UK AV Referendum Poll

[Leftbehind]

Did I overhear someone offering out custard creams?

[afleitch]

Anyone checked out the Sky News AV calculator yet?

[Leftbehind]

Aye, seems a bit convoluted and resource heavy; gave up.

[Insula Dei]

Anyone checked out the Sky News AV calculator yet?

I must be doing something wrong, because on the not entirely unreasonable premisses that 2/3rds of Liberal Democrats would second preference the Conservatives and that about half of the conservative voters would return that favour; I get results like this:

LAB: 53% and 285 seats
CON: 31% and 307 seats
LD: 6% and 31 seats

I know that this isn't meant to predict a 2015 election, but just adjusting the 2010 numbers a bitshould result in reasonable results, no?

Then again, maybe this is what would happen, no way of knowing, really.

[Harry Hayfield]

Anyone checked out the Sky News AV calculator yet?

1992: FPTP: Con 336 Lab 271 Lib Dem 20 Others 24 (Con maj 21) AV: Con 326 (-10) Lab 271 (unchanged) Lib Dem 33 (+13) Others 21 (-3) (Con maj 1)
1997: FPTP: Lab 419 Con 165 Lib Dem 46 Others 29 (Lab maj 179) AV: Lab 446 (+27) Con 102 (-63) Lib Dem 83 (+37) Others 28 (-1) (Lab maj 232)
2001: FPTP: Lab 413 Con 166 Lib Dem 52 Others 28 (Lab maj 166) AV: Lab 418 (+5) Con 152 (-14) Lib Dem 64 (+12) Others 25 (-3) (Lab maj 177)
2005: FPTP: Lab 356 Con 198 Lib Dem 62 Others 30 (Lab maj 66) AV: Lab 373 (+17) Con 174 (-22) Lib Dem 72 (+10) Others 27 (-3) (Lab maj 100)
2010: FPTP: Con 307 Lab 258 Lib Dem 57 Others 28 (Con short by 19) AV: Con 275 (-32) Lab 271 (+13) Lib Dem 78 (+21) Others 26 (-2) (Con short by 51)

[Leftbehind]

Given that Yougov have run a few polls on how people would vote, with this one showing how each individual party's voters would preference*, if anyone can get their head around how to input that into the AV calculator, you could predict 2011's.
 
*I realise it's a one-off poll with small samples when broken down to party preference and thus subject to wide variation, but when taken with a pinch of salt it'll do.

Oh and Yougov showing a 16 point lead for No tonight.

[bgwah]

What a shame.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Spotted on the interwebs...

[Meeker]

The No side is running one of the most intellectually dishonest campaigns I've ever seen on voting reform. Very unfortunate that folks are falling for it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The No side is running one of the most intellectually dishonest campaigns I've ever seen on voting reform.

The Yes side is only being slightly less dishonest.

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They aren't really. It's more that most people don't care about electoral reform. The whole campaign has operated in this ridiculous bubble; very important to the chattering classes but utterly irrelevant to ordinary people.

[Franzl]

What a shame.

[Meeker]

Very unfortunate that folks are falling for it.

They aren't really. It's more that most people don't care about electoral reform. The whole campaign has operated in this ridiculous bubble; very important to the chattering classes but utterly irrelevant to ordinary people.

Then why is No now leading in the polling when they weren't before?

[Franzl]

Don't know what's been happening in this case very well, but I think if people are uninformed and uninterested, they tend to vote against change in practically all referenda.

[Serenity Now]

The No side is running one of the most intellectually dishonest campaigns I've ever seen on voting reform.

The Yes side is only being slightly less dishonest.

This is particularly ridiculous: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/av/bnps-opposition-to-av-exploited-by-yes-campaigners-2260914.html?action=Popup

LOL:


Still think the 'No' side have been a bit worse. Both have fought rubbish campaigns. Not that either will effect whatever I eventually decide.

[Јas]

Antony Green has been blogging quite a bit lately about the referendum. He seems to be quite perturbed by claims from some of the No advocates.

[You kip if you want to...]

Just seen an article about Huhne telling the NO camp to stop telling lies. I thought it was YES who was telling voters that AV means all MPs will have 50%+ and get rid of safe seats... seems a bit questionable as well, to be fair.

[Meeker]

Don't know what's been happening in this case very well, but I think if people are uninformed and uninterested, they tend to vote against change in practically all referenda.

Sure, but that still doesn't explain why Yes used to be leading and now isn't. If what you and Al are suggesting is the sole reason for No's lead then the No side should've always been ahead.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, no, because supporters of the change are more motivated (which is why their die-hards are not-so-secretly praying for a low turnout). That and, if we're just looking at ICM, many of their early leads were no such thing: in December they showed Yes 36, No 30 and the rest undecided. Which is as good as trailing for obvious reasons. I doubt more than about three people have been converted to voting No because of the No campaign's absurd adverts. More important to the likely defeat (if that recent poll be right) of the Yes campaign has been the fact that no more than about three people will have been convinced to vote for change based on the Yes campaigns almost equally absurd adverts. They could have put together a fairly simple and logical case for changing the electoral system, but instead they blew it (or seem to have done) with worthless pseudo-utopian idiocy.

[minionofmidas]

Sigged.

[YL]

Antony Green has been blogging quite a bit lately about the referendum. He seems to be quite perturbed by claims from some of the No advocates.

Seems like a fairly impressive demolition of most of the "No" campaign's arguments.

Well, except the "I hate Nick Clegg and want to give him a bloody nose" type...

[redcommander]

Antony Green has been blogging quite a bit lately about the referendum. He seems to be quite perturbed by claims from some of the No advocates.

Seems like a fairly impressive demolition of most of the "No" campaign's arguments.

Well, except the "I hate Nick Clegg and want to give him a bloody nose" type...

That's the argument I was hoping the No campaign would put great emphasis on. How are Clegg's approvals doing btw?

[Phony Moderate]

I'm currently predicting a 52%-48% victory for No.

[minionofmidas]

Why so tight? Turnout differential with the Scottish and NI elections might help yes a bit compared to the polling, but really this thing ought to be over.

[You kip if you want to...]

Antony Green has been blogging quite a bit lately about the referendum. He seems to be quite perturbed by claims from some of the No advocates.

Seems like a fairly impressive demolition of most of the "No" campaign's arguments.

Well, except the "I hate Nick Clegg and want to give him a bloody nose" type...

That the argument I was hoping the No campaign would put great emphasis on. How are Clegg's approvals doing btw?

Mori:
Dave - 44/47
Ed - 41/40
Clegg - 35/53

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/Aprilpolmontopline.PDF

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

why is No now leading in the polling when they weren't before?

The default action for most people when presented with a choice they don't really care about is to stick with the status quo rather than face the risk of change producing something worse.  Unless you were a LibDem, there wasn't anything obviously bad about the voting system in the UK.  Why risk ending up with something worse?