2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[Illiniwek]

Vote. Out. Lori.

[Illiniwek]

Obama is nowhere near despotic enough to make being the Mayor of Chicago be anything other than the most excruciatingly painful post-presidency move of all time. Why would he want to do that to himself? If I were him I'd say "haha thanks go ___ yourself."

[Illiniwek]

I'm not very impressed with the candidates. I like Chuy but I have my doubts he can win in the end. But I hope he does because Lori has got to go!

[Illiniwek]

https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/chicago-mayoral-election-new-poll-shows-lightfoot-trailing-garcia-vallas

Wow!

Chewy - 28
Vallas - 19
Leadfoot - 15
Crazy Willie - 13

Chuy vs Vallas (fingers crossed)

[Illiniwek]

I will be interested in seeing how Lightfoot's voter coalition shifts compared to 2019. Her strongest areas of support in the first round last time were some of the most heavily progressive wards whose voters I'd expect to be primed to go for Johnson or Garcia. My guess is she will put up a comparatively stronger performance in the black-majority wards and maybe places like River North/Streeterville, where there are more upscale, non-progressive whites (though Vallas may also have a strong showing here).

My impression is that the lakefront black wards (basically where Preckwinkle did best last time ironically) will be her best areas of the city.  I think she is a terrible fit for downtown/riv north but the fact that outside of Vallas there is no “moderate” or businessy Democrat means she will get 20% or so there perhaps (Im not counting Wilson as he is seen as a joke outside the black community).

My sense even before this poll was that Chuy is dropping rapidly as his campaign is awful.  At this point its a genuine 3 way tossup for the runoff between Chuy/Vallas/Johnson.

I will say though that Johnson running as the teachers union candidate is not as helpful as some here have implied.  The CTU is unpopular and that may be enough for him to scrape by with 20% or so into a runoff but I think he has a low ceiling.  The teachers union endorsements did Preckwinkle no good in 2019.

Agree with all. Vallas is basically the Bill Daley of this cycle. He’ll win downtown and the bungalow areas on the outskirts.

Will be interesting to see who performs best on the north side. Lightfoot probably, I guess.

I don’t think Johnson wins much of anywhere.

Respectfully, I really just don't see where Lightfoot gets any impressive support. Who does she appeal to at this point? If her best support is 18% from black voters, I don't see where she is going to do consistently solid anywhere on the map.

[Illiniwek]

Lightfoot internal:

https://twitter.com/craigrwall/status/1617630504047775744

Lightfoot -1, Vallas +8, Chuy -7, Johnson +5 from the internal she released last month.


In other news Brandon Johnson just released the most insane tax plan I've ever seen for a struggling city entering a recession.  A 3.5% "city income tax" on people making over 100k and a surcharge for taking Metra (which probably isn't legal anyway).  I guess he doesn't want more people taking public transit.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/2023/1/23/23568177/mayoral-challenger-brandon-johnson-taxes-real-estate-financial-transactions

Would be interesting to know how this internal poll is framing the questions and if they are tilted to suggest to the respondent that she is the incumbent.

In other news Brandon Johnson just released the most insane tax plan I've ever seen for a struggling city entering a recession.  A 3.5% "city income tax" on people making over 100k and a surcharge for taking Metra (which probably isn't legal anyway).  I guess he doesn't want more people taking public transit.

Oh HECK no! Metra is expensive enough as it is.

[Illiniwek]

How can Vallas win with police brutality back in the news?

It's most likely Johnson or Garcia that will win this thing

I went back and listened to an interview I heard him do in early 2022. At least at that time his point was that:
1. poor police leadership and organization leads to fewer police officers;
2. which leads to overworked and stressed out police officers;
3. which also leads to less appeal to apply to become a police officer;
4. which leads to poor candidates being hired because the high-quality candidates have no interest;
5. which results in poorly qualified candidates working long shifts in a poor mental state;
6. which finally leads to these worn down, poor quality cops either not doing their job or abusing their power.

I mean, as someone who has said "ACAB" previously, that message really resonated with me. There is a serious universal problem with racism in policing. But only focusing on that will not eradicate all the issues we face on that. Having high-quality cops who aren't overworked will help them do their jobs better and will help prevent nasty situations from unfolding.

Now, I don't know how well Vallas is doing in getting the position that I received well out to the voting public. But if he is doing that well, then I think recent events won't negatively affect him.

[Illiniwek]

New poll shows Lightfoot in first, followed closely by Wilson (!) 4.25% margin of error, lots and lots of undecided, so grain of salt obviously. Just reinforces how this is anybody's game still.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000186-0f2d-d41d-afce-bffd7bd60000

Press X to doubt. Chuy at 7%? I know he's dropping in the polls but that just seems impossible.

Can't find any other record of what 1983 Labs is. I feel pretty confident we can junk this one.

[Illiniwek]

https://chicago.suntimes.com/elections/2023/2/8/23589775/poll-lightfoot-garcia-vallas-sun-times-wbez-telemundo-chicago-nbc5-election-wilson-johnson-february

Those are among the key findings of a Chicago Sun-Times/WBEZ/Telemundo Chicago/NBC5 Poll conducted last week.

All falling within the poll’s margin of error, Lightfoot, Garcia and Vallas were essentially locked in a statistical dead heat when respondents were asked whom they would vote for if the Feb. 28 election were held today.

