Spanish elections and politics

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I missed this, but news from Catalonia: The CiU alliance has broken down after 37 years due to the independence issue (UDC opposes independence).

[Velasco]

I missed this, but news from Catalonia: The CiU alliance has broken down after 37 years due to the independence issue (UDC opposes independence).

Yes, that happened past week. Sorry for not updating, but it'd be good that someone was paying attention. Thank you for mentioning the issue, CrabCake.

"The end of an era: Catalan nationalist bloc CiU breaks up after 37 years"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/06/18/inenglish/1434637443_661020.html

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[Velasco]

The last poll conducted by CEO in Catalonia shows a downward trend in support to independence.  According to that survey 50% would vote "no" in an eventual referendum, while 42.9% would vote "yes" to independence. With regard to the March survey released by the same sociological institute, dependent on Catalan government, "yes" is 1.2% down and "no" increases 2%. On the elections scheduled in September, 58.1% will decide voting position depending on party proposals to confront the crisis, while 21.1% will decide depending on the relationship between Catalonia and Spain. Answers reflect that Artur Mas pretension to call elections as a plebiscite on independence is not getting through. The poll doesn't provide a vote estimation for the next Catalan elections because, according to CEO' s chief Jordi Arguelaguer, the break down of CiU and the reconfiguration in the left make it impossible. ICV and Podemos agreed recently running a join list in September (Joan Coscubiela, ICV deputy in the Spanish Congress, will stand as pre-candidate), as well Pablo Iglesias stated the alliance will work in the next general election.

Link to CEO poll (there's an abstract in English):

http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/pages/home/fitxaEstudi.html?colId=5468&lastTitle=Bar%F2metre+d%27Opini%F3+Pol%EDtica+%28BOP%29.+2a+onada+2015

CEO released the "direct vote intention", that is raw polling data without further elaboration. In the Catalan elections CiU and ERC are tied at 13.3%, while Podemos comes third at 10.8%. As for the general election, Podemos comes first (18.1%) followed by ERC (13%), PSC (11%) and CiU (10.8%). The poll doesn't ask for CDC and UDC separately, nor asks for the join list between Podemos and ICV.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Btw Velasco, has the indirect portion of the Senate been elected by the regions yet? Or is that done at some later date?

PP doing fairly well in current polls. A hypothetical PP-C coalition could have a healthy majority. Greek effect?

[Velasco]

Btw Velasco, has the indirect portion of the Senate been elected by the regions yet? Or is that done at some later date?

The Spanish Senate is an irrelevant legislative body and I usually don't pay too much attention. I checked the list of members returned by regions in the Spanish Senate website. The new Andalusian Parliament (elected in March 2015) has appointed 9 senators (PSOE 5, PP 3, Podemos 1)  Apparently the regions which held elections in May haven't elected their representatives. Probably they will be appointed in the next session of the respective regional legislatures, beginning in September.

PP doing fairly well in current polls. A hypothetical PP-C coalition could have a healthy majority. Greek effect?

I haven't been following last polls in detail. Which ones predict a PP-C's majority?

On average, I think the trend doesn't point to a result like that. I'm not sure if Greece will have an impact in the Spanish election (I tend to think that it'd be very limited, in any case).

The Wikipedia poll summary as of July 2015 says that PP is approx. at 26%, PSOE 23%, Podemos 20% and C's around 13%. The Electograph "poll of polls" gives the following result: PP 27.6%, PSOE 24.4%, Podemos 18.9%, C's 12.5%, IU 3.6%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Spanish_general_election,_2015#National

http://www.electograph.com/p/electograph-poll-of-polls.html

More important will be the repercussion of the next parliamentary election in Catalonia.

CDC (the Artur Mas party), ERC, pro-independence associations and elements of the 'civil society' will assemble a joint list. In case the joint independence list wins the election, which is very likely, the different parties and associations are committed to proclaim independence unilaterally within a period of 6 or 8 months. Probably that declaration of independence will have the support of the left-wing CUP in the next Parliament of Catalonia. The top candidate will be Raül Romeva, formerly in ICV and MEP until 2014. The former spokeswoman of the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) Carme Forcadell and Muriel Casals ( from Òmnium Cultural) will be the numbers two and three of that list. Artur Mas will be placed in the fourth place, but he's actually the candidate to be the head of the government. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras will be the number five.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/15/inenglish/1436951774_704766.html

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Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy stated that "there will be no Catalan independence"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/16/inenglish/1437061423_262494.html

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At this point everything points to the continuation of the paralysis until the next Spanish election takes place and a new administration takes office earlier next year.

You can check last polls for the Catalan elections here:

http://www.electograph.com/search/label/A_Cat

Feedback/La Vanguardia (July 2015)

CDC 22% (32-34 seats), Catalunya, sí que es pot (CSP= Podemos+ ICV+EUiA) 16.5% (20-22), C's 16% (22), ERC 15% (22), PSC 9.6% (13), PP 7.3% (9-10), CUP 7% (9-10), UDC 4.2% (3-6).

