Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Devils30]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

[Devils30]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

The thought of Ds undoing GOPmanders through the State Supreme Court didn't pass my mind, so thanks for bringing that up.
How feasible is that in practice, though?

Hard. All 9 are currently conservatives, and GA has non-partisan court elections which incumbents hardly ever lose.

I expect a serious effort probably flips the court by 2030 or 2032.

Maybe?  I think this would be a viable strategy in Texas where the justices run in explicitly partisan elections and they would be able to undo a gerrymander in less than a decade if the state moved their way like we saw in PA and NC (hardly a given now for TX), but non-partisan court elections make it much harder.  Think of the 3 Chiles appointees staying around until 2019 in Florida or the moderate-left bent of the Kentucky supreme court that continues to this day. 

The best solution would be the Supreme Court just redoing the 2015 case and declaring all redistricting commissions unconstitutional. That way the Dems can do what they want to CA, WA, NJ, CO, VA and both sides are pretty much on even footing.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1442601673315307521?s=21

The GOP is also surprisingly tame in GA as well for this proposed map. Only making McBath's seat more of competitive seat and Bordeaux's seat a Dem sink. I expected 9 R - 5 D map of making GA-6 a Dem sink and GA-7 a new safe R district.

What are the 2020 numbers for GA-6 and 11?

[Devils30]

Republicans are so screwed next redistricting cycle. Even under compact districts that arguably pack black voters in my map, Warnock still won 31/56 state senate districts, and most marginal seats are trending bluer.

Georgia feels like something that a court will invalidate in 2026 and the Dems will gain 3 seats in 2028.

[Devils30]

The GOP has to resist the temptation to obsess over Georgia going forward. They will more than compensate for its loss by winning the Midwestern former blue wall states.

[Devils30]

More short-sighted behavior from Dem activist groups who don't understand the idea of trends or care that too many majority-minority districts is VERY BAD for the party.

Under the old map, you could totally see GA-6 and GA-11 becoming a dummymander by 2028, 2030 and the state leg maps becoming a problem for the GOP like they did in Virginia in the late 2010s. Now this just lets the GOP re-gerrymander the state.

Even in 2022 Senate, the median state house district was like Walker +4 and Trump +9 in 2020. The fact that the median swung that much further to the left than the state as a whole from 2020-2022 is a sign the Dems could have eventually benefited.

[Devils30]

More short-sighted behavior from Dem activist groups who don't understand the idea of trends or care that too many majority-minority districts is VERY BAD for the party.

Under the old map, you could totally see GA-6 and GA-11 becoming a dummymander by 2028, 2030 and the state leg maps becoming a problem for the GOP like they did in Virginia in the late 2010s. Now this just lets the GOP re-gerrymander the state.

Even in 2022 Senate, the median state house district was like Walker +4 and Trump +9 in 2020. The fact that the median swung that much further to the left than the state as a whole from 2020-2022 is a sign the Dems could have eventually benefited.

And here come the people who just see the images and don't actually read the what the plaintiffs wanted or the courts order. Not directed at you but it constantly has happened this cycle.  And then these people are shocked when the court doesn't do what they expect. Cause the plaintiffs get to respond to the state's attempt, they always say that this fails to satisfy the conditions and relief detailed by the judges themselves,  and we end up with a master.

After looking at the 95-85 Trump GOP state leg map, I do think Dems could break that by 2028-2030 and even 2026 if Trump wins in 2024.

[Devils30]

This lawsuit isn’t worth it for Dems.

[Devils30]

What is median seat in the GA assembly and state senate under the new map?

As I said before, the congressional map was terrible challenge for the Dems. You could see them breaking the GOP gerrymander later in the decade in 6 and 11 but not anymore.