Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

I support neutrality btw! It has been funny to see some people in the center-left pissed about PT position on this as if it was EVER was something different. The neutral strategy has been going on since the 90s and passed throughout Lula and Dilma governments lol

I feel like these woke liberal progressives who think they’re leftists just got of age to vote and were on the PT train just because they believed they are the “Anti-Bolsonaro” option and thought they would defend turning the country into their Twitter-feed utopia.

That’s just suicide in a country as religious and with extreme regional particularities defined by wealth as Brazil. Seriously, I cannot with these “liberal leftists” and how arrogant they are when looking down at stuff that just defines our country whether they’re groups they belong to or not. I am gay and even though I will vote PT I don’t expect the party to go full force in our support for example (although they definitely are much more friendly than the right), but these clueless kids are about to get a shock.

And now they come with this idea that we should not be neutral when there was a literal military dictatorship here to ensure we wouldn’t pick a side in international polarization when someone had a minimal impression of us taking a side. We need to talk about our Cold War history more often and why strongly picking a side internationally is a disastrous idea.

No, no. Not here! We’re not submissive to take sides for other countries ego fights, be them US, Russia, China or anyone else.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/brynwales/status/1499075649146961930?s=21

Jajaja jajaja jajaja jajaja jajaja jajaja

[buritobr]

PoderData February 27th-March 1st
No big changes, Bolsonaro keeps slightly recovering, but Lula is still well ahead
https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1499054153271848967

[buritobr]

Although the states don't matter for the presidential election in Brazil, since we have a direct national popular vote, it is interesting to follow this profile in the Twitter, which collects the results of all presidential election polls conducted at the state level. This is a good thermomether for the national vote. https://twitter.com/agregadorde/status/1499777533608349701

[Red Velvet]

Although the states don't matter for the presidential election in Brazil, since we have a direct national popular vote, it is interesting to follow this profile in the Twitter, which collects the results of all presidential election polls conducted at the state level. This is a good thermomether for the national vote. https://twitter.com/agregadorde/status/1499777533608349701

Close to my prediction so far, actually even a bit more pro-Lula than I expected because of Paraná:

Basically all states matching with the polls minus Paraná.

Although until the election I expect things to narrow down and Paraná go to Bolsonaro as I expected, maybe even some states I gave Lula could get a little bit more Pro-Bolsonaro perhaps.

But I’m comfortable with my predix so far. Although I must admit Mato Grosso being more pro-Bolsonaro than Acre is a surprise to me. Then again, Acre was never that Right-wing, maybe we overestimated effects of recent trends as permanent when in parts they were kinda temporary.

ETA: Just saw that Paraná is the closest in the polls comparison (Lula 40% vs Bolsonaro 38%), so yeah, that’s so small that I definitely expect this to shift in favor of Bolsonaro in the election, especially in the case of an eventual runoff.

Besides, Paraná is the state with the most Moro voters and in the runoff they would mostly go to Bolsonaro, giving the victory to Bolsonaro over Lula in the state. My map is looking really accurate if there’s no major change between now and the election.

[buritobr]

Although the states don't matter for the presidential election in Brazil, since we have a direct national popular vote, it is interesting to follow this profile in the Twitter, which collects the results of all presidential election polls conducted at the state level. This is a good thermomether for the national vote. https://twitter.com/agregadorde/status/1499777533608349701

Close to my prediction so far, actually even a bit more pro-Lula than I expected because of Paraná:

Basically all states matching with the polls minus Paraná.

Although until the election I expect things to narrow down and Paraná go to Bolsonaro as I expected, maybe even some states I gave Lula could get a little bit more Pro-Bolsonaro perhaps.

But I’m comfortable with my predix so far. Although I must admit Mato Grosso being more pro-Bolsonaro than Acre is a surprise to me. Then again, Acre was never that Right-wing, maybe we overestimated effects of recent trends as permanent when in parts they were kinda temporary.

ETA: Just saw that Paraná is the closest in the polls comparison (Lula 40% vs Bolsonaro 38%), so yeah, that’s so small that I definitely expect this to shift in favor of Bolsonaro in the election, especially in the case of an eventual runoff.

Besides, Paraná is the state with the most Moro voters and in the runoff they would mostly go to Bolsonaro, giving the victory to Bolsonaro over Lula in the state. My map is looking really accurate if there’s no major change between now and the election.

