

The remaining maps aren't very surprising, Andalucia is quite polarized on economic class, so it's no wonder that poorer, more unemployed areas lean left while more economically developed areas lean right.

In particular, I think the few urban municipalities that have always voted PSOE (like Dos Hermanas or Alcalá de Guadaira, just south of Sevilla) are also some of the poorest municipalities not just in Andalucia, but in all of Spain.

[Former President tack50]

Also related to the Andalusian election, here's an interesting Nate Silver-like statistical analysis of polls, with the seat chances of each party:



And here it is by coalition:



http://1datomas.com/interactivos/elecciones-andaluzas-2d/

They also have a different polling average

PSOE: 33%
PP: 22%
AA: 20%
Cs: 17%
Vox: 4%
Others: 4%

Another simulation by Kiko Llaneras seems a bit more benevolent for the right, giving PP+Cs roughly a 5% of getting a majority (which I imagine could increase very slighly with Vox)

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/23/actualidad/1542972340_447656.html

[Velasco]

Looking at the rest of the information, on Vox voters, I'd certainly not call everyone who wants to repeal the Gender Violence law of 2005 "male chovinists". There are legitimate reaons to want reform of that law, if I understand correctly it strips men of due process and "innocent until proven guilty" under certain circumstances (remember Cs originally wanted to repeal it as well)

Then again, that law was surprisingly passed unanimously, 332-0, and most parliamentary resolutions regarding "gender violence" pass unanimously so I imagine Vox will be the odd one out here.

There is a difference between reforming specific elements of a piece of legislation and repealing a law. The repeal of the legislation against gender based violence implies the rejection of its goals and philosophy. The aim of this law is to protect women from the violence that some men use against them. The rationale is that there exists a specific type of violence against women that is related to their historical discrimination and inferior position in society. Despite men and women are equal before the law nowadays, centuries of discrimination have ingrained machista attitudes and a sense of superiority in some men that sometimes are cause of violence. Male chauvinists use to argue this law discriminates men and deny the very existence of gender based violence, despite the fact that women are actually abused and killed. This law has elements of positive discrimination that may be controversial for some, but they are motivated by this historical discrimination and the need to protect women against this type of violence. I don't believe this law violates the presumption of innocence (would it be constitutional?).

The protection of women against gender based violence is one of the few issues where the different political forces found consensus. It may seem surprising, given that confrontation often dominates Spanish politics. This consensus allowed to pass a pioneering law for tackling gender violence from all perspectives. Also, it reflects the feelings and the alarm of the Spanish society with regards to the phenomenon of gender based violence. Despite possible defects or elements  subject to reform (i.e the protection of minor children or the issue with same sex couples), being the first country in Europe to pass a law like this is a matter of pride.

During the 2015 campaign Ciudadanos (by then a non-parliamentary force) advocated the repeal of the law based on a false idea of equality. Oranges were bashed for good reasons and had to rectify. Toni Cantó (Cs deputy, formerly UPyD) tweeted once that a majority of gender violence allegations is false and later had to apologize for believing false information posted on internet. One of the usual strategies of the male activists on the internet is overstating the significance of false allegations without empirical evidence, but they are in fact statistically irrelevant. I have read certain columnists claiming that men in Spain suffer a "silent Holocaust" because of this law, which is hyperbolic, false and nonsensical. Male chauvinism exists and Vox embraces it, as it embraces jingoism, xenophobia and other reactionary causes. I guess they are things a far-right party stands for.

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I agree on the first part: Cs voters tend to be volatile. I disagree on the rest. <to begin with, what is a "populist voter"? I assume that many individuals lack solid ideological convictions, but I suspect that they are not only Podemos and Cs voters. According to Michavila, 10% of Vox voters would come from the left and that's worth noting. However it's not enough to build a theory in the style of "the bulk of the Front National voters were communist supporters". Vox catches primarily in the PP and Cs fishing grounds.

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The maps don't need to be surprising. They must be illustrative and useful, especially for outsiders and non-experts.

EDIT: The variables in the Andalusian campaign are 4 (ideology, Catalan crisis, immigration and feminism) and not 3.

