On the Record: NJ

[MarkWarner08]

Inspired by WalterMitty's on the record MA governor's thread, here is the thread to post your official prediction for the NJ Senate race so you can be called on it after the election:

Here is mine:
Kean 52 - Menendez 47

2000 Senate election results: 50% Corzine, 47% Franks
2006 Senate election results: 49% Menendez, 48% Kean

My prediction depends on the next two polls. If Menendez is down by 5% in the next two polls, this race is over.  It'll be very interesting to watch in which direction this race goes.

[MarkWarner08]

Kean 49-48

It will be the second closest senate race in the nation, after Missouri.

We both have a 49-48 race, for the sake of Democrats, let's hope it goes Menendez's way.

[MarkWarner08]

Kean 49-48

It will be the second closest senate race in the nation, after Missouri.

Why do you think MO will be that close?  I think Talent will probably pull ahead and win by more like 5.  I personally think PA and MT will be much closer.

Talent has outspent McCaskill 12-1.

Do you remember Michigan's 2000 Senate race?
Spencer Abraham spent $14 to Debbie Stabenow's $8 million  and Abraham  led Stabenow by 17% in mid October. Democrats wrote off this race, but Stabenow won because she saved all her money up for a late ad buy in the last 3 weeks of the election.

McCaskill can also win because she's following the same game plan.

[MarkWarner08]

Menendez but it could be really close...and he could lose if Kean opens a wider lead.

Exactly ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[MarkWarner08]

Here we go again... it looks like Rob Andrews is angling for the Dem Senate nomination if Menendez goes the way of "the Torch."

This is the insider report from politicalwire.com:

"Rep. Robert Andrews (D-NJ), who was riding an Amtrak train late last week to New Jersey, was overheard talking on his cell phone "about a scandal breaking that very evening implicating" Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), according to Roll Call.

The source on the train said Andrews discussed "the prospect of Democrats having to replace Menendez on the ballot with another Senate nominee." (Political Wire readers will remember Andrews wanted the appointment to replace Jon Corzine but Menendez got the nod instead.) The informant heard Andrews say, "A 60-day campaign is doable; a 30-day campaign is death."

However, a second source on the train "confirmed that quote but said it had nothing to do with a possible replacement on the ballot. He said it had to do with the timing of the Menendez scandal and whether it would be easier to deal with 30 or 60 days from Election Day."

Both sources confirmed Andrews said, "He's no Forrester," implying that Tom Kean, Jr. (R) is a much more formidable candidate than former GOP Senate nominee Doug Forrester (R)."