Probably, Acre and Rondônia will be Bolsonaro's best states because of the high share of evangelic population in those states. The smooth recovery of Bolsonaro's approval rates from December 2021 to March 2022 comes from the evangelic population. In December 2021, Lula and Bolsonaro were tied in the group of evangelicals. Now, Bolsonaro has a significant lead.
Acre used to have a strong PT at the local level because the local PT leaders adapted themselves to that population.

[SnowLabrador]

With COVID receding in Brazil, Bolsonaro's approval is recovering just as expected. He's going to win.

[buritobr]

With COVID receding in Brazil, Bolsonaro's approval is recovering just as expected. He's going to win.

The recover in Bolsonaro's approval is very small. His approval rate is still much lower than it was in the second half of 2020, which was the interval between the first and the second Covid19 wave.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

2022 presidential election Ipespe poll:

Spontaneous vote

Lula (Worker's Party) 36%
Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 26%
Moro (We Can) 5%
Ciro (Democratic Labour Party) 4%
Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 1%
Boulos (Socialism and Liberty Party) 0%
D'Ávila (New Party) 0%
Blank/null/nobody 4%
Undecided/don't answer 24%

1st round

Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 28%
Ciro 8%
Moro 8%
Doria 3%
Tebet 1%
Leite 1%
Janones 1%
D'Ávila 0%
Vieira 0%
Blank/null/don't vote 7%
Undecided/don't answer 2%

Runoff

Lula 53% vs. Bolsonaro 33%
Lula 51% vs. Moro 30%
Lula 55% vs. Leite 17%
Lula 53% vs. Doria 18%
Lula 50% vs. Ciro 25%
Ciro 47% vs. Bolsonaro 36%
Doria 38% vs. Bolsonaro 37%
Moro 33% vs. Bolsonaro 33%
Bolsonaro 40% vs. Leite 35%

[SpartanburgSam]

Will Janaina Paschoal be the Brazil Union candidate?

[buritobr]

Will Janaina Paschoal be the Brazil Union candidate?

I think she will run for reelection for state representative of São Paulo in PL, Bolsonaro's party

[buritobr]

Real Time Big Data polls for state governors, March 12-15th

Rio de Janeiro
Marcelo Freixo (PSB, endorsed by Lula): 24%
Claudio Castro (PL, incumbent governor, endorsed by Bolsonaro): 23%
Rodrigo Neves (PDT): 10%

Minas Gerais
Romeu Zema (Novo, incumbent governor, endorsed by Bolsonaro): 40%
Alexandre Khalil (PSD, maybe endorsed by Lula): 23%

There was no results for president in these states. But other polls showed Lula leading in Minas Gerais, with similar margin to the national level. Minas Gerais always has results in the presidential elections similar to the whole nation. The vote for governor is not tied to the vote for president. Probably, there will be many Lula president, Zema governor voters in Minas Gerais.

[Red Velvet]

New poll from Quaest/Genial!!!

Lula (PT) 45%
Bolsonaro (PL) 25%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 7%
Sérgio Moro (PODE) 6%
João Doria (PSDB) 2%
André Janones (AVANTE) 2%

Runoff scenarios:

Lula 63% vs Bolsonaro 37%
Lula 67% vs Sérgio Moro 33%
Lula 69% vs Ciro Gomes 31%
Lula 79% vs João Doria 21%

In an eventual runoff without Bolsonaro, especially in a Lula vs Doria, there are a good number of Bolsonaro voters that would vote for Lula/PT before voting for Doria/PSDB lmao

The way the some PSDB voters went to the hard right and now despise PSDB more than anything because they see it as competition is quite something.

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

PoderData poll 2022 13 - 15th March

Lula 40%
Bolsonaro 30%
Ciro 7%
Moro 7%
Leite 2%
Doria 2%
Janones 2%
Tebet 2%
D'Ávila 0%
Blank/null 5%
Don't know 3%

Runoff

Lula 50%
Bolsonaro 36%
Blank/null 12%
Don't know 2%

[buritobr]

Details of the Quaest Poll, March 2022

Rate of Bolsonaro's administration
Negative 49%, Neutral 25%, Positive 24%

For president 1st round

All: Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 26%, Moro 7%, Ciro 7%

Female: Lula 48%, Bolsonaro 20%, Moro 5%, Ciro 7%
Male: Lula 41%, Bolsonaro 31%, Moro 7%, Ciro 6%

