Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

El País: "Political deadlock in Spain takes toll on increasingly divided parties"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/09/23/inenglish/1474618460_544509.html

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[Velasco]

Strain in Podemos; Rajoy sits back letting things go

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Kiko Llaneras' prediction for Basque Country elections (statistic model based on polls)

EAJ-PNV 27 (26-29) seats; EH Bildu 16 (15-18) seats; Elkarrekin Podemos 15 (13-16) seats; PSE-EE (PSOE) 9 (7-10) seats; PP 7 (6-8) seats; C's 1 (0-1) seat

Results in 2012 (Total 75 seats): PNV 27, EH Bildu 21; PSE-EE 16; PP 10; UPyD 1

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/09/22/ratio/1474570444_224041.html

Prediction for Galicia

PP 40 (38-42) seats; En Marea 17 (15-19); PSOE 15 (13-16); BNG 2 (1-4); C's 0 (0-1)

PP majority: 84% chance. Leftwing majority: 11% chance.

Results in 2012 (Total 75 seats): PP 41; PSOE 18; AGE 9; BNG 7

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/09/22/ratio/1474503886_481732.html

[jaichind]

Is not the Basque Country elections one way for PP to get closer to a majority?  Whereas the 2012 results gave BNP and PSOE a majority of seats now that same combination most likely will not get a majority.  BNP will need PP's support to pass a budget.  If so then PP can then demand BNP back PP at the center.  If this were to take place would this not put more pressure one PSOE in the center ?

[Velasco]

Is not the Basque Country elections one way for PP to get closer to a majority?  Whereas the 2012 results gave BNP and PSOE a majority of seats now that same combination most likely will not get a majority.  BNP will need PP's support to pass a budget.  If so then PP can then demand BNP back PP at the center.  If this were to take place would this not put more pressure one PSOE in the center ?

PNV spokepersons have stated clearly that in neither case they will support Mariano Rajoy in Madrid.

Actually the PNV candidate doesn't need PP to be elected, due to the particular regulation of the Basque parliament, according to which negative votes don't count in the investiture. In case PSOE seats are not enough to add a majority to the PNV in the first vote, Mr Urkullu could be easily elected in a second vote. The only way to prevent it is that an alternative candidate could get more votes; the only option -dismissed by the polls- would be one backed by EH Bildu and Podemos -in case both parties could reach an agreement-. As for the budget and other legislation, it won't be an issue. PNV has a long record in negotiations with other parties; in the past legislature they governed in minority backed mainly by PSOE, but they occasionally passed legislation with the support of EH Bildu. PNV will apply what Zapatero called once "variable geometry", that is to say, reach deals with one party or another depending on issues.

_{I assume that "BNP" means "Basque Nationalist Party"}

[jaichind]

_{I assume that "BNP" means "Basque Nationalist Party"}

Yes. Sorry for bad use of their abbreviation.  I know it should be EAJ/PNV but I just typed what came to my mind since in English they are the Basque Nationalist Party.   

Thanks for your info on how the Basque Parliament works. 

[jaichind]

Another angle where today's election might affect national alignment is if PSOE does poorly then that could trigger a coup against Sanchez within PSOE which in turn might alter the PSOE policy toward PP with respect to abstaining in the next vote of confidence.

[Mike88]

Polls close in Galicia and Pais Vasco. Exit polls released:

Galicia

PP: 38-41 seats
En Marea: 14-16 seats
PSOE: 14 -16 seats
BNG: 5-6 seats
C's: 0-1 seats

Pais Vasco

PNV: 27-30 seats
Bildu: 16-18 seats
UP: 13-15 seats
PSOE: 8-10 seats
PP: 7-8 seats
C's: 0-1 seats

[Mike88]

10% counted in Galicia

PP: 56,6% 47
PSOE: 17,8% 14
En Marea: 12,3% 8
BNG: 7,8% 6
C's: 2,4% 0

Nothing yet from Pais Vasco

[jaichind]

Where are links to results ?

