PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Boss_Rahm]

One way or another, the results of redistricting will leave their mark on this race. Lamb, Cartwright, and Fitzpatrick could all conceivably see unfriendly voters added to their districts, and Republicans will likely lose a district in the middle of the state. Any of them could decide to throw their hat in the ring. My only strong hunch is that Fitzpatrick would have a hard time winning a Republican primary.

[Boss_Rahm]

Why is Kenney unpopular?

Multiple inexcusable failures in the last 8 months alone:

https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/100000007174941/philadelphia-tear-gas-george-floyd-protests.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/27/philly-fighting-covid-vaccine/

[Boss_Rahm]

I know, I know, the comparisons are played out. But Georgia just elected a black pastor and a Jewish millennial and we're still doing the whole "Kenyatta is unelectable because he's gay and black" spiel. Give me a break.

One moment: Georgia isn't Pennsylvania

Wow really, I'd never considered that before.

Look, does anyone here have an actual reason why Fetterman is supposedly so much more electable than Kenyatta other than the fact he happens to fit our stereotype of what a white working class voter happens to look like? I can understand this argument with someone like Cartwright, who has actually had electoral overperformance in federal races before, but Fetterman's only won races in a heavily Democratic city and a crowded primary for lieutenant governor where he was the only Western Pennsylvania candidate running.

If you view swing voters in Pennsylvania as all racists and homophobes who won't vote for Kenyatta because he's a scary gay black man, then just be up front and say that.Both Kenyatta and Fetterman seem absolutely fine on policy and I'd be happy to run with either, but y'all need to actually base your arguments against Kenyatta on something more tangible than an imaginary aura of electability that Fetterman has.

unfortunately that is my belief

Very common misconception regarding PA. Anyone who's a homophobic racist in central PA hasn't voted for a Democrat since Casey in 2012 at the federal level (maybe Casey in '18 though it's more likely this hypothetical voter stayed home then). The swing voters of the Philadelphia suburbs are culturally liberal and will only become more progressive due to population growth. My childhood county of Chester has gone from Bush+10 in 2000 to Biden+17 because of the housing boom and good school districts. Just recently Democrats gained the party registration edge in Chester County for the first time ever. Voters here are repulsed by the poor handling of COVID+there's a number of young professionals who are struggling with student loan debt. Ditto for Pittsburgh metro, Pittsburgh's had a major tech boom in the past 5-10 years which is fueling population growth similar to the influx of young college grads in Colorado+Arizona.

I think the 2020 race is a true tossup regardless of whom the nominee is. Historically Democrats are at a disadvantage in PA midterms due to the New Deal Coalition of WWC and urban nonwhite base not showing up. However, they may actually have an advantage if the realignment of college-educated suburban voters holds, which would in turn require the GOP to have a phenomenal turnout effort in the rural areas of the state to have a shot of winning. Obviously PA's always gonna be a competitive state and it's gonna come down to which party can pump their base more.

This is all right. The most important groups of swing voters in PA right now are the large number in Bucks and Montgomery who voted Biden at the top of the ticket but R downballot. That's why for all the fretting in this thread about the D primary, I actually think the R primary will have more to do with who wins in November. That candidate will have to walk a very fine line between getting high turnout from Trumpy rural voters, without turning off those suburban swing voters who are repulsed by Trump.

[Boss_Rahm]

1) I would love to see Kenyatta drop down and run against Evans.  I actually think he’d have a better shot there. 

What's wrong with Evans? He seems like a pretty run-of-the-mill Congressional Dem (more on the progressive side given CPC membership and M4A support), and other than a few very minor controversies from his days as State Rep, I'm not seeing anything related to corruption or other major issues. I may just not be informed enough though, he's pretty low-profile as far as I can tell.

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Kenyatta in higher office - US Senate, House, a statewide PA office, really anything, as he's one of my favorite politicians right now. Just curious if there's an issue with Evans.

I'm in Evans' district. He takes the mainstream Democratic position on every issue, but sometimes it takes a lot of pushing even to get him there. For example, he held out for a while against net neutrality legislation. Kenyatta would be a lateral move in my opinion, but I'd love to get someone into that seat who's further to the left.

[Boss_Rahm]

In the primary I will be voting strategically against Lamb. In the general I will be voting for the Democrat.