[Velasco]

Final prediction of Kiko Llaneras (aka the Spanish Nate Silver) for El País based on average polling.

Vote share: PSOE 32.8%, PP 21.4%, AA 19.5%, Cs 18%, VOX 4.7%

Probability of winning a majority:

PSOE alone 1%, PSOE+AA 96%, PSOE+Cs 91%, PP+Cs 3% (with VOX 4%)

Seats by province (deep blue: safe, light blue: likely, yellow: at stake)

Contest for the second place:  PP 70%, AA 17%, Cs 11%

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/28/actualidad/1543408692_128203.html

[Velasco]

Politico: "Spanish Right eyes deep south"
https://www.politico.eu/article/andalucia-election-ciudadanos-spanish-right-eyes-deep-south/

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The article linked above is focused on Ciudadanos. Inés Arrimadas, the Cs leader in Catalonia, was born in Andalusia (Jerez de la Frontera) and is very popular there. While campaigning in the Triana, the neighbourhood in Seville where Susana Díaz is from, people greets Arrimadas calling her "heroine". She overshadows completely candidate Juan Marín, who is walking by her side. Inés Arrimadas could be a strong candidate in a general election, if it were not for for the Albert Rivera's uncontested leadership in Cs. Certainly I would prefer her as leader, but I'd never vote for Cs anyway.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/28/actualidad/1543417538_880017.html

[Velasco]

Teresa Rodríguez, the candidate of Ahora Andalucía (AA), rules out a coalition government with the PSOE. The leader of Podemos in Andalusia reproached Susana Díaz for "putting VOX into the parliament" by including the far-right party in her campaign speeches. Andalusian premier is using VOX to attack PP and Cs, because blues and oranges don't rule out cooperation with the "misogynist" and "xenophobic" party. Teresa Rodríguez says that taking for granted that VOX will enter in parliament is an irresponsibility. She considers that the rise of VOX is the consequence of the fragmentation of the right, not due to the support of new voters.

Teresa Rodríguez makes an interesting description of susanismo* in an interview:

"It's an accommodated second generation PSOE which has not known either union struggle or Francoism, detached from working class, without ideology, which has opened wide the doors to the Right and speaks a language that we are unable to understand. Susanismo is incompatible with socialism (...)

The susanismo is a professionalized and urban-based PSOE that systematically blurs the barriers between government, party and administration."

Teresa Rodríguez says that AA won't permit a right-wing government in any case, but any cooperation with the PSOE will have to be based on programmatic agreements (social policies, education and employment) and it's only possible if socialists turn to the left.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/27/actualidad/1543321149_180017.html

Teresa Rodríguez is from Rota, a town in Cádiz province that hosts an US Naval Station (Navy and Marine Corps). Her partner is José María González (aka Kichi), the Podemos mayor of Cádiz. Teresa Rodríguez ran for Cádiz in 2015 but this time is running for Málaga, It's a strategic decision motivated by the need to strengthen the coalition in that province and Eastern Andalusia. Málaga is a hot contest with PP leader Juan Manuel Moreno running there, as well as the former coach of the Spanish basketball team Javier Imbroda runs for Cs. The IU leader in Andalusia Antonio Maíllo tops the AA list in Seville. There is a good chemistry between Teresa Rodríguez and him, according to the campaign reports.

*Susana Díaz is sometimes compared by rivals and detractors to Eva Perón and her governing style deemed as 'Peronist'.

[Velasco]

Conservative leader Pablo Casado defends his strategy of not attacking Vox arguing that it'd be attacking former PP voters. Casado says that they must show understanding to those voters switching to Vox because they don't feel represented by PP. Casado states that he aspires to lead the Spanish centre-right and aims to bring together that space once voters give the different forces a majority. This point of view is not shared by everybody in his party, with voices inside PP fearing that the Casado turn to the right alienates centrist voters. Other voices remark the surprising influence of a non-parliamentary party in the PP campaign. The fact is that Casado, who represents the right wing of PP, is hardening his stances even more assuming part of the Vox discourse. This becomes evident in the Casado's anti-immigrant proclaims (he resembles Sarkozy in 2012) or in proposals such as the re-devolution of Healthcare, Education and Justice to the central government. VOX not only stands for the re-devolution of competences, since the far-right party advocates for the supression of regional autonomy in Spain: One Country, One Parliament.