*A joint list including all pro-independence forces would get 46.7%, according to Feedback. However, that assumption is not realistic because the CUP will run in its own.

GAPS / Òmnium Cultural (July 2015)

Joint list (CDC-ERC) 32% (52 seats), CSP 20% (26), C's 16% (20), PSC 9% (12), PP 9% (12), CUP 8% (10), UDC 4% (3).

GESOP/El Periódico (June 2015)

CDC 22.4% (33-35 seats), Podemos+ICV+EUiA+Procés Constituent 22.4% (30-31), C's 14.9% (19-20), ERC 12.9% (19-20), CUP 8.2% (11-12), PSC 7% (8-9), PP 6% (6-7), UDC 4.6% (6-7)

[FredLindq]

Could somone update me on the election of new regional presidents!

[Velasco]

OK, let's try a brief summary of the new regional governments.

Aragon:: Javier Lambán (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of Podemos, the Aragonese Union (CHA) and IU, totalling 35 votes. PP, C's and the Aragonese Party (PAR) voted against the investiture, totalling 32 votes. Notably, C's spokeswoman Susana Gaspar deemed the deal between leftist forces in the regional legislature as a "pact with the Devil" The negotiation was difficult because Pablo Echenique (Podemos) felt vindicated to be premier, given that the purple party came only 1% behind the socialists in the regional election. Lambán heads a minority government which has 9 ministers (8 from PSOE and 1 from CHA). The new administration needs the support of Podemos and IU to pass legislation.

Asturias: Javier Fernández (PSOE), incumbent since 2012, is seeking to continue as regional premier. A deal between PSOE and Podemos was the only option for Fernández to get a majority in the investiture. However, the socialists and the purple party have a poor relationship in the region. Podemos rejected to vote for the socialist candidate for Mayor of Gijón, because of his involvement in suspected irregularities in the management of the port of El Musel. Gijón is the most populated city in the region; the mayoralty was retained by the right-wing regionalist FAC in minority. PSOE reached an agreement with the IU regional branch led by Gaspar Llamazares, which was approved by the IU membership today. The deal doesn't imply a coalition government; both parties agreed on specific measures (electoral reform, transparency law and a commission of inquiry on El Musel). PSOE (14) and IU (5) fall short from a majority in the 45 member regional legislature. Javier Fernández could be elected premier in a second vote, providing that Podemos (9) and C's (3) abstain. Rival candidate Mercedes Fernández (PP) only counts with the support of her party (11 seats) and Foro Asturias (FAC, 3 seats). The first investiture vote will take place this upcoming week.  

Balearic Islands: Francina Armengol (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of Podemos and MÉS, a left-wing catalanist party. Podemos didn't join the regional government, which is comprised by 11 members from PSOE and MÉS. PSOE holds the premiership and gets 6 cabinet members, while MÉS gets 4 cabinet members including Deputy Premier Biel Barceló.

Canary Islands: Fernando Clavijo (CC) heads a coalition government with PSOE. CC gets the premiership and 6 cabinet members; PSOE gets 4 cabinet members including Deputy Premier Patricia Hernández. PSOE holds the presidency of the regional parliament.

Cantabria: Miguel Ángel Revilla of the Cantabria Regionalist Party (PRC) was elected Premier with the support of PSOE and the abstention of Podemos. The regional coalition government has 9 members: PRC gets the premiership and 4 cabinet members, PSOE gets 4 cabinet members including Deputy Premier Eva Díaz Tezanos.

Castile and León: Juan Vicente Herrera (PP) was reelected Premier in a second vote with the support of his party (42 seats) and the abstention of C's (5). PSOE (25), Podemos (10), IU (1) and the León regionalist UPyL (1) voted against the investiture. PP will govern in minority, trying to reach agreements on specific measures with C's in order to pass legislation.

Castile-La Mancha: Emiliano García-Page (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of his party (15 seats) and Podemos (2). PP (16) voted against the investiture. García-Page, a former Mayor of Toledo, will govern in minority replacing María Dolores de Cospedal, the powerful and controversial woman who remains as secretary general of PP.

Extremadura: Guillermo Fernández Vara (PSOE) was proclaimed Premier with the support of his party (30 seats) and Podemos (6). PP (28) and C's (1) abstained. In the investiture, the Podemos spokesman said that Fernández Vara's discourse was increasingly resembling theirs, stating that Podemos will support the new minority government as long as it's committed with "the defence of the civil rights against the austerity policy" of the Spanish government. Fernández Vara promised that Extremadura will be the first region "free of evictions".

