2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida  (Read 55388 times)
BoiseBoy
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« Reply #400 on: January 20, 2022, 02:38:10 PM »

Both House and Senate redistricting chairs have essentially rejected the DeSantis map:


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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #401 on: January 20, 2022, 02:50:24 PM »

FL Senate begins debate in preparation for a vote on the Congressional plans. Several dems praise the process. Not unanimous, it certainly appears on track to have enough votes to sustain a veto.

Also, here is perhaps a reason why R's are happy to dig in rather than give recognition to DeSantis right now:

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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #402 on: January 20, 2022, 02:57:02 PM »

Congressional map passed on a 31-4 vote, lots of DEM crossover support.

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #403 on: January 20, 2022, 03:14:26 PM »

Congressional map passed on a 31-4 vote, lots of DEM crossover support.



Wow, that's very veto-proof.
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« Reply #404 on: January 20, 2022, 03:38:55 PM »

What I don't get is why the Dems voted "No" lol

This map is a best-case scenario.
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #405 on: January 20, 2022, 03:39:42 PM »

What I don't get is why the Dems voted "No" lol

This map is a best-case scenario.
A few of them wanted to push for another Hispanic access seat in central florida.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #406 on: January 20, 2022, 03:48:26 PM »

What I don't get is why the Dems voted "No" lol

This map is a best-case scenario.
A few of them wanted to push for another Hispanic access seat in central florida.

Between this, the Beshear veto in KY, and the refusal to supply 2/3rds in MO, Dems sure are into counterproductive last stand tactics these days.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #407 on: January 20, 2022, 03:55:58 PM »



Senate map passes, and is basically law since there isn't need for a signature. It's not aggressive, but it is almost impossible to see how the Dems get to 20 seats and the Tampa Bay crossing seat is the only one that could face a legal challenge this cycle.
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« Reply #408 on: January 20, 2022, 03:56:45 PM »

What I don't get is why the Dems voted "No" lol

This map is a best-case scenario.
A few of them wanted to push for another Hispanic access seat in central florida.

It's barely possible to make even one majority-Hispanic seat lol

Biting your face to spite your nose I guess



I like these new maps a lot actually.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #409 on: January 20, 2022, 03:59:07 PM »



Senate map passes, and is basically law since there isn't need for a signature. It's not aggressive, but it is almost impossible to see how the Dems get to 20 seats and the Tampa Bay crossing seat is the only one that could face a legal challenge this cycle.

They also nukes Gainesville. Might have faced a challenge under the last court. Certainly a waste now
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #410 on: January 20, 2022, 04:04:26 PM »
« Edited: January 20, 2022, 04:14:22 PM by Oryxslayer »



Senate map passes, and is basically law since there isn't need for a signature. It's not aggressive, but it is almost impossible to see how the Dems get to 20 seats and the Tampa Bay crossing seat is the only one that could face a legal challenge this cycle.

They also nukes Gainesville. Might have faced a challenge under the last court. Certainly a waste now

That's one of the things they did to lock in the majority. It seems sound though since Alachua is 60% White by VAP, so no racial considerations, and it's single cut prevents any other county cuts in the region, observing compactness.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #411 on: January 20, 2022, 04:08:12 PM »



Senate map passes, and is basically law since there isn't need for a signature. It's not aggressive, but it is almost impossible to see how the Dems get to 20 seats and the Tampa Bay crossing seat is the only one that could face a legal challenge this cycle.

They also nukes Gainesville. Might have faced a challenge under the last court. Certainly a waste now

That's one of the things they did to lock in the majority. It seems sound though since Alachua is 60% White by VAP, so no racial considerations, and it's single cut prevents any county cuts in the region, observing compactness.

Yeah of course, there is a 0% it gets struck down. The old map kept Alachua whole and the court still struck it down though.
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Torie
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« Reply #412 on: January 20, 2022, 07:24:28 PM »

What I don't get is why the Dems voted "No" lol

This map is a best-case scenario.
A few of them wanted to push for another Hispanic access seat in central florida.

Between this, the Beshear veto in KY, and the refusal to supply 2/3rds in MO, Dems sure are into counterproductive last stand tactics these days.

