2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Oryxslayer]

Also, just repeating it for those who just poked in, there will be no actual mapping for a few months.  While the remedy is clearly and specifically prescribed, the pre-trial agreement set things up to save the state time and money - or time things better for DeSantis's campaign. Mapping is set up to be a immediate priority when the legislature next meets for a regular session in January,  and if nothing happens for a few months after that then the agreement stipulates a transfer of authority to the courts so as to enable the maps to be used for 2024.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, just repeating it for those who just poked in, there will be no actual mapping for a few months.  While the remedy is clearly and specifically prescribed, the pre-trial agreement set things up to save the state time and money - or time things better for DeSantis's campaign. Mapping is set up to be a immediate priority when the legislature next meets for a regular session in January,  and if nothing happens for a few months after that then the agreement stipulates a transfer of authority to the courts so as to enable the maps to be used for 2024.

So does that mean that FL Dems should gain a North Florida seat in Congress in the 2024 elections?

Pending if the State Supreme Court takes the case (we'll know shortly), and then if they are realllly conservative activists and decide the ammendment passed 13 years ago is somehow unconstitutional. Cause that's what would be needed to protect the current plan, rather than just saying that FL05 as proposed is uncompact and give a overriding order for the Duval district.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, just repeating it for those who just poked in, there will be no actual mapping for a few months.  While the remedy is clearly and specifically prescribed, the pre-trial agreement set things up to save the state time and money - or time things better for DeSantis's campaign. Mapping is set up to be a immediate priority when the legislature next meets for a regular session in January,  and if nothing happens for a few months after that then the agreement stipulates a transfer of authority to the courts so as to enable the maps to be used for 2024.

So does that mean that FL Dems should gain a North Florida seat in Congress in the 2024 elections?

Pending if the State Supreme Court takes the case (we'll know shortly), and then if they are realllly conservative activists and decide the ammendment passed 13 years ago is somehow unconstitutional. Cause that's what would be needed to protect the current plan, rather than just saying that FL05 as proposed is uncompact and give a overriding order for the Duval district.

So best case scenario for Dems is that FL Supreme Court doesn’t hear the case and agrees with this judges ruling or hears it and agrees so that Dems pick up another seat?

If you go back a few pages, you can read the livethread (only partially copied to this forum) from when the case recently had it's day in court. This will help to understand the arguments the state is and must advance on it's part to defend the case, if we end up in the Florida Supreme Court.

I have written previously on potential reasons why both the state and the plaintiffs had reasons to desire a reduction of the case to the single district and the single argument. However, it is no doubt that a stacked Judiciary was one of the potential reasons on the part of the plaintiffs. The case is now something very similar to a Section 2 VRA suit, which as we have seen, if logically advanced with data can sway traditionalist judges.

The planned DeSantis defense against North Florida was to argue against the Constitutionality of the Fair Districts Amendment by way of the VRA it was built off. This argument had merits up until Milligan affirmed the present constitutional order, and DeSantis's attempts to preempt a theorized ruling blew up in his face. However, the transformation of the case into a non-Diminishment argument leaves the state with unconstitutionality as the only clear way to maintain the current map. Which is why their lawyers threw everything at the wall to see if it stuck, and why GOP judicial activism remains their easiest out.

If however, the constitutionality of the established amendment is secure, then the state must prove they didn't illegally Diminish accessibility. Which again is difficult. Since this district basically is only concerning African American voters, voter cohesiveness is all but proven. The flow of the argument therefore became that FL-05 as drawn last decade was uncompact under Gingles and it is the only way to provide an access district solely in North Florida. This trail judge basically ignored that argument because the Florida Supreme Court ruled said district was compact and he was no activist looking to overrule them.

Obviously before the Supreme Court, that isn't a factor. However, because the reduction of the case was seemingly done under the the plaintiffs legal terms, they new this defense was the state's second out. The defense came prepared with evidence on how the rest of the map, and other maps, has numerous districts that cut more municipalities and respect less local lines than the 5th. They also pointed to the well-established body of legal precedent that shows Gingles compactness is more a precise tool used against things like the 2010 map's FL-05 or everything drawn in the 90s, not a blunt object for districts you don't like. But even if we accept the state's position on both of these points, the plaintiffs did not forget the now viable compact Duval-only alternative, something the state's lawyers tried to conveniently forget. More compact, still accessible under the functionality tests, just less desirable.

Which is why that unless the State Supreme Court is going to go activist and strike out the amendment, or is going to punt any potential responsibility on their part by deeming that the state 'auto-loses' since it has no standing to sue it's own constitution, it would be in the interests of saving everyone time and money to just not take up the appeal. The pre-trial agreement set the terms of engagement so favorably for the plaintiffs when it came to this district, that one suspects the state knew it had lost the 5th after Milligan. While they had to maintain the facade, the play is done, and there's no point repeating it unless something is to be significantly altered.