Elementary: Lula 56%, Bolsonaro 18%, Moro 4%, Ciro 5%
High School: Lula 39%, Bolsonaro 31%, Moro 7%, Ciro 8%
College: Lula 34%, Bolsonaro 28%, Moro 10%, Ciro 6%

<2 minimum wages: Lula 54%, Bolsonaro 19%, Moro 5%, Ciro 5%
2-5 minimum wages: Lula 42%, Bolsonaro 26%, Moro 7%, Ciro 7%
>5 minimum wages: Lula 37%, Bolsonaro 32%, Moro 6%, Ciro 8%

Catholic: Lula 51%, Bolsonaro 21%, Moro 6%, Ciro 6%
Evangelic: Lula 33%, Bolsonaro 38%, Moro 7%, Ciro 5%
Other: Lula 36%, Bolsonaro 17%, Moro 9%, Ciro 12%
None: Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 22%, Moro 6%, Ciro 9%

Northeast: Lula 60%, Bolsonaro 15%, Moro 2%, Ciro 10
North: Lula 43%, Bolsonaro 30%, Moro 5%, Ciro 7%
Southeast: Lula 42%, Bolsonaro 26%, Moro 7%, Ciro 5%
South: Lula 35%, Bolsonaro 29%, Moro 8%, Ciro 5%
Center-West: Lula 29%, Bolsonaro 39%, Moro 11%, Ciro 5%

Runoff
Lula 54%, Bolsonaro 32%
Lula 53%, Moro 26%
Lula 51%, Ciro 23%

[buritobr]

Quaest March 2022, questions related to Russia vs Ukraine war

View on Russia
All: unfavorable 68%, none 26%, favorable 7%
Bolsonaro voters: unfavorable 69%, none 24%, favorable 7%
Lula voters: unfavorable 65%, none 27%, favorable 8%
other voters: unfavorable 46%, none 51%, favorable 4%

Which side should Brazil support?
All: neutral 71%, Ukraine 20%, Russia 1%
Bolsonaro voters: neutral 78%, Ukraine 16%, Russia 1%
Lula voters: neutral 68%, Ukraine 21%, Russia 1%
other voters: neutral 70%, Ukraine 25%, Russia 1%

[Red Velvet]

Quaest March 2022, questions related to Russia vs Ukraine war

View on Russia
All: unfavorable 68%, none 26%, favorable 7%
Bolsonaro voters: unfavorable 69%, none 24%, favorable 7%
Lula voters: unfavorable 65%, none 27%, favorable 8%
other voters: unfavorable 46%, none 51%, favorable 4%

Which side should Brazil support?
All: neutral 71%, Ukraine 20%, Russia 1%
Bolsonaro voters: neutral 78%, Ukraine 16%, Russia 1%
Lula voters: neutral 68%, Ukraine 21%, Russia 1%
other voters: neutral 70%, Ukraine 25%, Russia 1%

I love this country neutrality/independence rooted in people minds. Although I expected even higher neutral support, still in the 70s but closer to 80%

On the ideal scenario we should steal Switzerland reputation on this.

[buritobr]

Quaest polls, state level, March 2022

São Paulo

Governor

Scenario 1
Fernando Haddad (PT) 24%
Marcio França (PSB) 18%
Tarcísio Freitas (PL) 9%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) 7%
Renata Abreu (Podemos) 3%
Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 3%
Vinicius Poit (Novo) 2%

Scenario 2 (no França and Boulos)
Fernando Haddad (PT) 30%
Tarcísio Freitas (PL) 11%
Renata Abreu (Podemos) 7%
Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB) 5%
Vinicius Poit (Novo) 3%

Runoff
Fernando Haddad 41%, Rodrigo Garcia 25%
Fernando Haddad 42%, Tarcísio de Freitas 27%

Senator

Scenario 1
Datena 39%, Paulo Skaf 13%, Marcio França 15%, Janaína Paschoal 6%
Scenario 2
Datena 42%, Marcio França 21%, Janaina Paschoal 8%

President
Lula 39%, Jair Bolsonaro 25%, Sergio Moro 8%, João Doria 3%, Ciro Gomes 5%

[buritobr]

Quaest polls, state level, March 2022

Governor
Zema (Novo) 34%, Khalil (PSD) 21%, other 22%
runoff: Zema 39%, Khalil 33%
runoff if the voters receive the information that Zema is endorsed by Bolsonaro and Khalil is endorsed by Lula: Zema 35%, Khalil 49%

President
Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 21%, Ciro Gomes 5%, Sergio Moro 6%, Janones 3%, Joao Doria 2%

[Red Velvet]

Paulo Guedes declarations about Paraguay becoming the Richest Brazilian State was genuinely one of the most disgusting things he said. And there’s lots of material, between the “maids traveling to Disney every year” and “All Brazilians owning one or two IPhones”.

