NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1039223425116585987?s=19

Nate Cohn must read Atlas, he took my suggestion!

Hopefully they do this for all districts from here on out.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This poll will show +3 Hurd and +6 Beto

I think that is about the right expectation.

[RINO Tom]

Nice to see Dems reaping what they sow for disrespecting the rurals. Hope this is a good wake-up call for them to drop the unneeded cultural battles that the 1% likes and go back to their roots.

LOL, you don't hope that at all ... what would you post about?!

[Xing]

Since we're making predictions, I'll guess Ortiz Jones +2 and Beto +5

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Following up my own comment – in the currently active Brat poll, almost all of the responses are from suburban Richmond, even though the calls roughly follow population distribution. There are vast areas of these districts that aren't picking up their phones at all.

Have there been any studies of geographical response bias?

The non-Chesterfield/Henrico parts of the district are about 40% of the population, so it does look like they are a bit undersampled so far.

On that note, looks like they started up again in VA-07, so we will see soon if that shifts it towards Brat a bit.

[ON Progressive]

lmao @ that one guy who approves of Trump and is voting for Cruz in the Senate race calling himself an "UNDECIDED INDY"

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

lmao @ that one guy who approves of Trump and is voting for Cruz in the Senate race calling himself an "UNDECIDED INDY"

Tbf, he doesn't like Will Hurd... this guy might be a little racially anxious

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

TX-23 has started.

A white male Senior post-grad is undecided.

100 Undecided, 0% for both Ortiz-Jones and Hurd.

The two party system is crumbling, folks!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

lmao @ that one guy who approves of Trump and is voting for Cruz in the Senate race calling himself an "UNDECIDED INDY"

So Cruz is actually overperforming Hurd, contrary to all expectations. With a very reliable sample size of 1.

[Predictor]

2 undecideds, one Ortiz Jones, and one Hurd now. This is gonna be a wild ride.

[ON Progressive]

The response rate in TX-23 is absolutely awful. Not even 1%!

[Xing]

lmao @ that one guy who approves of Trump and is voting for Cruz in the Senate race calling himself an "UNDECIDED INDY"

He's probably an Atlas user without an avatar, tbh.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

lmao @ that one guy who approves of Trump and is voting for Cruz in the Senate race calling himself an "UNDECIDED INDY"

He's probably an Atlas user without an avatar, tbh.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Amazing how 5 of their 6 completed polls are within a point.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

In VA-07, Brat has pulled narrowly ahead. The regional distribution is still probably a bit too Henrico/Chesterfield heavy (but less so than it was).

However, other demographics of the sample are currently probably too favorable to the GOP. More men than women, undersampling non-whites, and also they only sampled 2 18-29s so far (neither of which were for Spanberger, so that is dragging her down a bit). So my guess is Spanberger may be able to come back a bit (and either pull close to a tie or maybe ahead) when those demographics start getting more responses and more weighting.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Don't look now, but Ojeda is catching up again in WV-03.

Only down by 2 points now, 45-43. LOL at those who were writing him off based on an incomplete poll within the MOE.

[Zaybay]

Don't look now, but Ojeda is catching up again in WV-03.

Only down by 2 points now, 45-43. LOL at those who were writing him off based on an incomplete poll within the MOE.

Watch it end with a 1 point difference. Though I am happy that hes gaining again!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't look now, but Ojeda is catching up again in WV-03.

Only down by 2 points now, 45-43. LOL at those who were writing him off based on an incomplete poll within the MOE.

Atlas is the training ground for the Jumping to Conclusions Olympics.

[wbrocks67]

Unless things change, the running theme here so far is that all of these Republican Incumbents can barely crack 45%.

[BundouYMB]

In what is quickly becoming a recurring theme for Democrats in these polls, Spanberger is doing faaar better among those who are certain to vote. +7!

(And same story for Ojeda, who is +4 among those certain to vote.)

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Unless things change, the running theme here so far is that all of these Republican Incumbents can barely crack 45%.

Yep. I will happily take that, as that means that these seats are all very much winnable. In almost all cases, the Republican incumbents are struggling against Dem opponents who still have quite low name ID (the exception being McGrath in KY-06).


On another note, Dave Brat now is ahead 83%-0% among undersampled 18-29s in VA-07 (sample size of 6...). Even with that dragging her down though, Spanberger is only down by 1!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I don't think the end result for TX-23 will be very accurate... the response rate is so dang low that I think they'll have a lot of trouble getting to even 400 respondents.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I don't think the end result for TX-23 will be very accurate... the response rate is so dang low that I think they'll have a lot of trouble getting to even 400 respondents.

I suspect that the response rate is low for some of the same reasons that turnout is typically so abysmally low there. If you polled CA-21, you would probably also get a horrendously low response rate.

[KingSweden]

Don't look now, but Ojeda is catching up again in WV-03.

Only down by 2 points now, 45-43. LOL at those who were writing him off based on an incomplete poll within the MOE.

Atlas is the training ground for the Jumping to Conclusions Olympics.

“It’s a Jump to Conclusions Mat! Get it?! You JUMP... to conclusions!”

[DINGO Joe]

Don't look now, but Ojeda is catching up again in WV-03.

Only down by 2 points now, 45-43. LOL at those who were writing him off based on an incomplete poll within the MOE.

Atlas is the training ground for the Jumping to Conclusions Olympics.

“It’s a Jump to Conclusions Mat! Get it?! You JUMP... to conclusions!”