Redistricting drives even the most calm and centered of the contestants into utter perfervid self-destructive insanity.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #413 on: January 20, 2022, 08:26:40 PM »

To me, it seems like the State Senate is more about bending to the will of individual incumbents, whereas DeSantis is doing more what national Rs want. The DeSantis map would narrow many R seats beyond what incumbents want whereas the Senate map sacrifices D seats in exchange for incumbents retaining their current seat if not making it better. Many incumbents also prolly worry about the potential if the map is overturned because it's seen as too extreme, they'll get completely screwed., When you think about it, this makes sense as the Florida Senate is going to be more invested in the state's politics whereas DeSantis is really a national figure on Rs side.

The FL State Senate map is interesting because while it is generally pretty fair from a COI and visual standpoint, the median seat is pushed decently to the right of the state at about Trump + 10 on 2020 numbers. There just seems to generally be a theme in their maps of everything being normal except a lack of narrow R seats.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #414 on: January 20, 2022, 08:47:13 PM »
« Edited: January 21, 2022, 09:39:23 AM by lfromnj »

To me, it seems like the State Senate is more about bending to the will of individual incumbents, whereas DeSantis is doing more what national Rs want. The DeSantis map would narrow many R seats beyond what incumbents want whereas the Senate map sacrifices D seats in exchange for incumbents retaining their current seat if not making it better. Many incumbents also prolly worry about the potential if the map is overturned because it's seen as too extreme, they'll get completely screwed., When you think about it, this makes sense as the Florida Senate is going to be more invested in the state's politics whereas DeSantis is really a national figure on Rs side.

The FL State Senate map is interesting because while it is generally pretty fair from a COI and visual standpoint, the median seat is pushed decently to the right of the state at about Trump + 10 on 2020 numbers. There just seems to generally be a theme in their maps of everything being normal except a lack of narrow R seats.


Im not sure if they are including incumbent demands. Bilrakis seems to have been swept aside at the very least. Incumbents like Daniel Webster would have to be overscared to be more worried about a R+15 instead of R+20 seat  that has a Sabatini primary challenge. Just a quick reminder that FL has very short term limits in the legislature.


The main reason to avoid any such aggressive map is to avoid a killing of tjhe golden goose and getting a ballot measure. Desantis though is probably atleast mad that they aren't even getting 1 egg from the entire map and just gave it away to the Democrats(The new seat is Biden +5 which makes no sense from a partisan GOP perspective and not much sense either from a good map perspective)
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #415 on: January 21, 2022, 03:01:58 AM »

I do think a number of posters on Twitter have been far too sanguine about the DeSantis map and putting too much faith in the Senate to do what it wants.
I don't think so, both houses are pretty much done with redistricting and I doubt there's any legislative appetite to start over at this rate. Somethings that's probably stopping them is that they don't want it to go to court which would introduce a lot of uncertainty regarding wheter any republicans will be drawn out or into competive races.
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Torie
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« Reply #416 on: January 24, 2022, 09:03:27 AM »

FWIW, I think the state senate CD map is very skillfully done, almost a work of art actually.(Notice how it moves FL-13 another Pub pvi point by snatching away a few Dem precincts in St. Pete via a very smooth straight line running down some freeway along the west side of the bay - just glorious.)  It is a soft Pub gerrymander, that should be safe from court challenge under the state constitution.  DeSantis's performance art here can only be part of his peacock strut for POTUS. Just as the CD map is a Pub-lite gerrymander, DeSantis strikes me as Trump-lite.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #417 on: January 24, 2022, 09:49:01 AM »
« Edited: January 24, 2022, 10:01:01 AM by lfromnj »

FWIW, I think the state senate CD map is very skillfully done, almost a work of art actually.(Notice how it moves FL-13 another Pub pvi point by snatching away a few Dem precincts in St. Pete via a very smooth straight line running down some freeway along the west side of the bay - just glorious.)  It is a soft Pub gerrymander, that should be safe from court challenge under the state constitution.  DeSantis's performance art here can only be part of his peacock strut for POTUS. Just as the CD map is a Pub-lite gerrymander, DeSantis strikes me as Trump-lite.

