UK AV Referendum Poll

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZwOrySIIeY

New campaign ad from the No camp. I love how this is more or less what happened when my politics teacher first explained AV to my class.

If I were on the fence and I saw that ad, it would make me more likely to vote "yes," since its main message appears to be "we think you're stupid."

The entire anti-AV campaign is based on that premise.

Not sure if the other side is better though - we'd need a pro-AV refudiate clone onsite to overexpose me to its arguments.

AV aren't really giving people a reason to vote yes accept "AV will almost, maybe, possibly, make a future Conservative or Labour government probably, almost, maybe decide to change their opinion of PR and try to maybe impliment it".

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And now, a referendum broadcast from Nick Clegg Alan B'Stard.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-obZ9OG_XKA

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Also, I wish the Yes camp would stop saying the Tories use Av for their leadership contests. They don't. They do multi-round voting...

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You know who you're voting for in a second round. You don't with a second preference. I guess that's the best way I can explain it.

It's a bit like saying France uses AV because they have 2 round, when it's clearly not AV.

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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3475 -

So, only Angus-Reid still has Yes ahead, right? And we know their record...

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First time that NI has been polled on the referendum as well, btw.

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Slow news day:

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Just seen an article about Huhne telling the NO camp to stop telling lies. I thought it was YES who was telling voters that AV means all MPs will have 50%+ and get rid of safe seats... seems a bit questionable as well, to be fair.

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Antony Green has been blogging quite a bit lately about the referendum. He seems to be quite perturbed by claims from some of the No advocates.

Seems like a fairly impressive demolition of most of the "No" campaign's arguments.

Well, except the "I hate Nick Clegg and want to give him a bloody nose" type...

That the argument I was hoping the No campaign would put great emphasis on. How are Clegg's approvals doing btw?

Mori:
Dave - 44/47
Ed - 41/40
Clegg - 35/53

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Aprilpolmontopline.PDF

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Just seen an article about Huhne telling the NO camp to stop telling lies. I thought it was YES who was telling voters that AV means all MPs will have 50%+ and get rid of safe seats... seems a bit questionable as well, to be fair.

The No leaflet also says, and this is a verbatim quote, "The only vote that would count under AV would be Nick Clegg's".

Not really a lie. It's more just big rhetoric.

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Sigh. Bye bye to electoral reform...

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Interesting article at
http://gowers.wordpress.com/2011/04/20/is-av-better-than-fptp/

"Nick Clegg is toast already. Vote yes to spite David Cameron and George Osbourne!"

Probably a good thing for the Tories a lot of left-wingers like Change 08 are willing to give up electoral reform that would  probably help their party in the long run just to emberass someone who's political life is already over.

I genuinely don't like AV though. I honestly don't see how it's better than FPTP. It's less proportional and it increases government majorities, this is exactly the opposite of what we should be having. I also don't see how a No vote would stop PR in the future anymore than a Yes vote would. Let's say the referndum results in a 'yes', what future Tory or Labour administration is going to give the people PR? They've put it off for decades and decades, they certainly wouldn't change their mind on PR now whether it's a Yes or a No.

Although, of course, hurting Clegg further's a bonus. This referendum, from when it was first discussed, was never going to be an honest debate of AV against FPTP.

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The assumption that the Alliance would've all preferenced Labour is stupid. The Liberals are Tory inclined, the SDP (the "Democrats" of today) were Labour inclined. To put it simplistically.

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Clegg brands NO as a "nasty, right wing clique." I'm sure he'd know a thing or two about right wing cliques.

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Huhne posturing about resignation about the whole £250 million election machine claim.

...Wouldn't do the same about universities or the NHS? I guess that's the LibDem attitude all over.

Any resignation would probably be so he could challenge Clegg anyway.

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Clegg brands NO as a "nasty, right wing clique." I'm sure he'd know a thing or two about right wing cliques.

He does and he's right.

John Prescott would have a stroke if he read that.

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As the nation moves into Royal Wedding fever, i'm assuming that most campaigning for the referendum is a bit moot now, so the new "Harm Cameron/Osbourne" approach of the Yes camp and Mandy's intervention is really too late... Competition for news space will be too fierce and the Tory media are hardly gonna be scrambling to give Yes-ers a big voice (no one reads The Guardian).

Referendum? What referendum?

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A third poll showing No leading by 58 to 42:
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/43873/conservative-voters-propel-no-to-new-heights-in-british-referendum/

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Given that the Tory leadership would have murdered their own children to form a government (slight exaggeration) he could have held out for a bit better than a referendum on a voting system that he doesn't like anyway, but the lure of getting into one of those plush ministerial cares as soon as possible was what it was. I suspect that the disappointment of the election itself may have been a factor in that, but given the LibDem incompetence during that, it's hardly an excuse.

Doesn't the story go that the Liberals tried to hold out but that mean old Scotsman resigned before he was supposed to, so negotiations fell through?

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Nasty and partisan, but will the LibDems call it Goebbels-like?



Also, quite a silly poster. Doesn't even mention AV... could just be a normal "Vote Labour" poster, really.

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No extends their lead with YouGov to 59-41.
http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-260411.pdf

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Are the results going to be declared county-by-county?

I think so.

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Made all the more damning by the fact that Angus Reid were one of the last to show AV in the lead when other pollsters were signalling NO gaining the upper hand.

Interesting to see various figures come out in recent days making direct appeals to Labour voters - to vote for their partisan interest. I've watched in amazement as Clegg and his merry Orange Bookers have done their utmost to extinguish any good feeling from Labour voters - the very same voters their AV hinges upon if it's to pass. Of course when AV's future started looking bleak he dismissed it as being not all that important to him, but that's been roundly disproven as he and his colleagues battle in an unprecedented scale during this coalition for it (something that again has registered terribly to Labour voters - a battle for self-interest but not his voters or the welfare state).

Some might blame YestoAV, but I think Clegg's played a shocking hand since May last year and I think it's now simply a case of how much his miserable little compromise loses by.

Nick Clegg is an idiot, I think we can all agree there. That doesn't say anything about AV, though.

AV would be inevitably better for him, as a politician. There we go.

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The Thick of It displaying the mentality of the Yes and No campaigns.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2HQaF_vfes