Garcia led with 20%, followed by Vallas with 18% and Lightfoot with 17%. Businessman Willie Wilson trailed closely with 12% and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson with 11%. Just 2% said they’d vote for activist Ja’Mal Green, and 1% chose either Ald. Sophia King (4th) or state Rep. Kam Buckner. Ald. Roderick Sawyer (6th) drew no support. Another 18% said they were still undecided.

...

The poll was conducted Jan. 31 through Feb. 3 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. A total of 625 registered voters were interviewed by telephone, all stating they were likely to vote in the Feb. 28 election.

Would be surprised if Chuy was actually leading at this point, but perhaps its possible. This certainly makes more sense than the poll that had him at 7%.

[Illiniwek]

https://elections.suntimes.com/quiz/

Kam Buckner 78%
Paul Vallas 74%
Roderick T. Sawyer 70%
Sophia King 65%
Ja'Mal Green 65%
Willie L. Wilson 61%
Brandon Johnson 52%
Chuy Garcia 43%
Lori Lightfoot 30%

This checks out. Although maybe Lori and Chuy are especially low because they didn't answer every question. But this is definitely directionally correct for me.

[Illiniwek]

Honestly, I was originally pulling for Chuy but after he endorsed Rossana Rodriguez's very questionable opponent I'm hoping Brandon Johnson can pull something off, no matter how unlikely it seems from what I know of the race's current dynamics. Just don't let it be Vallas or Lightfoot.

90+% chance it will be one of them at this point IMO

Who are you holding out hope for? Chuy? Johnson?

[Illiniwek]

NYT Page: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/28/us/elections/results-illinois-chicago-municipal-election.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc&region=RaceLin

Polls close at 8 ET

ET lol. The polls close at 7. Period.

[Illiniwek]

I am very pleased with the results tonight. Even though Johnson is probably too far left for my preference, and has some terrible positions like the Metra tax, I would be fairly ok if he won the runoff because he provide a real fresh change running the city, and maybe his radical plans could actually work.

But Vallas is in pole position, and I think he’s got the best plan to get the city back on track. I’m really glad to see that the first round voters supported him to the extent that they did.

Lori, I supported you in the runoff in 2019, but you are history. She did this to herself.

Chuy? Idk man you should have won this race. I enthusiastically supported him against Rahm, and I’m just stunned he came out so flat this year.

[Illiniwek]

I love it when Napervillians weigh in on Chicago elections.

It's like how Long Islanders and Hudson Valley people weigh in on New York City mayoral elections. Mayors have a No. 1 job, that is to keep people safe in the cities, whether they live in the city or suburban commuters.

A lot of Napervillians commute into Chicago for work and they probably want Vallas because he will let the cops do their jobs in patrolling the city they enter into to work and watch Cubs/Blackhawks/Bulls games....

Same thing with most suburbs outside of cities.

Yes, yes we do.

I love it when Napervillians weigh in on Chicago elections.

You know you love us

[Illiniwek]

Not sure why Pritzker just doesn't endorse Johnson at this point. Also not sure how any Dem would vote for Vallas at this point, given he's sh*t on basically every major Dem now.

It's not like Johnson is a generic D. He's on the left fringes of the party and was a pretty vocal defund the police supporter (and kind of still is). I don't think Pritzker wants to be associated with either of them, especially since if he runs for President he'll have to field constant questions about crime in Chicago.

One hundred percent. I don’t know why some people don’t seem to understand this.

People who don’t live here seem to want to make this a Republican vs Democrat thing. I can tell you that I know a host of people who are Democrats and Biden voters that will vote for Vallas in a couple weeks.

This. I know this is a very simple way of thinking about things (many of these voters will be thinking on simple levels....), but there are a lot of people here who think things were better when the town was run by the Daleys, and Vallas is the closest thing to having that in 2023.

[Illiniwek]

I can't help but think Johnson has all the momentum. I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't pull it off in the end.

[Illiniwek]

The 43-47% is a stubborn number for Vallas

That's why I'm changing my last minute prediction from Vallas to Johnson. I think it will be 52.5-47.5%.

Yep. Johnson should have this in the bag.

[Illiniwek]

Oh goodie. Effectively another 4 years of the Lori Lightfoot path to nowhere. Can’t wait.

[Illiniwek]

If you think the cops that are resigning now are toxic, wait until you see who will be left to replace them.

[Illiniwek]

Smdh:

https://wgntv.com/news/chicagocrime/shots-fired-in-the-loop-as-hundreds-of-teens-gather/

[Illiniwek]

Not really encouraging that Johnson's response is full of empathy for the teenagers but there is not a word of empathy for the people who were attacked at random on the street. Combined with his stand-offish attitude towards that journalist who asked him a basic and easy question about his transition team, getting Lightfoot 2.0 vibes here.

It's crazy how Chicago seems to have fallen for the same mistake twice. I'm sure when crime is even worse in 2027, the third time will be a charm for electing an anti-police candidate...

[Illiniwek]

The Mayor-Elect is out here equating these violent and destructive acts as silly decisions.

https://twitter.com/chicagocontrar1/status/1648853459234353155?s=46

But some of you have “hope.” Yay.