Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Modalmais/Futura poll:

Size 2,000

1st scenario

Lula (Worker’s Party) 38,6%
Bolsonaro (no party) 32,4%
Moro (We Can) 11,9%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party) 6,2%
Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party) 1,8%
Leite (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 1,4%
Don’t know/don’t answer/undecided: 3,6%
Blank/null: 4%

2nd scenario

Lula (Worker’s Party) 37%
Bolsonaro (no party) 30,8%
Moro (We Can) 13,6%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party) 7,5%
Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party) 2,1%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 1,9%
Don’t know/don’t answer/undecided: 3%
Blank/null: 4,1%

3rd scenario

Lula (Worker’s Party) 42,3%
Bolsonaro (no party) 32%
Moro (We Can) 16%
Leite (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 2,5%
Don’t know/don’t answer/ Undecided 3%

4th scenario

Lula (Worker’s Party) 42,6%
Bolsonaro (no party) 31,7%
Moro (We Can) 16,3%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 3,1%
Don’t know/don’t answer/Undecided 3,9%
Blank/null 4,2%

5th scenario

Moro (We Can) 26,9%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party) 20,1%
Haddad (Worker’s Party) 16,6%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 4,1%
Don’t know/don’t answer/undecided 3,9%
Blank/null 28,3%

6th scenario

Moro (We Can) 29,1%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party) 19,4%
Haddad (Worker’s Party) 18,3%
Leite (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 3,1%
Don’t know/don’t answer/undecided 3,1%
Blank/null 26,8%

7th scenario

Lula (Worker’s Party) 43,4%
Bolsonaro 32,7%
Moro 17,4%
Don’t know/don’t answer/undecided 1,9%
Blank/null 4,7%

2nd round

Lula 49,2% vs. Bolsonaro 38,4%

Ciro 39,9% vs. Bolsonaro 40,9%

Moro 38,8% vs. Bolsonaro 35,7%

Lula 46,6% vs. Moro 33,6%

Ciro 31,2% vs. Moro 38,2%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

PoderData 2022 presidential election poll:

https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/poderdata-lula-tem-40-contra-31-de-bolsonaro-no-1o-turno/

1st round
Lula (Worker's Party) 40%
Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 31%
Sérgio Moro (We Can) 9%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party) 4%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 3%
André Janones (Forward) 2%
Alessandro Vieira (Citizenship) 1%
Rodrigo Pacheco (Social Democratic Party) 1%
Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement) 0%
Felipe D'Ávila (New Party) 0%

Runoff:

Lula 50 % vs. Bolsonaro 35 %
Lula 47% vs. Moro 32%
Lula 45% vs. Ciro 22%
Lula 46% vs. Doria 18%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

CNT/MDA Institute

2022 presidential election poll

Lula (Worker’s Party) 42,2%
Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 28%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party) 6,7%
Moro (We Can) 6,4%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 1,8%
Janones (Forward) 1,5%
Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement) 0,6%
D’Ávila (New Party) 0,3%
Pacheco (Social Democratic Party) 0,3%

Runoff

Lula 53,2% vs. Bolsonaro 35,3%

Bolsonaro 35,6% vs. Moro 34%

Bolsonaro 41,4% vs. Doria 29,8%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

2022 presidential election Ipespe poll:

Spontaneous vote

Lula (Worker's Party) 36%
Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 26%
Moro (We Can) 5%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party) 4%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 1%
Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party) 0%
D'Ávila (New Party) 0%
Blank/null/nobody 4%
Undecided/don't answer 24%

1st round

Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 28%
Ciro 8%
Moro 8%
Doria 3%
Tebet 1%
Leite 1%
Janones 1%
D'Ávila 0%
Vieira 0%
Blank/null/don't vote 7%
Undecided/don't answer 2%

Runoff

Lula 53% vs. Bolsonaro 33%
Lula 51% vs. Moro 30%
Lula 55% vs. Leite 17%
Lula 53% vs. Doria 18%
Lula 50% vs. Ciro 25%
Ciro 47% vs. Bolsonaro 36%
Doria 38% vs. Bolsonaro 37%
Moro 33% vs. Bolsonaro 33%
Bolsonaro 40% vs. Leite 35%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