The VOX candidate in the Andalusian election is judge Francisco Serrano. Serrano is a vocal opponent to the legislation against gender based violence, which he deems "ideologically motivated". He was disqualified for two years from his position in a Family Court convicted of prevarication, for having modified the visit arrangements of a minor child in order he could go with his father to a Holy Week procession dressed as a Nazarene without asking the mother's permission. Serrano was reinstated as the two years expired, but he hasn't served as a judge again. The Vox candidate has been practising as a lawyer instead, representing fathers and associations and struggling against "radical feminism". Serrano is a "negationist judge" known by his controversial decisions on gender based violence and child custody , says El País.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/19/actualidad/1542624635_420629.html

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/19/actualidad/1542624635_420629.html   

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if the far right VOX will get 10% in Andalusia this Sunday ...

They are definitely rising fast in the polls and could establish a launching pod for the EU elections and a national parliament presence.

[Velasco]

I wonder if the far right VOX will get 10% in Andalusia this Sunday ...

They are definitely rising fast in the polls and could establish a launching pod for the EU elections and a national parliament presence.

VOX won't reach 10% , but it could get 5% or 6%  and that's too much. Certainly VOX is en route for winning seats in Strasbourg (sure) and in the Spanish Congress (very likely). There are some factors that could limit the VOX's growth, such as the lack of a charisnatic leader or its neoliberal stance in economic policy (here's a difference with Le Pen and Salvini). The demographic profile of its voters is apparently very specific (male, upper middle class, very right wing). I don't know if VOX has potential to break through its limits. The VOX rise has something to do with the fragmentation of the right and the decadence of the PP, the hegemonic party in that space until now. With Casado as PP leader, VOX people will be happy and satisfied.

[Velasco]

BREAKING: Former ANC leader Jordi Sánchez and former member of the Catalan government Jordi Turull announce they go on hunger strike. Both Catalan politicians are currently in prison awaiting trial.

In other news this week protests against budget cuts intensified in Catalonia

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/29/inenglish/1543495868_329385.html

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The Guardian: "Spanish prime minister facing first test as Andalusia goes to polls"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/30/spanish-prime-minister-facing-tough-test-as-andalucia-goes-to-polls

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Politico: " 5 things to watch in Andalusia's election"

https://www.politico.eu/article/andalucia-eleciones-5-things-to-watch-in-election/

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[Tender Branson]

My prediction for tomorrow:

30.2% PSOE (-5.2%)
19.5% PP (-7.2%)
19.3% Forward Andalusia (-2.5%)
18.7% C's (+9.4%)
  7.9% VOX (+7.4%)
  1.6% PACMA (+0.8%)
  2.8% Others (-2.7%)

Turnout: 68.6% (+6.3%)

[Velasco]

My prediction would be similar to the one I posted yesterday. I'm afraid I'm somewhat conservative on this subject

PSOE 32%, PP 21%, AA 19%, Cs 18%, VOX 5%

[Former President tack50]

I wonder if the far right VOX will get 10% in Andalusia this Sunday ...

They are definitely rising fast in the polls and could establish a launching pod for the EU elections and a national parliament presence.

There's no way Vox reaches double digits in Andalucia. 8% is their ceiling for now and that's generous. They are indeed rising fast and will almost certainly get national and EU presence.

In fact for the 2019 regional elections I could see them getting seats in all regions except Castille-La Mancha (extremely high threshold) and the Canary Islands (4% threshold now, but Vox is a horrible fit for the islands)

[BigSerg]

Today there was a vox demonstration in Madrid with more than 50000 attendees. That's more than the total votes he achieved in 2016

I think Vox would achieve 7-10% nationally at this time

[Former President tack50]

My prediction:

PSOE: 35%
PP: 22%
AA: 18%
Cs: 16%
Vox: 5%

Others: 4%

Sadly, Spain will join the rest of Europe in having a far right party. I was happy when we were one of the few remaining stronholds against that, now the title of "largest EU country without a far right party in parliament" will go to Romania