Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem for Biden, he is running into the same problem as Trump with Covid, that eventhough you can give out stimulus checks and funding for schools, but as long as you have Covid the Economy won't be fully open.  Bars and Stadiums still remain closed for forseeable future and Schools have remote learning, especially Universities

We don't know when Universities or Stadiums or Bars are gonna be open, but the athletes don't deserve our money like before Covid, on memorabilia, it's Chinese cheap made

They only spend it on themselves

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We should only make approvals for the  for the blue wall with the exception of NC because D's aren't winning 55 or more seats with or without NC and GA as wave insurance seats for 52 votes to bypass Sinema on Filibuster.

Rs have been living in 2016 too long they haven't cracked the blue wall for 5 yrs since 2016

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't know what 2022 will hold but boarder security is also vital to Immigration reform, Biden stopped building the wall but he has plenty of time to restart the wall, D's can certainly win without the boarder fense but they will be in even better position if Biden restarts the wall as AZ, NV and NH are keys to holding on Majority.  WC and AA supports a boarder wall except for Latinos. We haven't gotten to Immigration reform yet

We also don't know how the Economy is gonna be next summer, hopefully it will be in Recovery

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know that the EC map is gonna go thru WI and PA, I don't even look at the polls anymore

51/49 Senate and narrow House Majority while GA and NC are battlegrounds, if the Election were held without a strong recovery

It's no use making hack maps, the polls were wrong last time and FL isn't really in play since DeSantis is gonna be Reelected with Rubio with a 57% Approvals

As I said before, Biden handicapped himself by stoppage of the wall, it can affect our wave insurance seats and we don't want to lose NC, which is still a battleground state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as Biden is Prez, Rs aren't cracking the blue wall in 2020/2022/2024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson and Pat Tommey seat are gone D's have now a 2)3 chance of flipping WI and Pa and winning GA for a 52/48 Senate and narrowly holding onto Congress


NC its a 1/3 chance, but I am not a doomer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't need Mccarthy as Leader, as I said on another thread, given they just voted down the minimum wage 57 No votes, they aren't gonna solve the Covid crisis, they want to give millionaires tax cuts, if Rs were gonna solve the Covid crisis, Trump would still be Prez and even D's are bearish on our chances due to it being a Midterm

1962/1998/2002/2022 Prez Approvals are 50 PERCENT we net gain seats, not lose seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news Blunt retired, he was leading 50/40 against Sifton, it's wave insurance, but we have a better chance at winning MO than before.

Sifton, and Jackson can appeal just like Jon Ossoff be youthful and appeal to WC females and bring out the AA base

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MANCHIN THINKS HE IS BYRD BUT BYRD BECAME A SECULARIST AFTER 2002 AFTER HE VOTED AGAINST IRAQ W


MANCHIN IS GONNA LOSE TO ANY GENERIC R and thank Goodness he does, we enough wave insurance seats in 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everytime there is a NH poll, Rs which is their only pickup assumes it's an R year, typical for a party that have lost seats in every Election cycle since the peaked in 2016, 2018 33/House seats and 2020/ 4 Senate seats

Maggie Hassan is the underdog this yr, not in 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden has done wonders getting everyone vaccinated, I just got my shot, it's only a matter of time of full reopening

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I admit that these approvals are oversampling D's, the Election isn't until next year and these polls suggest a landslide that not have happened yet for D's in 2022.

But, NC numbers look positive if we get NC and GA, we hold onto House and bypass Sinema on the Fillibuster

FL isn't happening for D's since DeSantis and Rubio will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we still looking at Traggie polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A lot of these Biden approval polls are oversampling democrats, the CNN poll that had him at 51% approve had a D+6 sample, no election since 2012 has had an electorate that democratic, the Marist poll that has Biden at 49% approval has a D+7 sample, 34% democratic, 27% Republican, for multiple cycles now we just see pollsters continually oversampling democrats relative to what the exit polls show, is Biden really at 49% approval, with a D+7 sample he might be, in reality he is likely lower.

the NPR poll has Biden's disapproval at nearly 20% among Blacks and only 51/43 among Latinos. That seems... very unlikely

Sub group cross tabs in polls are always weird, not sure what can be done about it.

So it's best to take a poll at face value and not try to unscramble it's crosstabs.

Edit: Admittedly, I'm very guilty of doing this.

Party ID and education are 2 things that do need to reflect the electorate though just like the number of men vs women in a poll or the entire poll gets thrown off.

While this is true for education, party ID is fluid; attempting to weight on it is fraught with problems.  Party ID is not a demographic characteristic.

Party ID at the national level is pretty stable, 2016 was D+3, 2018 was D+4, 2020 was D+1, polls that vary to much from that need to be looked at with scrutiny.

The Election is ,20 mnths away

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we looking so hard at polls 20 mnths before an Election just like Rs believe Sununu soft six pt lead in a state NH is gonna last 20 months, ha

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is blocking Biden agenda, the voters didn't put her in office again to Obstruct

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is blocking Biden agenda, the voters didn't put her in office again to Obstruct

Iowa voters expected her to well serve the Trump Presidency, according to their 2020 vote. 

Yeah, but Ernst ran on the popularity of Kim Reynolds and she has restricted voting rights in the state, that isn't bipartisanship

That's why voters are rebelling against Grassley I'm the polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McCarthy just went on natl TV like Ron Johnson did and commuted s gaffe and said the stimulus was a poidon pill. That isnt gonna bode well in Cali, for Rs in recall, since he is from Bakersfield and Newsom passed a 600 Stimulus and will hurt Rs in Orange COUNTY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are still paying attention to polls 20 mnths befote an Election, Biden isn't 40 Percent Trump

Trump was upside down 43 47 not 47/43

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The 2009 strategy is failing, blocking everything, and Mcconnell saying if you don't give me what I want, keeping the Filibuster, I will block with unanimous consent turning on the lights.

The Rs are afraid of a real Filibuster where they have to stand the length of the filibuster, but Strom Thurmond was an R

Rand Paul silly comment about AA dropping out of school to get a minimium wage job, of course he can say that, the Rs are rich. Not, true, because the teens are living with mom and they are gonna have to go to school, even WIA school or Community schooling, due to Housing isn't keeping up with wage inflation

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Ds Majority is far shakier but we are living in a Covid Environment, the turnout was 33% in 2010/2014, minorities took things for granted, in a Covid Environment VBM including the Cali recall, they aren't gonns take things for granted and turnout may equal to Prez race in a VBM not same day voting

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not over, but Rs aren't winning 15/30 seats and both Houses of Congress or the 2024 Prez Election with numbers like these even if the Pandemic is still with us, which in all likelihood it will be, since Govt won't open up Govt jobs to public. All they care about is campaign donations, not everyone fits in with private companies and there is a cronic homeless population that has TB already

We need a Federal Jobs Guarentee, that was talked about in Primary but never sees the light of day or Green jobs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once we get rid of Fillibuster we can do all sorts of things, the Filibuster is standing in way of reforming Housing as well. We must end the merit based Section 8 voucher system that Mcconnell and Boehner has set up to give it to Latinos for a Lifetime

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna keep both Houses of Congress

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news for Jackson in NC