2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[Oryxslayer]

I agree that keeping a core St. Pete and core Tampa seats makes more sense than the current Senate configuration, tbh (it's weird that they're so adamant on creating 2 swing districts in Hillsborough, but who knows what they're thinking). In every other respect though the Senate map is clearly better.

That's kinda why I expect Something similar to the House's Tampa map to be the final version: one east Tampa minority seat, and one West Tampa and near suburbs + St. Pete and her near suburbs.

[Oryxslayer]

I’m confused why Florida Republicans didn’t go with a plan like DeSantis all along?

They have nothing to stop them at all…..

Clearly because they do see some hurdles that the laser-eyes are disregarding: the Senate is on record as wanting zero voting rights lawsuits, and the leg clearly believes that the provisions of the fair districts amendment clearly can't be disregarded - even though the GOP has the state Supreme Court.

[Oryxslayer]

if Palm Beach then had a 30% black district drawn instead of splitting the Palm Beach black community.

It honestly makes sense to lop the top of FL-20, make FL-21 into a Hispanic-AA coalition seat anchored by Palm Beach, and then nest FL-20 in Broward. However, the Haitian-African American splits within the Broward Black community made it politically impossible. Probably would have happened if Florida got seat 29, cause that one 'wants' to be the fourth M-D Hispanic seat and the effort needed to ensure it would also be a new GOP seat probably would necessitate a major resuffle of Broward and everything to its north.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, news from the floor:

https://twitter.com/NLVWarren/status/1483534943988895747?s=20

This amendment was accepted unanimously.

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1483910818009862152?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

To just end this false equivalency: NC-12 pre-2016 was unnecessary because a compact performing minority seat could be drawn inside Charlotte but instead sprawled. No similarly true-compact option exists in Duval, and a linkage is the only way the seat can perform.

[Oryxslayer]

Desantis's map is way less likely to get struck down than the senate map if either are sued.

lmao what

I mean. Maybe that turns out to be true because the FLSC is stacked with hacks, but that's. Not what I imagine the legal consensus is.

Miller v Johnson. See how the Dekalb Savanah district got struck down by the conservatives on SCOTUS in the 1990's. Note that the map was designed by the GOP.

...you know that the FLSC drew the current configuration in the North right?

This isn't about the FLSC. This is about FL05 being illegal federally.

There is no federal mandate about compactness for congressional districts.   Certainly no mandate about not linking geographically separated minority populations.

I have to disagree with this one here - Gingle's says minority district's cannot be unnecessarily uncompact. Essentially, don't draw districts across the length of the state so as to create minority seats if that is the only option. Or be unnecessarily uncompact to pack in as many PoC as possible when a compact performing alternative exists - the NC 2016 situation.

But of course by Florida redistricting law FL-05 isn't uncompact - especially when we remember that the old FL-05 was more uncompact and signed into law in 2010. This version actually stays in north Florida whereas the previous version went into the I4 and two cities in between.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, here's a statement from the GOP senate today, when questioned on the DeSantis maps.

[Oryxslayer]

FL Senate begins debate in preparation for a vote on the Congressional plans. Several dems praise the process. Not unanimous, it certainly appears on track to have enough votes to sustain a veto.

Also, here is perhaps a reason why R's are happy to dig in rather than give recognition to DeSantis right now:

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1483953546139615234?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1484258416130465800?s=20

Senate map passes, and is basically law since there isn't need for a signature. It's not aggressive, but it is almost impossible to see how the Dems get to 20 seats and the Tampa Bay crossing seat is the only one that could face a legal challenge this cycle.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1484258416130465800?s=20

Senate map passes, and is basically law since there isn't need for a signature. It's not aggressive, but it is almost impossible to see how the Dems get to 20 seats and the Tampa Bay crossing seat is the only one that could face a legal challenge this cycle.

They also nukes Gainesville. Might have faced a challenge under the last court. Certainly a waste now

That's one of the things they did to lock in the majority. It seems sound though since Alachua is 60% White by VAP, so no racial considerations, and it's single cut prevents any other county cuts in the region, observing compactness.

[Oryxslayer]

Something which IMO is underdiscussed is how crummy the Collier-Miami-Dade district is. Obviously it makes sense from a Republican POV, but it's actually extremely egregious under fair redistricting principles. It's a pretty straightforward example linking two unconnected areas since the Everglades in between the portions are basically unpopulated.

The argument that it's needed in the same way as the Texas Fajitas, to unpack a packed minority, doesn't hold water--there are lots of white and Black areas near heavily Latino parts of Miami-Dade that are much more connected to Hialeah than Naples.

IMO fair maps should all have something like this (give or take specific line finagling)

I drew something like this a few years back when Florida was going to get seat 29 - and spoiler that seat would be a new Hispanic seat. With one seat already going south to the Keys, one to the West, and one to the eastern shoreline, going north seemed like the easy option. Well, after talking with MCI, that door quickly shut itself.

The truth is that DRA's Hispanic column doesn't accurately capture the diversity of Hispanic groups in M-D, nor those groups which are mixed between Hispanic and Black like Afro-Caribbean populations. Going north would be intolerable based on these divergences, whereas going west makes sense from the same justification as a Fajita: block voting means one group has control rather than several bickering internally.

[Oryxslayer]

Not sure who MCI is. This guy? 