Making 3 biden seats in the Tampa Bay area isn't a soft pubmander. Its either being over scared of lawsuits or over confident in your ability as a party in a politically stagnant area.
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Torie
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« Reply #418 on: January 24, 2022, 10:02:19 AM »

FWIW, I think the state senate CD map is very skillfully done, almost a work of art actually.(Notice how it moves FL-13 another Pub pvi point by snatching away a few Dem precincts in St. Pete via a very smooth straight line running down some freeway along the west side of the bay - just glorious.)  It is a soft Pub gerrymander, that should be safe from court challenge under the state constitution.  DeSantis's performance art here can only be part of his peacock strut for POTUS. Just as the CD map is a Pub-lite gerrymander, DeSantis strikes me as Trump-lite.

Making 3 biden seats in the Tampa Bay area isn't a soft pubmander.

I was focused on FL-13 in particular, but the two seats to the east are not all that Dem. I use the term "Pubmander" in the context of what can be snatched away or protected without generating a material amount of legal risk. As soon as a court gets hostile, you tend to lose control of the process, and then there is no telling what the discommoded ones in robes might do to let the pols know who is boss.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #419 on: January 24, 2022, 10:13:55 AM »
« Edited: January 24, 2022, 10:17:03 AM by lfromnj »

FWIW, I think the state senate CD map is very skillfully done, almost a work of art actually.(Notice how it moves FL-13 another Pub pvi point by snatching away a few Dem precincts in St. Pete via a very smooth straight line running down some freeway along the west side of the bay - just glorious.)  It is a soft Pub gerrymander, that should be safe from court challenge under the state constitution.  DeSantis's performance art here can only be part of his peacock strut for POTUS. Just as the CD map is a Pub-lite gerrymander, DeSantis strikes me as Trump-lite.

Making 3 biden seats in the Tampa Bay area isn't a soft pubmander.

I was focused on FL-13 in particular, but the two seats to the east are not all that Dem. I use the term "Pubmander" in the context of what can be snatched away or protected without generating a material amount of legal risk. As soon as a court gets hostile, you tend to lose control of the process, and then there is no telling what the discommoded ones in robes might do to let the pols know who is boss.


It's Biden +5 and +8 which are both left of the nation. Not sure what advantage the GOP gets in giving a creating a new seat left of the median for the Democrats. I did agree that the Desantis map was a very poor pubmander as it was both contraversial with little benefit. My proposed Tampa map from a few pages before gives the same partisan benefit while not really being a gerrymander.
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Torie
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« Reply #420 on: January 24, 2022, 10:22:23 AM »

FWIW, I think the state senate CD map is very skillfully done, almost a work of art actually.(Notice how it moves FL-13 another Pub pvi point by snatching away a few Dem precincts in St. Pete via a very smooth straight line running down some freeway along the west side of the bay - just glorious.)  It is a soft Pub gerrymander, that should be safe from court challenge under the state constitution.  DeSantis's performance art here can only be part of his peacock strut for POTUS. Just as the CD map is a Pub-lite gerrymander, DeSantis strikes me as Trump-lite.

Making 3 biden seats in the Tampa Bay area isn't a soft pubmander.

I was focused on FL-13 in particular, but the two seats to the east are not all that Dem. I use the term "Pubmander" in the context of what can be snatched away or protected without generating a material amount of legal risk. As soon as a court gets hostile, you tend to lose control of the process, and then there is no telling what the discommoded ones in robes might do to let the pols know who is boss.


It's Biden +5 and +8 which are both left of the nation. Not sure what advantage the GOP gets in giving a creating a new seat left of the median for the Democrats. I did agree that the Desantis map was a very poor pubmander as it was both contraversial with little benefit. My proposed Tampa map from a few pages before gives the same partisan benefit while not really being a gerrymander.

What page number is your map on?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #421 on: January 24, 2022, 10:23:53 AM »

FWIW, I think the state senate CD map is very skillfully done, almost a work of art actually.(Notice how it moves FL-13 another Pub pvi point by snatching away a few Dem precincts in St. Pete via a very smooth straight line running down some freeway along the west side of the bay - just glorious.)  It is a soft Pub gerrymander, that should be safe from court challenge under the state constitution.  DeSantis's performance art here can only be part of his peacock strut for POTUS. Just as the CD map is a Pub-lite gerrymander, DeSantis strikes me as Trump-lite.

