NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

OK, I will start posting here. I think this should become a megathread.



Of the various weighting options, it seems like across all the polls the way NYT/Siena is weighting is the most GOP-friendly of all the other options they list.

Dems generally do better when you don't weight by primary vote, use census data instead of voting records, and don't weight by education.

However, I think the NYT/Upshot methodology on weighting is the most methodologically sound of the options, and likely the most accurate as compared to the others. That means that some other public polls may be overstating the Dems, perhaps.



As opposed to weighting methodology, it is a little bit harder to tell a systematic difference between different turnout models. So far, in some districts the broader turnout models seem better for the GOP, and in others better for Dems.

Yep, when the methodology that is the most sound isn't showing a #BlueWave, we need to pay attention.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

65+ white female on a cell phone non-college, HS grad or less, republican, almost certain to vote,prefers Republicans to retain the house, doesn't know if she supports assault weapon ban, disagrees that she feels like a stranger in her own country, disagrees that discrimination against whites has gotten as bad as against blacks, economic situation is better than parents, doesn't bother her to hear immigrants speak a foreign language in a public place, and doesn't know someone who has struggled with addiction to opiods.

Doesn't sound like a typical MN-03 resident.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I think Miller seems to be heading for a double-digit lead. Not at all a comfortable margin for a district that Trump won by 49 points, but forcing Republicans to invest here in the first place is great. Less money to go to around for other districts like VA-02 and VA-07, where they might be caught flat-footed.

But, I was told that Ojeda would win by double-digits and the race was Lean D because Ojeda was so #populist and a June poll showed him leading. Anyway, here's why Bevin is an underdog in 2019.

LOL

Told you guys not rely on the #populist rural districts. They'll stab you in the back every time the second some black guys in the NFL kneel. Focus on the burbstompings like VA-10, PA-17, and newcomer MN-03.

Racist WV Hicks will not vote for Ojeda even though he seems like a "good fit", as he is a member of the anti-white hate group (Democratic Party.)

...and the rightward economic shift of the party continues. It won't surprise me if Dems become the party of the 1% soon.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Nice to see Dems reaping what they sow for disrespecting the rurals. Hope this is a good wake-up call for them to drop the unneeded cultural battles that the 1% likes and go back to their roots.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The WI-01 results are great news for Walker. Milwaukee burbs are gonna flood the polls for him. A real #Burbstomping.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

ME-02 is going to be a very interesting race to watch, since it may give us the best indication of how many coveted (WWC #Populist ) Obama/Trump voters might be coming back to the Democratic Party. Of course, you can't jump to too many conclusions from just one race, but the swing here was massive from 2012 to 2016, and we could get some indication of where areas like this are headed in future elections.

Golden is a special case, though. He is a Dem who hearkens back to an era when they were the party of the Common Man, not bougie housewives and Old Money Billionaires who love their abortion and hate guns. Dems today have joined the GOP as the 2nd Party for the 1%ers. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Trende wrote that based on these polls he sees Democrats picking up 30 seats. So I guess these polls aren't very favorable for Democrats.

Yep, that's too low of a wave. That just means 2020 will be a huge GOP comeback during a presidential year.