COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[emailking]

That's a huge increase for Saturday and it looks like only 1-2K may be backfill.

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320690788628598784

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1320711322284281862

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321051933654863872

I think it was like 50 days ago when he first said we were rounding the turn.

[emailking]

1. The virus is becoming less deadly as time progresses; and/or

I know you're saying this is just 1 of 7 things that are happening, but this keeps being brought up and no one can give a reason for why it would be happening. And in fact, it seems unlikely that it would be happening since the virus is doing so well and you're contagious well before you're even sick.

[emailking]

Looks like 30K of that Tuesday number is backlog?

[emailking]

Meanwhile.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327840088731029504

omg he is sickening.

[emailking]

I know there's a delay but deaths don't seem to be going up as much as I would have thought by now...we've been exponential or nearly for a few weeks. It was similar in the summer.

[emailking]

I don't think those demonstrations were a good idea, but there is a huge quantitative difference between outside with masks and inside, eating, with no masks.

[emailking]

Tuesdays are usually worse than Monday though and this was better so that's something I guess.

[emailking]

What if it took years to make a vaccine? We are damn lucky that we are within days of Pfizer being ready to seek emergency use authorization. But what if we had a pandemic that took 5 years to make a vaccine? Are we really going to be ing caged animals for 5 years?

If we're playing what ifs, what if the virus had  50% kill rate. Would you support lockdowns multi-month lockdowns then?

The economy is already turning down even without the lockdowns. Maybe force of law shouldn't be applied at this point, but people definitely shouldn't be out and gathering if it's not necessary.

[emailking]

Of course I would! But Covid 19 does not have a 50% kill rate.

And the vaccine isn't going to take 5 years. People are suggesting we just get through this since the vaccine is coming soon.

And I have made it crystal clear I oppose any conventions or large gatherings!

Large and small should be avoided if not necessary.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1328904038520418305
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/fact-check-coronavirus-vaccine-could-come-year-trump-says-experts-n1207411
Fact check: Coronavirus vaccine could come this year, Trump says. Experts say he needs a 'miracle' to be right.
“There’s a lot of things that could go wrong,” one expert said.

“I think we’re going to have a vaccine by the end of the year,” he told reporters later in the day.

But experts say that the development, testing and production of a vaccine for the public is still at least 12 to 18 months off, and that anything less would be a medical miracle.

“I think it’s possible you could see a vaccine in people’s arms next year — by the middle or end of next year. But this is unprecedented, so it’s hard to predict,” said Dr. Paul Offit, a professor at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.

[...]

Dr. Walter Orenstein, a professor at Emory University and the associate director of the Emory Vaccine Center, said a vaccine in less than a year would be “miracle.”

While technically possible, he added, it is unlikely.

“There’s a lot of things that could go wrong,” Orenstein said.

Dr. Stanley Plotkin, credited with inventing a rubella vaccine in 1964, said developing a vaccine in a year to a year and half was “feasible,” but dependent on the efficacy of the vaccines currently in development and on the ability to mass produce them.

“In the best of circumstances, we should have a vaccine — or let's say vaccines — between 12 and 18 months," he said. "Whether those circumstances will be the best or not, we don’t know."

There's nothing new here. The Trump War Room tweet is disingenuous. I've heard many experts say that a vaccine might be developed this year but it would not become available until sometime next year. And that's what's going to happen.

[emailking]

• Deaths: 258,302 (+2,048 | ΔW Change: ↑72.54% | Σ Increase: ↑0.80%)

My grandmother is in this set unfortunately.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1330278689200857088
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1330282078223687686

[emailking]

An actual decrease! Here's hoping Friday was peak. Although I guess Thanksgiving might drive things up regardless.

[emailking]

I've been trying to grocery shop in the morning before work when there's not that many people there, and always use the self checkout.

[emailking]

Wait, we almost broke the record on a holiday? Next week's numbers are going to be horrific.

I don't think so. On worldometers they reallocated a bunch of cases to Thursday. They have 150K for Thanksgiving and 164K for today.

[emailking]

I believe that breaks the record from April for deaths in a day.

[emailking]

I don't think we quite got there but we'll blow through it next week if not tomorrow.

Cases was a record today so hospitalizations & deaths are going to continue to get worse for weeks to come.

[emailking]

That could put a damper on any plans Donnie has to run again.

Hopefully though these folks' life expectancy hasn't been impacted that much.

[emailking]

Lots of improvement needed, but I'll take this Earth over whatever the heck Earth we were on the last 4 years.

[emailking]

I think outdoor dining should be allowed. Transmission is low outside.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1335679426516881409

[emailking]

Here's another chart-topping smash from the "why nobody trusts the media" greatest hits collection.

The media has reported multiple times that South Dakota (the state with the most lenient covid rules) has the highest per capita number of covid deaths. But this isn't even close to being true. New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts make up the top 3, and those states were pretty strict.

Not sure why the media chooses to make up stuff. Maybe it's something against the northern Plains, or the Midwest in general. Maybe they're mad because a person from South Dakota hurt their feelings or something.

There were some journalists and commentators who I respected a lot before this, but my respect for them is out the window now.

I haven't seen this reported anywhere. Cursory googling I could only find stories claiming this for the past week.