Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1729222070704488462?s=46

[Nyvin]

Still 18 safe D seats in the Atlanta metro, and 5 in southern Georgia, 23 total.   None of them being remotely competitive.  

Went from 10 black majority to 12 black majority districts in the Atlanta metro, although SD-33, which was 44% black, is now 36% black.

[Oryxslayer]

So this would be a punt. Not cause its Dem getting drawn out. Rather cause they are defying the court order on where (10, 16, 17, 25, 28, 30, 34, 35, 43, and 44 is the ordered area) how and why to create the districts. In doing so racial gerrymandering (the crucial point) the region to try and make it the some Dem seats that go away. As usual, people will defend it right up until judicial review says nah.

They probably feel like they can get away punting to a master cause it's only two districts and potentially another that gets weakened through cascading changes, not a bunch that could through the chamber to tossup. And they would try to do this for probably a simple reason:

The bigger issue for the GOP though is the specified south suburbs seats are all held by Senate Leadership. Brian Strickland, the most initially at risk in SD17, is Chair of the Judiciary Committee. He lives deep in Henry County, in a super-blue majority-AA McDonough precinct. Marty Harbin in SD16 is chair of the Oversight Committee. He lives just east of Tyrone in Fayette. Newman Senator Matt Brass, chairman of the powerful Rules Committee and in line for high leadership, is the SD28 incumbent. SD30, while technically just outside of the blast radius, is home to former Majority Leader Mike Dugan.  

[Nyvin]

All they really did is re-arrange the Safe D districts in/around Atlanta.  The Republican seats were barely even touched at all.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't understand why Rs just settle for a more solid 31R-25D state Senate map. In this era of polarization, 31R-25D is still a comfortable governing majority for most big partisan issues plus it's not like a supermajority is realistic for Rs at this point.

Basically add 2 new black seats in Southern Atlanta while pushing the other Atlanta seats each a bit north, in turn making seats like 32, 37, 45, and 56 safer for Rs long term.

Ofc as Oryxslayer points out though there are leadership in seats that would likely be most affected which is problematic.

[Oryxslayer]

The biggest danger to the GOP in the senate under a master map, and one they perhaps may not foresee right now, is the unification of Athens. Special masters generally try to make sensible choices regarding COIs, while minimizing overall disruptions. This would likely lead to a reunification of Walton and the master making changes to the 45/46/47 area around Athens. If they reunite the county, it doesn't matter what neighboring areas the county is paired with, say Madison and parts of Jackson like right now. The seats going to be marginal at worst for Dems. And that would theoretically give Dems a path to a tied chamber that would not exist if they didn't try to pass a racial gerrymander past court scrutiny.

[Nyvin]

Probably the worst violation of the map is that it leaves districts 17 and 34 way overpacked at 66% and 70% black respectively, while leaving 16 safe R at only 24% black.   All three seats were cited in the court order.

Also it moved SD-33 from BVAP plurality to WVAP plurality.

[Oryxslayer]

Now I want to see if they are going to try to sell State House and Congressional snake oil to the court and plaintiffs. Cause unlike the Senate, the electoral Sword of Damocles on both those maps is very much known and visible. As I tried to elaborate in the effortpost, on those two maps defying has a high making things even worse for the GOP than the initially expected outcomes: one cause the small size of the districts means even minute changes for compactness can push district partisanship unintentionally, the other cause restoring compactness to the Atlanta region likely leads to a competitive semi-successor to the old GA-06 in addition to the ordered western district.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1729600472883863613?t=RDWwrg1tJEcuBMvb9...

State House map dropped.  Gonna need more data than just this inage to see if it's likely to last.

[Oryxslayer]

DRA link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/1cd4d3d0-fdbb-4cad-aa3d-a44aa660081b

So this one's much more of a mixed bag when compared to the State Senate. Which makes it difficult to say whether the map will be accepted in part or deemed unacceptable for failing to comply with the order in full.

The Macon region has two new majority-African American access seats. The State GOP somehow found a way to go for the Macon Esselstyn option rather than looking east to 128, likely because there's a retirement we don't know about yet. Also cause they decided to include A chunk of Monroe in one of the districts. Not every seat is created equal here, and it does a few of the things the court found offensive about Cooper's exploratory map, but there are the ordered changes.