Madrid: Cristina Cifuentes (PP) was elected Premier on June 24 with the support of her party (48 seats) and C's (17). PSOE (37) and Podemos (27) voted against. Cifuentes will govern in minority and C's spokesman Ignacio Aguado warned her that they will be vigilant on the implementation of the 76 point agreement signed between the blue and the orange parties.

Murcia: Pedro Antonio Sánchez (PP) was elected Premier with the support of his party (26 seats) and C's (4). PSOE (13) and Podemos (6) voted against the investiture. PP and C's reached an agreement similar to that in Madrid. The newly elected premier has to face a lawsuit on alleged faults including prevarication, embezzlemen of public funds, fraud against administration and falsification of public documents. Mr Sánchez promised to resign in case he's formally charged.

Navarre: Uxue Barkos (Geroa Bai, independent) will be elected Premier in the investiture session that will take place tomorrow morning. Geroa Bai, EH Bildu, Podemos and IU signed a deal on past Friday. According to the signatories, the agreement has a "historical value" and "lays the foundations for change". The new government will have 2 deputy premiers: Manu Ayerdi (Geroa Bai, PNV) will assume the management of economic policies and independent Miguel Laparra, an university professor, will be in charge of social policies. The government will have 9 cabinet members, chosen by Mrs Barkos between the candidates proposed by the different parties. The appointment of María José Beaumont (EH Bildu) with a portfolio including Interior has created controversy, given past links between the abertzale left and ETA.

The Navarrese mess, probably one of my last contributions here:



La Rioja: Ignacio Ceniceros (PP) failed to pass the first investiture vote which took place on July 1, but was elected in a second vote on July 3 without a majority. Ceniceros was supported by his party, while C's regional parliamentarians abstained.

Valencia: Ximo Puig (PSOE) was elected Premier with the support of Compromís and Podemos and took office on June 27. The new regional government is comprised by the Premier, a Deputy Premier (Mónica Oltra, Compromís) and 8 cabinet members (3 PSOE, 3 Compromís and 2 independents).

[RodPresident]

Any chance if CSP gets a good second place or first of getting to form government with support of PSC, CUP and C's?

[SNJ1985]

I have changed the thread title, since the local and regional elections of May 24th have obviously already taken place.

[Velasco]

Any chance if CSP gets a good second place or first of getting to form government with support of PSC, CUP and C's?

It's totally impossible to see the CUP siding with C's and PSC. Another question would be that CSP had chances of placing first as BComú did in Barcelona, but that is not going to happen. The joint CDC-ERC list*, that is going to be called "Juntos por el Sí" (something like "Together for Yes"), is going to win in all likelihood and Artur Mas will remain as premier, but probably the sovereignist ticket will fall short from a majority. However, there will be a likely pro-independence majority in the next Catalan Parliament adding the CUP. In order to give some legitimacy to an unilateral declaration of independence, it would be important that the joint list and the CUP add a majority of the popular vote (and maybe they will fall short). The CSP is in favour of a referendum, as well the UDC, but I don't see the left and the party of Duran i Lleida supporting the projects of Artur Mas. C's, PSC and PP are against to call a referendum.

*Former FC Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola will run in the "Together" ticket placing in the last place of the list:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/20/inenglish/1437408521_513427.html

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I have changed the thread title, since the local and regional elections of May 24th have obviously already taken place.

OK, well done. You will have to decide where to place the Catalan elections scheduled in September: here or in a single thread.

[SNJ1985]

I changed the title again. When the Catalan elections are over, then I'll change it so it mentions the general election.

[politicus]

Maybe you could just call it Spanish Elections and Politics like the general discussion threads about German, Italian, Dutch, Austrian and Swiss politics, that way you wouldn't have to update the thread title.

[SNJ1985]

Yeah, that's a good idea.

[Velasco]

More fun from Catalonia.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/21/inenglish/1437471078_289683.html

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Steps toward the declaration of independence:

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[politicus]

What would the Spanish government do if Catalonia actually issued a UDI?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Is there any possibility that govt/His Majesty King of Spain will use army to secure Catalonia and beat up potential traitors?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do the ERC and CUP want a greater Catalonia (with the Balearics, Valencia etc) or do they recognise that as impronable.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

The best solution is to divide Spain into Aragon and Castile in permanent personal union.

[Velasco]

What would the Spanish government do if Catalonia actually issued a UDI?

Probably the central government will refer resolutions adopted by the Parliament of Catalonia, in order to implement the "road map" to independence, to the Spanish Constitutional Court. This has been the modus operandi of the Rajoy administration to date. But the leaders of the secessionist bloc now threaten with issuing the UDI immediately, in case the Spanish government puts obstacles. At this point, we enter into uncharted territory. Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution says that if a region is not abiding its obligations under the existing legal framework, the central government can take the "necessary measures" to enforce said obligations. Such "measures" would be implemented  after lodging a complaint to the regional premier and, in case the request is not granted, they need the approval of the Spanish Senate. The problem is that article has never been implemented and "measures" are not developed in the text. Jurists don't coincide in the interpretation of the article, but say the Spanish government should only intervene as a last resort and advocate for the principle of minimum intervention. The consequences of a suspension of the regional autonomy, for instance, are totally unpredictable. A professor of constitutional law says that implementing article 155 would be the end of the current model of regional autonomy.