Yes, he's also my friend on twitter. Works in Tallahassee in I believe the planning department, probably should be the first source on FL political geography and laws pertaining as such if you have no prior knowledge of it. He actually did an analysis of the DeSantis Hispanic seats recently, which included I believe a seat similar but less Hispanic than this.

Only other thing I would add is that is I guess we would have to agree to disagree cause I personally do not consider compactness the first principle of fair redistricting. Adequate and appropriate minority opportunity is principle 1 by law while observing Gingles, and if that requires some oddities like the Fajitas, the new Long Beach - inner LA seat, or a Baton Rouge - Shreveport seat, so be it. That said, I tend to grab Lehigh Acres when I have FL-25 grab the rural Hispanic agriculture everglades communities rather than Naples area whites.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah it's really weird that DeSantis came in so late regarding redistricting when first drafts were out in November. Why didn't he get involved then ? It's probably not too late to get involved but it would have been easier to get involved earlier.

A few options

A: He's just fishing for lazer eye votes. I don't think even think the national GOP apparatus would want to cut FL05. And I am not sure what the purpose of the initial map was other than the FL05 chop.
B: He didn't really pay attention to redistricting until recently .
C: He thought any map would be fine earlier in the cycle but he now believes that he will need a solid delegation coming out of FL if he wants to be a president with a trifecta in 24.

Can we get a definition of lazer eye voters? That actually made me laugh 😂

I don't think there are many. They are vocal on Twitter, but these are insiders of insiders. However, I'm sure there are donors, both large and small, who would like to see something like this on the resume for national office.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1488989718444326913?s=20&t=I65sS3MZQ6BC...

Congress is now the only one left.

[Oryxslayer]

Also another example of being allowed to do draw some weirder districts. HD 117 is a black oppurtunity in southern Miami Dade County. Creating this district shores up all the surrounding hispanic districts. It isn't that weird a district though but it is convinient for the GOP.

Yeah the GOP didn't really go for the big dem strongholds here. Like with Gainesville in the State Senate, they locked in the majority by carving up the isolated forts that would likely get their own seats under a fair plan. Places like Sarasota, eastern Lee, St. Lucie, eastern Polk, and Pensacola got carved up by their R surroundings.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/apantazi/status/1490739496207454209?s=20&t=XmuZ1nlsNIlpv...

Advisory opinions thread.

[Oryxslayer]

Basically they acknowledged what some of the plaintiffs said that at this time redistricting is the purview of the legislature, and perhaps the governor if a veto is necessary and upheld. Court scrutiny therefore makes no sense unless there is an impasse. And the senate has a near-unanimously approved plan.

So we are back where we were before DeSantis butted in, with the House and Senate likely to need a negotiation process over the Tampa and Orlando regions.

[Oryxslayer]

It’s still possible that House Rs take DeSantis’s suggestion for remapping North Florida and run with it.

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1491809901919621120?s=20&t=-JAPI-EcSnHC...

They would have to go against their own stated analysis and testimony then.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MaryEllenKlas/status/1491869496398782468?s=20&t=-JAPI-Ec...

i don't know what will happen now, but the Senate has the votes to override a veto.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone know what the BVAP is for 10?

Not good comparatively. One of two major disagreements between the chambers is that the Senate's analysis found the 10th protected, the House does not. This is cause the House wants to remove the White-Black marginal precincts in the west of the county and add in the central White ones, forcing Fl-07 northwards. Finding that it is performing is reverses the situation on the senate map.

Of course the only reason they are doing this is for Fl-07, the House okay'ed districts with similar compositions as performing on their legislative lines.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, the House's third Tampa seat is apparently effectively tied based on 2020 results. This is the other major point of difference, and as shown if the Legislature wants the new seat and the others reaching into the region to be reliably R, the only way is to use the bridges to make Fl-13 into a new Dem pack for the West Bay. Kinda like what they did in December.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone know what the BVAP is for 10?

Not good comparatively. One of two major disagreements between the chambers is that the Senate's analysis found the 10th protected, the House does not. This is cause the House wants to remove the White-Black marginal precincts in the west of the county and add in the central White ones, forcing Fl-07 northwards. Finding that it is performing is reverses the situation on the senate map.

Of course the only reason they are doing this is for Fl-07, the House okay'ed districts with similar compositions as performing on their legislative lines.

Is there a way to take the Senate's FL-10 and the House's FL-07 or is it an either or situation?

That way requires having an ugly arm squiggle down through Orange to grab the downtown Whites and throw them with Lake or some other I4 county, or you split Seminole. The former would be hard to justify under the rules of the road, the latter seems a political non-starter. So it kinda is either-or cause if the central Whites cannot go in either minority seat, then they will likely end up with their nearest neighbor.

Tampa similarly feels like a either-or, since the Tampa-St. Pete water crossing is DOA. Either you pack Dems into two seats, or you will have three seats that vary from marginal leans to Dem favoring.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1492212937095663616?s=20&t=IpHDdM9MTBQW...

So there is two ways this ends right now cause DeSantis's goals are national not Florida-specific: House amasses a similar supermajority that can override like the senate, or the two chambers work out a map and get the conservative court to do what conservative courts like to do and okay previously passed maps.

[Oryxslayer]

A Democratic district can be drawn in Duval, wouldn't that be effectively black influence?

Not yet. The numbers and trends suggest though that it is very close and would almost certainly be an option if we did mid-decade censuses.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AnthonySabatini/status/1492144616296038401?s=20&t=NRd5Sp...

Also, watch the House immediately reconfigure FL-07 after getting reminded this guy exists.