In regards to the three Atlanta seats ordered, the State House pulls the same tricks as the state senate by renumbering districts to make changes to Dem areas outside of the scope of the order. These being mainly District 40 in Cobb and some others in north DeKalb.

Racial gerrymandering that a court review would disapprove of is needed to make said changes. This includes like making the DeKalb and Fulton districts even more uncompact and analogous to tentacles previous GA courts have disfavored, similar to yesterdays senate plan. But it also includes a split of Griffin, a bleaching of the GOP Henry and Douglas seats specifically cited in the order, some headscratcher decisions in Newton, and a reshuffling of the Gwinnett seats. This includes racially sorting the Gwinnett region so that the GOP could add Whites to the marginal 105 and 108. But no changes to the northern suburbs where the majority could be lost.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/ET_Californian/status/1729611087874560314
https://twitter.com/ET_Californian/status/1729611760020472191

[politicallefty]

Are we expecting the Congressional map today?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1730299652287635461?t=2X74KBcLnQ_fyC3aI...

As usual,  never believe political games can survive the scrutiny,  cause legal relief isn't supposed to be political. It's this disconnect that requires so many special master maps.


Also, the fact there isn't a congressional map even on the site yet suggests one of 3 things. Either its something that blatantly violates the order and won't last long, one of the controversial Republicans with a loud fanbase is getting cut and they want to dodge their outrage,  or there just won't be a congressional map. It wouldn't be the first time the GA legislature gavels out without a court ordered map.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gpbnews/status/1730333392879681999
Stephen Fowler is a great resource for Georgia politics in general, especially redistricting.  His X feed is https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1730681726936965557?s=46

[Minnesota Mike]

DRA link.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::791c433f-2866-4322-8f49-c8044403a56f

[Oryxslayer]

Surprised they chose to violate the orders details when the dangers of letting a master remap the Atlanta region are well known.  I guess now though we get to see if something like the old GA-06 built out of mainly North Cobb and Fulton  comes back, in addition to the western seat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1730681726936965557?s=46

Lol even though they didn't cede another Dem seat, I love how you can tell every year they get more scared of metro Atlanta.

[Devils30]

More short-sighted behavior from Dem activist groups who don't understand the idea of trends or care that too many majority-minority districts is VERY BAD for the party.

Under the old map, you could totally see GA-6 and GA-11 becoming a dummymander by 2028, 2030 and the state leg maps becoming a problem for the GOP like they did in Virginia in the late 2010s. Now this just lets the GOP re-gerrymander the state.

Even in 2022 Senate, the median state house district was like Walker +4 and Trump +9 in 2020. The fact that the median swung that much further to the left than the state as a whole from 2020-2022 is a sign the Dems could have eventually benefited.

[Oryxslayer]

More short-sighted behavior from Dem activist groups who don't understand the idea of trends or care that too many majority-minority districts is VERY BAD for the party.

Under the old map, you could totally see GA-6 and GA-11 becoming a dummymander by 2028, 2030 and the state leg maps becoming a problem for the GOP like they did in Virginia in the late 2010s. Now this just lets the GOP re-gerrymander the state.

Even in 2022 Senate, the median state house district was like Walker +4 and Trump +9 in 2020. The fact that the median swung that much further to the left than the state as a whole from 2020-2022 is a sign the Dems could have eventually benefited.

And here come the people who just see the images and don't actually read the what the plaintiffs wanted or the courts order. Not directed at you but it constantly has happened this cycle.  And then these people are shocked when the court doesn't do what they expect. Cause the plaintiffs get to respond to the state's attempt, they always say that this fails to satisfy the conditions and relief detailed by the judges themselves,  and we end up with a master.

[Devils30]

More short-sighted behavior from Dem activist groups who don't understand the idea of trends or care that too many majority-minority districts is VERY BAD for the party.

Under the old map, you could totally see GA-6 and GA-11 becoming a dummymander by 2028, 2030 and the state leg maps becoming a problem for the GOP like they did in Virginia in the late 2010s. Now this just lets the GOP re-gerrymander the state.