[Oryxslayer]

As expected, the appeal was made.  Let's see what happens to this offer. Both parties agreed in the settlement to any appeals requests being for speedy resolution,  so all court action ends before the regular session in January.  So the court response should be swift.

[Oryxslayer]

Do the Republicans have any type of rebuttal to the point that a D-leaning seat fully in Duval County can be easily drawn? Because that's not only obviously true it completely invalidates any "compactness" claims they're making.

Ig that even though a Duval based seat itself is compact, it forces another district to be uncompact? You either need a wrap-around suburban Jacksonville seat or a rural district that grabs Nassau County. Still a pretty weak argument though.

The state senate did propose a Duval only district in 2021, so obviously they thought it would work at some point.  I *think* the only real argument against it would be that african americans wouldn't have sufficient numbers to reliably control the Dem primary...?

But the current split into Safe R seats makes that moot anyway. Are they actually arguing that it's more compliant with the VRA or whatever to have two seats with black-dominated D primaries where the Democrat can't win than a D-leaning seat that's not as black-dominated?

No. The pretrial agreement had them concede legally that there is no district in north Florida where African American voters have any influence on the results.  Which nullifies many lanes of rebuttal and is part of how the plaintiffs seemingly were able to stack the deck in regards to FL05,  albeit in exchange for dropping Tampa and Orlando.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1703927930919715174?t=K-i18sn-vqBbHC2FYYlia...

Both parties asked in concordance with the pretrial agreement for the Courts of Appeals to streamline the case so that it would be the FLSC with sole ability to arbitrate any appeals. However,  the COA refused to do this, so in order to try and keep to the legal settle,  both parties ask for expedited schedule.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1706700943964680470?t=lA1iL1FoI5Ma2F7cf...

The federal Racial Gerrymandering case against the Florida congressional map is having it's day in the lower courts.  FYI,  they also reduced their case to just FL05 very recently,  so there sadly are now no cases against Tampa or Orlando right now IIRC.

[Oryxslayer]

Oral argument in the state court trial is going to be a spooky Halloween session. Scheduling has seemingly remained expedited, per the request of all parties who want this done before 2024.

[Oryxslayer]

The trial is starting.   The judges kinda seem hostile to the plaintiffs at first, but that's not surprising considering they're all R judges.

Yes the judges here seem like the conservative activist types, which is perhaps why they interceded despite everyone on both sides wanting to go to the FL Supreme Court and bypass them. This was the livethread:

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1719339022517248190?t=A9XUTU9TREkSc73HMcL_CQ...

[Oryxslayer]

In theory whatever happens here doesn't really matter cause both parties agreed to appeal to the State Supreme Court from the intimal hearing, this panel just butted in. Even if they reverse the previous ruling, it'll get pushed up. Everyone's going to the same place as where we were initially, with the Supreme Court having full arbitration with their decision being the important one. And it should be fast, since both parties want this done so that potential remapping occurs during the regular 2024 session. If the Supreme Court was going to say no last month,  then they will say no next month and nothing ever was possible.

The one way it could matter is if this panel overturns the lower court ruling, and then the Supreme Court refuses both the plaintiffs and the Defendants appeals to arbitrate the case.

[Oryxslayer]

After the Winter Holiday Leave, the Florida State Supreme Court accepts the appeals. Additionally, a dissenter from last decades remap recused from the decision to take the case.

However, given the 1st DCA's successful delay by butting in, the original timeframe agreed by the plaintiffs and the state defendants is now moot. This gives the Supreme Court more freedom of motion. Right now they plan at least 2 months until the trial, probably a bit more unless both parties demand a speedier resolution.  

Unless something seriously changes in the ensuing weeks, this is a very obvious telegraph IMO. The Supreme Court could have let the hack 1st's ruling stand and just avoid taking the issue. But since they are, it suggests that a majority are fine making  the pretrial agreement from last Fall a reality (Fl-05 Yes, others no cause we couldn't get the evidence, if you forgot). However, there is now going to be an attempt to delay resolution past 2024. We will have to see in the coming weeks if that will happen: Florida's filing deadline for Congress is in April, but the primary is very late in August. And a minimum disruption restoration map could only effect 4 seats, 2 if the Court orders Duval only rather than the pretrial agreed East-West link.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1757099899508715704?t=qoodB1F-IpCyBNBlY...

This basically means the DeSantis north Florida arrangement will most likely stay for 2024, since action won't be done in time for election deadlines,  unless the court itself adjusts these deadlines. Even though positive resolution seems likely, foiling the 1st DCAs attempts at hackery, the fact the that they did intervene means the pretrial agreements gears were successfully jammed enough to that the tentative schedule agreed upon is no longer relevant or binding.