COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[emailking]

I hope the Biden admin keeps turning the tide against Covid-19 and its variants.

Are we actually finally "turning the corner" for real?

On the variant we've been dealing with for a year, probably. On the new strains, who knows. The vaccines are effective, but they're a lot more contagious.

[emailking]

Biden's goal was to reopen schools within the first 100 days. There's still time for that to happen.

[emailking]

Is the issue that they want to stay closed until they get the early vaccine and DeWine is saying you have to be open first? If the latter, I see where they're coming from at least. But I'm not saying it outweighs reopening schools. Really we just need to get these people vaccinated ASAP.

[emailking]

US life expectancy dropped a full year in first half of 2020, according to CDC

Life expectancy in the US dropped a full year in the first half of 2020, according to a report published Thursday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics. Experts say that Covid-19 was a significant factor contributing to the decline.

The life expectancy for the entire US population fell to 77.8 years, similar to what it was in 2006, CDC data shows.

Changes to life expectancy also widened racial and ethnic inequities. Compared to 2019, life expectancy for non-Hispanic Black people in the US fell about three times what it did for non-Hispanic White people, by 2.7 years. It fell by twice as much for Hispanic people, by 1.9 years.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/18/health/life-expectancy-fell-pandemic/index.html

[emailking]

I read this article, and I can’t understand where this calculation is coming from. 

Covid has killed about 0.15% of Americans.  If the deaths were equally spread across all age groups, whis would result in an overall decline in life expectancy of about 0.05 years.  And since the deaths were heavily weighted toward older people, this number is actually much, much lower. 

The article says it also accounts for things like drug overdoses and alcoholism as a result of the shut downs, but these would have to be like 100x more deadly than the actual virus for the total to make sense.

I don't know but here's the report.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/VSRR10-508.pdf

[emailking]

May I ask a serious question?

How come much of the left has been very pro-lockdown when it clearly hurts the poor the most? and when you argue against lockdowns, they respond with retorts so dismissive that its clear they did not read past the first sentence.

Not trying to insult anyone or start a fight here.

Because it would hurt them even more if they got Covid?

But yeah, what we should be doing is increasing taxes on the rich and giving additional help to the poor until we get through this.

[emailking]

We have officially lost as many Americans as we had during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War combined, a lingering legacy from Trump's mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic:

US tops 500,000 virus deaths, matching the toll of 3 wars

Fortunately, it is highly unlikely that we will surpass the combined death toll (North and South) we suffered from the American Civil War.  

Why do you say that? I thought the models were showing another 100K deaths.

[emailking]

I think it just means the cases are levelling off so things are more noisy now. They could still keep decreasing on average, but we're no longer on the heavy downslope that dominated any noise for a couple weeks. So some back and forth now is to be expected.

[emailking]

Not just that but also just saying nothing will return to normal after the vaccine. 

The problem is we don't know when after the vaccine is. Everyone is saying things like 2022 will look at lot more like 2019 than 2020.

[emailking]

Yeah I think basically everyone is on board with that. It's the rest of this year where there's still some uncertainty. Because we don't know how long vaccinating will take and how bad the variants will be in the meantime.

[emailking]

I don't know how long it will take. A contract isn't shots in arms. I'm fine with your estimates, but I don't know.

[emailking]

Not just that but also just saying nothing will return to normal after the vaccine. 

The problem is we don't know when after the vaccine is. Everyone is saying things like 2022 will look at lot more like 2019 than 2020.

Should we drop our masks immediately after one dose?

Yes.

My understanding is that even if you're fully vaccinated the virus can still replicate in your nose.

[emailking]

Why are cases still going up? We're vaccinating more people and there haven't been any major superspreader events, so what gives?

I don't think the vaccines are playing into it much yet. We came down fast off of a huge peak (which is expected in theory). Now it may just be random fluctuation.

[emailking]

Why would people who oppose masks be vindicated?

Lockdowns and masks clearly don't work, but it appears as if vaccines do.

I understand your criticism of the lockdowns, but other than the few instances I've heard of someone with a medical condition being forced to wear them anyway, I really don't see what the problem with masks is.

[emailking]

First lady should get it so she is less likely to infect the President, for whom the vaccine might not work.

[emailking]

The governor of Texas said the virus is still here even while removing all the restrictions. His reasoning, flawed or not, is that Texans know how to deal with it now, not that the pandemic is over.

[emailking]

Neanderthals may have been wiped out by homo sapiens. They were also likely superior in almost every way except intelligence.

[emailking]

The "if yours works, why do I need one" argument has been debunked many times in this thread.

[emailking]

Yeah I guess. Even an N95 brings the chances way down, but there were supply shortages on those for months. But you've been able to get them for a while now.

[emailking]

I live in Toronto where there are mask mandates indoors with about a 99% compliance rate. Our largest spike in cases was well after the mask mandate came into effect.

On its own, that tells you nothing about whether masks work or not.

[emailking]

Can we get a megathread 7 for "the sunset" or "everyone should get a vaccine"?  "Dawn of the Presidential Superspreader" is about as far from topical as it gets, and this thread is now well over 100 pages.

Agree. Though I'm no sure we're close to the end of the pandemic worldwide. WHO already said they don't expect it over in 2021. But we will be in a much better spot this fall than we're today, there is no question about that.

I thought megathreads weren't going to be split anymore now that the forum can easily handle threads longer than 2000 replies.

[emailking]

People will just assume they don't have to wear masks any more. And I'm obviously not getting a vaccine for a long time thanks to second shots being prioritized.

Part of the guidance today was to continue wearing masks in public places if you're vaccinated. The reason they gave these guidelines because they know if they tell vaccinated people to stay in cocoons then they'll just ignore everything.

[emailking]

Biden will announce tonight that all Americans will be eligible for the vaccine by May 1st. I think that means eligible to sign up, there won't be enough supply for everyone until the end of May.

[emailking]

I'll be happy to shake hands if people start doing it again. But I'm sanitizing as soon as no one's looking, lol.

[emailking]

And once everyone who wants to be vaccinated is vaccinated, why limit it to small groups? Why any limits whatsoever?  

Because it might not be herd immunity and people who don't want to be vaccinated can still get sick and die, as can the 5-40% of those for whom the vaccine is not effective.