Do the ERC and CUP want a greater Catalonia (with the Balearics, Valencia etc) or do they recognise that as impronable.

On paper, both want the Països Catalans ("Catalan Countries"). In practice, it's possible that they see the Greater Catalonia as a long term project. It's something like Euskal Herria (the union of Euskadi, Navarre and the French Basque Country).

The best solution is to divide Spain into Aragon and Castile in permanent personal union.

Spain was a personal union of crowns under the Hapsburgs. It was a very disfunctional model. By 1640 revolts erupted in Portugal, Andalusia and Catalonia. Catalans call the uprising against the minister of Felipe IV (the Count-Duke of Olivares) Guerra dels Segadors and the Catalan anthem refers to those events. For sure Felipe VI doesn't want a repetition of history, so I don't think he's going to send the Army.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_Revolt

Btw, Felipe VI and Artur Mas met recently. According to Miguel Ángel Revilla, premier of Cantabria, the King told him that the attitude of Artur Mas is "irreconcilable". No room for negotiation, apparently.   

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

That is pretty sad that rampaging nationalism is going to win again.
Sorry for a little bit offtop but I was just curious if this is even possible for king to use army in case of rebellion.

[Velasco]

Sorry, but the king cannot use the army. He's the supreme commander of the armed forces, but Spain is a constitutional monarchy and that title is merely symbolic: the Spanish government holds the executive power. On the other hand, sending the army would be the surest way to lose Catalonia. After the revolt in the XVII century there was a complicated conflict involving France and several battles, but Catalonia returned to Spain basically through negotiation... except the Roussillon and part of the Cerdagne, a patch of the Catalan Countries which was lost to the French neighbours.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, I don't think Artur Mas will go the way of poor Lluis Companys

[Velasco]

There's an estimation for the Parliament of Catalonia released by Público.

Junts pel Sí (CDC+ERC) 39.2% 59 (-3)* seats

Catalunya Sí que es Pot (Podem+ICV+EUiA) 17% 23 (+10) seats

Ciutadans (C's) 15.7% 21 (+12) seats

PSC 7.6% 10 (-10) seats

CUP 7.2% 10 (+7) seats

PP 6.7% 9 (-10) seats

UDC 3.6% 3 (-6) seats

*Currently CDC 37, ERC 21 and DC 4. The latter (Democràcia Catalana: "Catalan Democracy") is a splinter of the UDC

The secessionist bloc (Junts pel Sí+CUP) adds 46.4% of the vote and 69 seats (majority 68). The anti-secessionist parties (C's, PSC and PP) add 30% of the vote and 40 seats. The "Third Way" parties (CSP, UDC) 20.6% and 26 seats.

In other news, the map of regional governments is already completed. Socialist Javier Fernández was elected premier of Asturias in a third vote. Uxue Barkos was proclaimed premier of Navarre.  

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Sorry, but the king cannot use the army. He's the supreme commander of the armed forces, but Spain is a constitutional monarchy and that title is merely symbolic: the Spanish government holds the executive power. On the other hand, sending the army would be the surest way to lose Catalonia. After the revolt in the XVII century there was a complicated conflict involving France and several battles, but Catalonia returned to Spain basically through negotiation... except the Roussillon and part of the Cerdagne, a patch of the Catalan Countries which was lost to the French neighbours.

Thanks for answer. I thought that at least in case of military king have anything to say.

[Velasco]

King Felipe VI spoke before a group of newly appointed judges in Barcelona, stating that respect for the law is "unavoidable" in a democratic regime. Premier Artur Mas attended the event, but he didn't get the hint.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/07/23/inenglish/1437659569_325845.html

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Raül Romeva, the top candidate of the "Together for Yes" ticket, states the agreement reached between CDC, ERC and civic associations didn't make explicit that Artur Mas will be the head of a "national concentration" government that proclaims the independence of Catalonia. CDC officials denied that claim; according to deputy premier Neus Munté everything is spoken and Mas will continue exercising a leading role in the secessionist process at the head of the government. 

The Guardia Civil arrested three members of the Sumarrocas, an important business family linked to the Jordi Pujol clan, this morning in Barcelona. They are charged with the payment of illegal commissions to the mayor of Torredembarra (a coastal town in Tarragona province) of the Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC). The judge is investigating offences against the public administration, organised criminal group and money laundering. Joaquín Sumarroca, the head of the Sumarroca clan, was co-founder of the CDC together with Jordi Pujol.