PoderData poll 2022 13 - 15th March

Lula 40%
Bolsonaro 30%
Ciro 7%
Moro 7%
Leite 2%
Doria 2%
Janones 2%
Tebet 2%
D'Ávila 0%
Blank/null 5%
Don't know 3%

Runoff

Lula 50%
Bolsonaro 36%
Blank/null 12%
Don't know 2%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Sensus IstoÉ poll, April 8th - 11th

https://www.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2022/04/13/sensus-pesquisa-abril-lula-bolsonaro-eleicoes-2022.htm

Scenario 1st round  stimulated

Lula (Worker's Party) 43,3%
Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 28,8%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party) 6,3%
João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 2,6%
André Janones (Forward) 2%
Vera Lúcia (Unified Worker's Socialist Party) 1,1%
Simone Tebet (Democratic Brazilian Movement) 0,8%
Felipe D'Ávila (New Party) 0,1%
José Maria Eymael (Christian Democracy) 0,1%
Leonardo Péricles (Popular Unity) 0,1%
Sofia Manzano (Communist Brazilian Party) 0,1%

Blank/null 7,8%
Don't know/don´t answer 7,1%

Runoff

Lula 53,4% vs. Bolsonaro 34,1%
Bolsonaro 39% vs. Doria 34,4%
Ciro 41,9% vs. Bolsonaro 37,2%
Bolsonaro 40,4% vs. Tebet 30,5%
Lula 55% vs. Doria 17,5%
Lula 56% vs. Tebet 15,9%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

2022 presidential poll Ipespe/XP Investimentos

1st round - Stimulated scenario

Lula (Worker's Party) 44%
Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 31%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party)  8%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 3%
Janones (Forward) 2%
Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement) 1%
Vera (Socialist Unified Worker's Party) 0%
Eymael (Christian Democracy) 0%
Luciano Bivar (Brazil Union) 0%

Runoff:

Lula 54% vs. Bolsonaro 34%
Lula 52% vs. Ciro 25%
Lula 55% vs. Doria 19%
Ciro 45% vs. Bolsonaro 38%
Bolsonaro 39% vs. Doria 37%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

The former governor of Rio Grande do Sul Eduardo Leite is gay and he endorsed Bolsonaro in the runoff in 2018.

With a name like that, one would think that he would be the former governor of Minas Gerais.

The former governor of Minas Gerais is Aécio Neves, who is from the same party as Eduardo Leite, the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), a center-right party (but which was born as a center-left party in 1988). He ran for president of Brazil in 2014 against incumbent Dilma Rousseff of Worker's Party (PT), Brazil's main left-wing and center-left party.

He lost the presidency by a very narrow margin (Dilma had 51,64% and Aécio 48,36% of the votes in the 2nd round) and he complained of fraud because he was initially leading the vote count (like Trump in 2020), but after an investigation he accepted the result.

Involved in many personal corruption scandals such as Operation Car Wash, he and his party became extremely unpopular nationally, which gave way to the far-right candidacy of Jair Bolsonaro 4 years later.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

XP/Ipespe poll 26 - 29 ago/2022

Lula (PT) 43% (-1)
Bolsonaro (PL) 35% (0)
Ciro (PDT) 9% (0)
Simone Tebet (MDB) 5% (+1)
Soraya Thronicke (União Brasil) 0% (wasn't in the latest poll)
Felipe D'Ávila (NOVO) 1% (0)
Vera Lúcia (PSTU) 0% (0)
José Maria Eymael (DC) 0% (0)
Sofia Manzano (PCB) 0% (0)
Roberto Jefferson (PTB) 0% (wasn't in the latest poll)
Pablo Marçal (PROS) 0% (wasn't in the latest poll)

Blank/null 4%
DK/DA 2%

Runoff

Lula 53% vs. Bolsonaro 38%
Lula 51% vs. Ciro 31%
Ciro 48% vs. Bolsonaro 42%

https://static.poder360.com.br/2022/08/BRASIL-Eleic%CC%A7o%CC%83es-Gerais-2022-BR-043472022.pdf

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva 80%
Ciro Gomes 78%
Simone Tebet 63%
Jair Bolsonaro 19%