2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[politicallefty]

The one thing about Lean R seats in Florida is that they are really stubbornly R.

Honestly, I was only just holding out hope that they don't try to recreate the Tampa-St. Petersburg district from the 2000s (i.e. Tampa crossing the bay and taking in the most Democratic precincts in St. Petersburg). If that's real, I'm seriously amazed at how clean the lines are in the Tampa Bay area (districts 12-16).

[politicallefty]

Yeah, I read that as though DeSantis is arguing that the current FL-05 is unconstitutional under the Florida Constitution. Read the press release in context.

[politicallefty]

The Senate map looks nicer around the Tampa area, but the House map actually makes more sense there. I think a nice compromise would give the House what it wants in the Tampa area and contracting FL-05 to the most Democratic parts of Jacksonville. I think the Senate map does a much better job in the Orlando area. If the House map fixes the Orlando area, it's a map I would vote for if I was in the Legislature.

[politicallefty]

Does anyone understand why DeSantis is doing what he is doing? None of it makes sense to me.

According to the above posts, it's DeSantis thumping his chest to be as Trumpy as possible.

If they fixed the Orlando area to be more like the Senate map, I'd say Democrats should take it. I'm not sure what differences there are between the two in terms of Miami-Dade, but the Cuban vote is tough to account for. As I said before, I like the look of the districts in the Tampa area in the Senate map, but I do think the House map makes more sense there. I have to imagine the Orlando configuration in the House map is the poison pill for Democrats.

[politicallefty]

Now Republicans are bracing for DeSantis to keep his promise and haul them back into a special session, worrying that he might hit the campaign trail and use his popularity and the bully pulpit to bring election-year pressure on those who bucked him.

“DeSantis has carved out his own lane in the GOP: the Voldemort lane,” said Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber, a Democrat who clashed with DeSantis over Covid lockdowns and who was involved in Democrats’ redistricting efforts in 2010.

Lol we have the Harry Potter Democrats.

Republicans in the Legislature say they were taken aback by DeSantis’ power play, with one describing him as being hyperfocused on redistricting compared to other issues.

“In meetings, he would just demand: ‘Pass my maps! My maps! My maps!’ He’s just bizarrely obsessed with this. He won’t let it go. He won’t listen to reason,” said a Republican who didn’t want to criticize DeSantis publicly.

It’s jarring to hear the Voldemort analogy, given that’s who DeSantis’s predecessor was often compared to.

I never saw him in Harry Potter movies, but I do remember seeing him on the cover of the Weekly World News when I was younger.

[politicallefty]

I'm actually a little confused about what's going on here. Does any settlement on restoring the old FL-05 obviate other challenges to the map? The way FL-13 and FL-14 are drawn is one of the more unquestionably hackish aspects of the map. On the other hand, the courts in Florida are pretty bad now, aren't they?

[politicallefty]

I would have thought that even now a Jacksonville-Gainesville district should be able to be safe D, don't think you have to go to Tallahassee

It wouldn't be a black-opportunity district in accordance with the VRA. I think the old district used to stretch from Jacksonville to Orlando (and included part of Gainesville). That was a Republican gerrymander without restriction from the Florida Constitution though. I think the Democratic Congresswoman who represented that district actually tried to challenge the redistricting amendment in federal court.