And it’s fascinating how it’s always the formula of elevating a group to a false super wealthy status with such contempt that makes it clear that he doesn’t think it’s right. Like, most maids absolutely do not travel to Disney and there are Brazilians who don’t even have a phone, but the way he creates these false realities and make them sound like they were bad or wrong (if they happened to be true!) is a weird mix of class prejudice with lies/fake news that happens to be what I despise the most in politics and in this government.

But now that asshole even has to involve neighbor/friend countries into this constant BS that he always voices. Paraguay tweeted this, condemning the statement:

https://mobile.twitter.com/mreparaguay/status/1505179054437244930
I really really really hate the people in this government.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Paulo Guedes declarations about Paraguay becoming the Richest Brazilian State was genuinely one of the most disgusting things he said. And there’s lots of material, between the “maids traveling to Disney every year” and “All Brazilians owning one or two IPhones”.

Can’t believe I never heard about the maids comment. What a disgusting person.

[Red Velvet]

Paulo Guedes declarations about Paraguay becoming the Richest Brazilian State was genuinely one of the most disgusting things he said. And there’s lots of material, between the “maids traveling to Disney every year” and “All Brazilians owning one or two IPhones”.

Can’t believe I never heard about the maids comment. What a disgusting person.

It was when he was trying to spin the rise of the Dollar exchange rate vs the Real in 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic as actually a good thing:

Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said on Wednesday that a higher dollar is "good for everyone". He said that "everyone" was going to Disney, in the United States, including "housemaids", with the lower dollar. And he recommended that Brazilians should travel throughout Brazil.

"The exchange rate is not jittery, it has changed. There is no exchange business at R$1.80. Everybody was going to Disneyland, even housemaids were going to Disneyland, a huge party. Go to Foz do Iguaçu, go for a trip to the Northeast, it's filled with beautiful beaches. Go to Cachoeiro do Itapemirim…

A startup even had a give away of a trip to Disney to one housemaid after that comment lol

Guedes is the economy minister and he’s basically the most anti-poor person I’ve seen in a position of power lol. He genuinely appears to think poor people choose to be so or are lazy and it’s always cringe when he opens his mouth.

[buritobr]

Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) declined to run for governor of São Paulo. He will run for federal representative. Good decision. He and Fernando Haddad (PT) are very similar, and they shouldn't split the votes. Fernando Haddad has big probability to become the first PT governor of São Paulo.

PT and most of the PSOL are getting closer, although there is a minority wing in PSOL which doesn't want to endorse Haddad, they want to have an own candidate.

[buritobr]

After 34 years as a member of PSDB, Geraldo Alckmin is officially a member of PSB now. The media is expecting that in April he will be announced as Lula's running mate.

When I heard this conversation at late 2021, I didn't believe this ticket would really be built. I though Lula was intending only to show some moderation by mentioning the possibility of having Alckmin as a running mate, but in the end, I though the running mate would be still a non-left wing politician, but a less famous one.
But now we see that the ticket Lula-Alckmin is almost confirmed.

[Red Velvet]

Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) declined to run for governor of São Paulo. He will run for federal representative. Good decision. He and Fernando Haddad (PT) are very similar, and they shouldn't split the votes. Fernando Haddad has big probability to become the first PT governor of São Paulo.

PT and most of the PSOL are getting closer, although there is a minority wing in PSOL which doesn't want to endorse Haddad, they want to have an own candidate.

Sad because it’s not like PT really needed PSOL support to win this election. They always made clear the “wide front anti-Bolsonaro” is about reaching to the center and center-right, evidenced by putting Alckmin as VP.

And without any “radical” type of left option, it’s bad for the left in the long term. PSOL was the only one that represented that, but they also definitely changed a lot since its creation from a more radical socialist party into closer to a liberal softer brand of leftism. So it makes sense with the developments and their voters positions as well.

I feel like the field misses something, kinda like a PCP (Portugal) type of party. PSOL would be our BE and PT a middle ground big tent between PS and PCP (definitely closer to PS in practice though).