State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are there any interesting special elections tonight?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Results for tonight:

Florida Senate 31 (7 ET): http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/ElectionResults/default?Election=04/10/2018

Iowa Senate 25 (10 ET)

Hardin County: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTw24eE8uc3hEvsn3lBUeEPrNFsm0FANpr-1vx9D2T4AHcqO1TAghh3u0sICqpQU0rnrqoPJrfOaKGN/pubhtml

Story County: http://www.storycountyiowa.gov/index.aspx?NID=1287

Butler County: https://www.butlercoiowa.org/departments/elections/results

Grundy County: Not finding a page for this county. Any help is appreciated.

Add up the results from all counties to get the full result.

Grundy County: https://www.grundycounty.org/departments/auditor/election-results

[GeorgiaModerate]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

Limo never fails to make everyone laugh

He was amusing for a while, but wore it out a long time ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

Well, it looks like someone will be demoralized and humiliated.  But perhaps not the Democrats.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/991463217154154497

[GeorgiaModerate]

The next special election is in Texas House of Representatives District 13 on Saturday.

Do we have any numbers on that one?

I wouldn't expect much excitement here.  Per Ballotpedia, the Republican won 79-21 in 2016.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who's who?

Who's on first.

(I'll get my coat...)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/996563263788904449

[GeorgiaModerate]

They called the race for Teresa Gallegos on Kark.com, a branch of MSNBC. Is that a Dem pickup?

Seriously?  Trump won that district by something like 52 points!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't pop any champagne yet.  According to the Arkansas SoS, Gallegos trails 77%-23% with 14% in.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anybody know where I can find live results for MS HD 30 runoff today?

Maybe here, eventually: http://www.sos.ms.gov/Elections-Voting/Pages/2018-Special-Elections.aspx

But for now, the section under "May 29, 2018 Runoff Election" is blank.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Are there even any specials today? I thought only next week...

Yeah, I go by Ballotpedia's list, and there's nothing scheduled tonight. Nice break from doing projections before the long list of stuff next week.

There is a runoff in MS HD-30.  That's the only one I'm aware of.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Today there will be one election - Connecticut State House District 4. Polls close at 8 EST. Not seeing a results page just yet.

Non-Tuesday/Saturday elections are stupid.

It's a Tuesday election, but with very early poll opening and closing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In 2016, the Dems held this seat by 87 percent to 13 percent. Tonight, the two Dems outpolled the republican by 94 percent to 5 percent. That's a 15 point swing (+74 to +89) to the Democrats.

That's impressive, but I wouldn't read much into a low turnout special in a district so heavily dominated by one party.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, I for one appreciated the link.  Arthur now up 63-37 with 3/61 precincts in.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If the total vote in is also close to 34%, then Arthur needs only about 45% of the remaining vote to win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

44% of precincts in and Arthur continues to hold a 61-39 lead.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah, it's over.  Arthur only needs about 35% of the remaining vote to win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's been a noticeable lack of comment on this result from certain quarters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Andrew is conspicuously quiet

Don't invoke him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I was expected #thepersistence to tweet how they "got in the runoff with 30% of the vote" and how this showed how strong Reps are, but he didnt even mention it.

James Woods
‏Verified account @RealJamesWoods

#Republicans must vote in droves to have a fighting chance. Remember: you’re not only facing #Democrats. You’re fighting dead voters, illegal alien voters, and repeat voters. That is, if you can even get to the polls past Black Panthers intimidating you.

How about repeat votes from dead illegal aliens?  That's more efficient.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Limo was right and y'all were wrong, deal with it.

Wow. He just kept picking the Republican until one finally won. Wow. So impressive.

Country saying: even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There will be a new special in GA HD-28 on December 4 to replace a previous result that has been invalidated due to many voters receiving the wrong ballots (more than enough to overcome the razor-thin margin in the original election).  This is a Republican primary, but effectively a general election because no Democrat was running in this very conservative district.

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/redo-georgia-house-election-ordered-after-voters-cast-wrong-ballots/P3r7UmYVpsOAZMQoBin9vI/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Schedule for the rest of the year:

November 27 - Mississippi Runoffs (House 31 & 85)
December 4 - GA HD 28 (R v. R) and SOS
December 8 - LA HD 90 (R v. R) and SOS
December 11 - TX SD 6
December 18 - VA HD 24

Georgia also has a statewide PSC runoff in addition to SoS.

[GeorgiaModerate]

These are two safe R/D seats right?

GA is Safe R, TX is Safe D - but Dems need a respectable performance in the GA one after last week's disaster.

How would you define respectable here?