Making 3 biden seats in the Tampa Bay area isn't a soft pubmander.

I was focused on FL-13 in particular, but the two seats to the east are not all that Dem. I use the term "Pubmander" in the context of what can be snatched away or protected without generating a material amount of legal risk. As soon as a court gets hostile, you tend to lose control of the process, and then there is no telling what the discommoded ones in robes might do to let the pols know who is boss.


It's Biden +5 and +8 which are both left of the nation. Not sure what advantage the GOP gets in giving a creating a new seat left of the median for the Democrats. I did agree that the Desantis map was a very poor pubmander as it was both contraversial with little benefit. My proposed Tampa map from a few pages before gives the same partisan benefit while not really being a gerrymander.

What page number is your map on?


15. It is perhaps a touch to cherry picked in Pinellas but in Tampa it just follows city boundaries. Don't forget to rescue the Cubans of Western Hillsborough Tongue
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Torie
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« Reply #422 on: January 24, 2022, 10:33:50 AM »

FWIW, I think the state senate CD map is very skillfully done, almost a work of art actually.(Notice how it moves FL-13 another Pub pvi point by snatching away a few Dem precincts in St. Pete via a very smooth straight line running down some freeway along the west side of the bay - just glorious.)  It is a soft Pub gerrymander, that should be safe from court challenge under the state constitution.  DeSantis's performance art here can only be part of his peacock strut for POTUS. Just as the CD map is a Pub-lite gerrymander, DeSantis strikes me as Trump-lite.

Making 3 biden seats in the Tampa Bay area isn't a soft pubmander.

I was focused on FL-13 in particular, but the two seats to the east are not all that Dem. I use the term "Pubmander" in the context of what can be snatched away or protected without generating a material amount of legal risk. As soon as a court gets hostile, you tend to lose control of the process, and then there is no telling what the discommoded ones in robes might do to let the pols know who is boss.


It's Biden +5 and +8 which are both left of the nation. Not sure what advantage the GOP gets in giving a creating a new seat left of the median for the Democrats. I did agree that the Desantis map was a very poor pubmander as it was both contraversial with little benefit. My proposed Tampa map from a few pages before gives the same partisan benefit while not really being a gerrymander.

What page number is your map on?


15. It is perhaps a touch to cherry picked in Pinellas but in Tampa it just follows city boundaries. Don't forget to rescue the Cubans of Western Hillsborough Tongue

You have a dra link to it? I will check it out tonight. Off to traffic court 2 hours away to fight a ticket that I think was wrong. Everything for defense, not one cent for tribute.
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Sol
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« Reply #423 on: January 24, 2022, 12:53:38 PM »

Something which IMO is underdiscussed is how crummy the Collier-Miami-Dade district is. Obviously it makes sense from a Republican POV, but it's actually extremely egregious under fair redistricting principles. It's a pretty straightforward example linking two unconnected areas since the Everglades in between the portions are basically unpopulated.

The argument that it's needed in the same way as the Texas Fajitas, to unpack a packed minority, doesn't hold water--there are lots of white and Black areas near heavily Latino parts of Miami-Dade that are much more connected to Hialeah than Naples.

IMO fair maps should all have something like this (give or take specific line finagling)

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lfromnj
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« Reply #424 on: January 24, 2022, 01:08:50 PM »
« Edited: February 01, 2022, 05:28:28 PM by lfromnj »

Something which IMO is underdiscussed is how crummy the Collier-Miami-Dade district is. Obviously it makes sense from a Republican POV, but it's actually extremely egregious under fair redistricting principles. It's a pretty straightforward example linking two unconnected areas since the Everglades in between the portions are basically unpopulated.

The argument that it's needed in the same way as the Texas Fajitas, to unpack a packed minority, doesn't hold water--there are lots of white and Black areas near heavily Latino parts of Miami-Dade that are much more connected to Hialeah than Naples.

IMO fair maps should all have something like this (give or take specific line finagling)



Agreed mostly although there is a very slight justification(not much) but keeping Collier in the west would split Lee . Being close to a district isn't full justification for being a district even if it is a strong argument. In this case it would make more sense for it not to overtake especially as Lee and Collier are well connected.
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