On the Record: NJ

[DownWithTheLeft]

Inspired by WalterMitty's on the record MA governor's thread, here is the thread to post your official prediction for the NJ Senate race so you can be called on it after the election:

Here is mine:
Kean 52 - Menendez 47

[adam]

I think Kean will screw up what would normally be an easy GOP take over.

Menendez win:
50-49-1

[DownWithTheLeft]

Funny how it seems most of the forum was thinking or has switched to thinking Kean will win, but Menendez is doubling him up.  And if people are going to vote, please state who u r and what you voted you can be pointed out later if you picked Menendez because you will be wrong.  Personally, I think Menendez is the worst option, there is a better chance another Dem will win the race.

[Moooooo]

Ill go with Menendez by a slightly smaller MOV than Corzine.

[DownWithTheLeft]

It's not over until its over, but at this point I think Kean is the favorite.

It's close to over, one more Menendez scandal and were talking close to likely Republican from lean Republican.

[YRABNNRM]

I'd like to think that Kean would win but come on, this is New Jersey we're talking about!

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'd like to think that Kean would win but come on, this is New Jersey we're talking about!

Just when I was starting to think you might be a Republican

It doesn't matter, NJ wouldn't have voted Torricelli in 2002, and won't Menendez in 2006.

[riceowl]

I'd like to think that Kean would win but come on, this is New Jersey we're talking about!

Just when I was starting to think you might be a Republican

zhuh?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'd like to think that Kean would win but come on, this is New Jersey we're talking about!

Just when I was starting to think you might be a Republican

zhuh?

He is showing that he is really a closet Democrat and Menendez supporter trying to make the GOP look bad.

[riceowl]

I'd like to think that Kean would win but come on, this is New Jersey we're talking about!

Just when I was starting to think you might be a Republican

zhuh?

He is showing that he is really a closet Democrat and Menendez supporter trying to make the GOP look bad.

Because he wants the GOP candidate to win?

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'd like to think that Kean would win but come on, this is New Jersey we're talking about!

Just when I was starting to think you might be a Republican

zhuh?

He is showing that he is really a closet Democrat and Menendez supporter trying to make the GOP look bad.

Because he wants the GOP candidate to win?

He only says that, if he really supported Kean, he would realize he was the favorite, as even most Menendez suporters are.

[adam]

I'd like to think that Kean would win but come on, this is New Jersey we're talking about!

Just when I was starting to think you might be a Republican

zhuh?

He is showing that he is really a closet Democrat and Menendez supporter trying to make the GOP look bad.

Because he wants the GOP candidate to win?

He only says that, if he really supported Kean, he would realize he was the favorite, as even most Menendez suporters are.

Right-wing paranoia at it's finest.

[YRABNNRM]

I'd like to think that Kean would win but come on, this is New Jersey we're talking about!

Just when I was starting to think you might be a Republican

zhuh?

He is showing that he is really a closet Democrat and Menendez supporter trying to make the GOP look bad.

Because he wants the GOP candidate to win?

He only says that, if he really supported Kean, he would realize he was the favorite, as even most Menendez suporters are.

I'm just being a realist. Supporting a candidate doesn't believe you need to blindly believe that they will win.

[WalterMitty]

tom kean jr.

ill say 50-49-1

[MarkWarner08]

Inspired by WalterMitty's on the record MA governor's thread, here is the thread to post your official prediction for the NJ Senate race so you can be called on it after the election:

Here is mine:
Kean 52 - Menendez 47

2000 Senate election results: 50% Corzine, 47% Franks
2006 Senate election results: 49% Menendez, 48% Kean

My prediction depends on the next two polls. If Menendez is down by 5% in the next two polls, this race is over.  It'll be very interesting to watch in which direction this race goes.

[Boris]

Kean 49-48

It will be the second closest senate race in the nation, after Missouri.

[MarkWarner08]

Kean 49-48

It will be the second closest senate race in the nation, after Missouri.

We both have a 49-48 race, for the sake of Democrats, let's hope it goes Menendez's way.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Kean 49-48

It will be the second closest senate race in the nation, after Missouri.

Why do you think MO will be that close?  I think Talent will probably pull ahead and win by more like 5.  I personally think PA and MT will be much closer.

[Boris]

Kean 49-48

It will be the second closest senate race in the nation, after Missouri.

Why do you think MO will be that close?  I think Talent will probably pull ahead and win by more like 5.  I personally think PA and MT will be much closer.

The last like twelve polls released have shown a statistical tie between McCaskill and Talent. I say Talent wins by half a percentage point in the end.

PA - Casey wins by four (although I could conceivably see Santorum winning, but not by more than 2)
MT - Tester wins by two.

[MarkWarner08]

Kean 49-48

It will be the second closest senate race in the nation, after Missouri.

Why do you think MO will be that close?  I think Talent will probably pull ahead and win by more like 5.  I personally think PA and MT will be much closer.

Talent has outspent McCaskill 12-1.

Do you remember Michigan's 2000 Senate race?
Spencer Abraham spent $14 to Debbie Stabenow's $8 million  and Abraham  led Stabenow by 17% in mid October. Democrats wrote off this race, but Stabenow won because she saved all her money up for a late ad buy in the last 3 weeks of the election.

McCaskill can also win because she's following the same game plan.

[HardRCafé]

He only says that, if he really supported Kean, he would realize he was the favorite, as even most Menendez suporters are.

I support Kean, but New Jersey is a hole.  Do you want a real prediction or a pep rally?

Don't answer that.

[© tweed]

Kean 50%-Menendez 48.5%

Polls will show Kean up by 5-7% coming into election day and Menendez will look like he's got a shot come 11 PM on 11/07 but he'll fall short.

I've got one thing to say:

Fuck Dick Codey's wife

[HardRCafé]

In the romantic or vindictive sense?

[Kevin]

Kean is going to win this by 50-48.

[auburntiger]

I'd love to see the GOP take this seat, but there are alot more DEMs in NJ than GOPers. I'd say tossup, but will probably go DEM by 2-3 points. I just don't see NJ electing a Republican. I'd say of the seats Democrats are defending, NJ is THE one to change though followed by MN, MD, WA, MI.

I think OH, PA, and MT will be DEM pickups. I think RI and MO will stay GOP. TN will also stay GOP