[Mike88]

24% counted in Galicia:

PP: 53,5% 45
PSOE: 17,8% 13
En Marea: 14,7% 12
BNG: 8,0% 5
C's: 2,7% 0

50% counted in Pais Vasco:

PNV: 37,5% 28
Bildu: 21,5% 17
UP: 14,7% 12
PSOE: 12,2% 9
PP: 10,0% 9

[Mike88]

Where are links to results ?

Galicia

http://resultados2016.xunta.gal/11AU/DAU11999CM.htm?lang=gl

Pais Vasco

http://www.euskadielecciones.eus/resultados/indexambito?pAmbito=00000&pModoVisualizacion=1

[jaichind]

Looks like PP over-performing exit polls in  Galicia so far

[jaichind]

35% counted in Galicia:

PP: 51.49% 44
PSOE: 17.95% 13
En Marea: 15.67% 12
BNG: 8.12% 6
C's: 2.88% 0

[Mike88]

Looks like PP over-performing exit polls in  Galicia so far

If Vigo, Coruña, Pontevedra and Santiago hold up, yes.

[Mike88]

65% counted in Pais Vasco:

PNV: 37,4% 28
Bildu: 21,7% 17
UP: 14,6% 12
PSOE: 12,1% 9
PP: 10,1% 9

[Mike88]

40% counted in Galicia

PP: 51,6% 42
PSOE: 18,0% 14
En Marea: 16,0% 12
BNG: 8,1% 6
C's: 2,9% 0

En Marea closing in on PSOE.

[Mike88]

56% counted in Galicia:

PP: 49,7% 42
PSOE: 18,1% 14
En Marea: 17,3% 14
BNG: 8,2% 5
C's: 3,1% 0

88% counted in Pais Vasco

PNV: 37,5% 29
Bildu: 21,6% 17
UP: 14,8% 11
PSOE: 12,0% 9
PP: 10,1% 9

[Mike88]

65% counted in Galicia

PP: 49,2% 42
En Marea: 17,7% 14
PSOE: 18,1% 13
BNG: 8,3% 6
C's: 3,2% 0

"Sorpasso" in Galicia

[jaichind]

77% counted in Galicia:

PP: 48.52% 41
PSOE: 18.04% 14
En Marea: 18.22% 14
BNG: 8.33% 6
C's: 3.23% 0

Convergence to exit polls although it seems PP will outperform the exit polls vote share even if it does not exceed exit polls in terms of seats.

[Velasco]

98.81% in Basque Country

PNV 37.59%   28
EH Bildu 21.28 %  18
EP  14.82%  11   
PSE-EE 11.93 %  9
PP 10.19%  9
C´S   2.02%  0

[jaichind]

90% counted in Galicia:

PP: 47.98% 42
En Marea: 18.68% 14
PSOE: 17.89% 13
BNG: 8.36% 6
C's: 3.32% 0

[Velasco]

Basque Country (99.9%)
EAJ/PNV 29; EH Bildu 17; Podemos 11; PSE-EE 9; PP 9

Galicia (95.4%)
PP 41; En Marea 14; PSOE 14; BNG 6

[Zanas]

Quite an underperformance for UP (EP) in Euskadi, especially in Gipuzcoa, but I guess vote utile for Bildu played in full, as we could expect from the final polls. Interesting that, for now, both PNV-PSE or PNV-PP would have majorities. But with this mandate, I guess PNV will govern in minority making deals on the way.

In Galicia, slight underperformance also for En Marea, barely topping PSOE in votes but on par in seats. PP actually strengthening their share from 2012, and C's a non-entity.

[Mike88]

Podemos rips the agreement with the PSOE in Castilla-La Mancha

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2016/09/26/actualidad/1474878315_387940.html

[Lumine]

Any chance of Sanchez being ousted before a third election?