Even in 2022 Senate, the median state house district was like Walker +4 and Trump +9 in 2020. The fact that the median swung that much further to the left than the state as a whole from 2020-2022 is a sign the Dems could have eventually benefited.

And here come the people who just see the images and don't actually read the what the plaintiffs wanted or the courts order. Not directed at you but it constantly has happened this cycle.  And then these people are shocked when the court doesn't do what they expect. Cause the plaintiffs get to respond to the state's attempt, they always say that this fails to satisfy the conditions and relief detailed by the judges themselves,  and we end up with a master.

After looking at the 95-85 Trump GOP state leg map, I do think Dems could break that by 2028-2030 and even 2026 if Trump wins in 2024.

[Minnesota Mike]

More short-sighted behavior from Dem activist groups who don't understand the idea of trends or care that too many majority-minority districts is VERY BAD for the party.

Under the old map, you could totally see GA-6 and GA-11 becoming a dummymander by 2028, 2030 and the state leg maps becoming a problem for the GOP like they did in Virginia in the late 2010s. Now this just lets the GOP re-gerrymander the state.

Even in 2022 Senate, the median state house district was like Walker +4 and Trump +9 in 2020. The fact that the median swung that much further to the left than the state as a whole from 2020-2022 is a sign the Dems could have eventually benefited.

And here come the people who just see the images and don't actually read the what the plaintiffs wanted or the courts order. Not directed at you but it constantly has happened this cycle.  And then these people are shocked when the court doesn't do what they expect. Cause the plaintiffs get to respond to the state's attempt, they always say that this fails to satisfy the conditions and relief detailed by the judges themselves,  and we end up with a master.

We don't know what the court will do or almost as importantly when they will do it. It might seem clear to us but when it comes down to it nobody here really knows. I'm no lawyer but to me it seems there is a relatively good chance any final resolution gets kicked past the 2024 elections and this map has at least some chance of being in effect for this cycle.

[Oryxslayer]

More short-sighted behavior from Dem activist groups who don't understand the idea of trends or care that too many majority-minority districts is VERY BAD for the party.

Under the old map, you could totally see GA-6 and GA-11 becoming a dummymander by 2028, 2030 and the state leg maps becoming a problem for the GOP like they did in Virginia in the late 2010s. Now this just lets the GOP re-gerrymander the state.

Even in 2022 Senate, the median state house district was like Walker +4 and Trump +9 in 2020. The fact that the median swung that much further to the left than the state as a whole from 2020-2022 is a sign the Dems could have eventually benefited.

And here come the people who just see the images and don't actually read the what the plaintiffs wanted or the courts order. Not directed at you but it constantly has happened this cycle.  And then these people are shocked when the court doesn't do what they expect. Cause the plaintiffs get to respond to the state's attempt, they always say that this fails to satisfy the conditions and relief detailed by the judges themselves,  and we end up with a master.

We don't know what the court will do or almost as importantly when they will do it. It might seem clear to us but when it comes down to it nobody here really knows. I'm no lawyer but to me it seems there is a relatively good chance any final resolution gets kicked past the 2024 elections and this map has at least some chance of being in effect for this cycle.

Resolution certainly could get kicked back if the state changes it's tune, but they really have no time. The emergency stay they have yet to ask for would have to suddenly emerge and be granted despite all developments in the last month. This congressional map will be passed next week to meet the December 8th deadline. We don't know how scheduling will go, but its seems possible with dates that the master is working while government is on holiday. This court doesn't want anything it disapproves of to be used in 2024, so it would have to be an 11th intervention.

The Georgia defendants may have a plan for what happens after the session to further stall, but we will have to see. Perhaps a Purcell appeal after the court examination of the maps. Their position right now is not good. For reference, these are the relevant parts found at the end of the order pertaining specifically to the current congressional situation. The legislative issues are more scattered:

[Stuart98]

Split minimizing map that would make all these Republican state legislatures a lot more hesitant about defying court orders in the future:

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

What are the odds this new congressional map is enacted?

Guess McBath can just go back home now lol