Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

I think this may be their best, most professional campaign to date, because it is so multi-layered. There are certain central elements that are in all sorts of ways connected to each other and they all reinforce each other. Rutte being a leader who takes responsibility; the VVD showing leadership and pulling the Netherlands out of the crisis; the VVD, not naive and not extreme, being the ordinary man's common sense option; the optimism about the future; being tough when necessary... and they are all connected in the party's subliminal messaging.

I have also come to think that "Normaal. Doen." is a terrific slogan, even if I myself find it to be cringeworthy. It consists of the element "normaal doen" (imperative mood), which is something one would punitively say to a kid who does not want to listen and is obviously aimed at those who don't want to adhere to our values -- people get this. However, because of the punctuation, "normaal" and "doen" are also separate elements, where "normaal" refers to the characteristic Dutch value most (and, with a populist twist, it reinforces the idea that the VVD are a middle-class party rather than elitist) and "doen" to the idea that the VVD don't shy away from making tough choices if necessary, which, in turn, is subliminally tied to the other campaign messages.

Rutte's letter was somewhat overshadowed by the troubles related to Van der Steur, but since early February they have stepped up their game. Obviously the circumstances are different than in 2012 and they are never going to win 41 seats this time around, but their campaign is top notch. Every type of messaging is thought out. Of course, it remains to be seen whether Rutte can withstand Buma's attacks this Sunday. It is clear that credibility, the mood in the country and "norms and values" are the VVD's biggest issues right now.

[DavidB.]

And this is what the map would look like on the basis of current polling.

[freek]

And this is what the map would look like on the basis of current polling.

[DavidB.]

The VVD would be the largest party here, but bellwether Heemskerk would vote PVV (but Apeldoorn and Vianen would vote VVD). Margins would be extremely close in a lot of places though.

Also nice how this map shows that the VVD is still a lot stronger in Drenthe than in the rest of the north. And watch the area between north and south, between the rivers. This used to be PvdA land in the 60s and 70s. Now all declining areas where PVV and VVD are popular.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

For anyone interested, electionbettingodds now has their dutch election page up:

https://electionbettingodds.com/Dutch2017.html

[DavidB.]

For anyone interested, electionbettingodds now has their dutch election page up:

https://electionbettingodds.com/Dutch2017.html

Only for Prime Minister? And 20% have Wilders as future PM? Lol. I'd say there's a 90%> chance Rutte will be PM. Largest party would be a more interesting question imo.

[SunSt0rm]

For anyone interested, electionbettingodds now has their dutch election page up:

https://electionbettingodds.com/Dutch2017.html

lol, Wilders at 20% and Buma non existent.

[SunSt0rm]

And this is what the map would look like on the basis of current polling.

Interesting, PvdA completely wiped out. Almost all cities in the south and west going from PvdA to D66 now. Although I expect with the current polls that GL would take Amsterdam and Utrecht.

[DavidB.]

Interesting, PvdA completely wiped out. Almost all cities in the south and west going from PvdA to D66 now. Although I expect with the current polls that GL would take Amsterdam and Utrecht.

D66 are still ahead of GL in most polls, in some of them by a pretty substantial margin, so I think they would win both... but yes, those two municipalities will be close. GL will win Utrecht before they win Amsterdam, but I expect D66 to win both unless Klaver gets momentum on the left. The Hague will also be interesting since the VVD vote should hold up pretty well there (though VVD-PVV swings in the new district Leidschenveen-Ypenburg may be bigger). It will be a D66/VVD/PVV three-way race, but I think the VVD may have the edge right now. Rotterdam seems a done deal for the PVV.

[SunSt0rm]

Interesting, PvdA completely wiped out. Almost all cities in the south and west going from PvdA to D66 now. Although I expect with the current polls that GL would take Amsterdam and Utrecht.

D66 are still ahead of GL in most polls, in some of them by a pretty substantial margin, so I think they would win both... but yes, those two municipalities will be close. GL will win Utrecht before they win Amsterdam, but I expect D66 to win both unless Klaver gets momentum on the left. The Hague will also be interesting since the VVD vote should hold up pretty well there (though VVD-PVV swings in the new district Leidschenveen-Ypenburg may be bigger). It will be a D66/VVD/PVV three-way race. Rotterdam seems a done deal.

I remember GL being slightly bigger than D66 in Utrecht and Amsterdam in the election of 2010 when they both got 10 seats.

Yea The Hague will be D66/VVD/PVV
Amsterdam & Utrech (and most university cities): D66/GL
Rotterdam: PVV
Eindhoven & Tilburg: D66/VVD/PVV (maybe also SP, if they do a bit better)

[DavidB.]

You may be right: the GL vote is much more urban whereas D66 are much stronger in suburbs, so even if GL and D66 end up with the same number of seats GL may have the edge in Amsterdam and especially Utrecht. But if D66 win three or more seats more than GL, they win Amsterdam and perhaps Utrecht too -- perhaps my views on this are too much colored by my skepticism of Klavermentum (i.e. the belief that he will end up with about 15 seats rather than about 20).

Eindhoven is an interesting one and I really don't know what to expect there. The SP came first there in the 2015 provincials and should not be underestimated either, but I think D66 have the edge now. The CDA/PVV -> VVD swings in Brabant were insane outside the big cities, particularly in the West. I expect big swings toward CDA and PVV there, though the VVD should still be able to be close to their 2010 level.

[SunSt0rm]

You may be right: the GL vote is much more urban whereas D66 are much stronger in suburbs, so even if GL and D66 end up with the same number of seats GL may have the edge in Amsterdam and especially Utrecht. But if D66 win three or more seats more than GL, they win Amsterdam and perhaps Utrecht too -- perhaps my views on this are too much colored by my skepticism of Klavermentum (i.e. the belief that he will end up with about 15 seats rather than about 20).

Eindhoven is an interesting one and I really don't know what to expect there. The SP came first there in the 2015 provincials and should not be underestimated either, but I think D66 have the edge now. The CDA/PVV -> VVD swings in Brabant were insane outside the big cities, particularly in the West. I expect big swings toward CDA and PVV there, though the VVD should still be able to be close to their 2010 level.

I am also sceptical about D66 as they may lose some seats in the final days compared to the current polls, although their campaign is fine now. They never manage to peak at the right moment.

Eindhoven is definetely going to be interesting. SP is normally doing great here, but I expect that there is SP/PVV swing outside the city centre. But I wouldnt rule the SP completely out, but I think PVV, VVD and D66 will perform better than the SP now.

In the west of Brabant, I expect the PVV will top CDA and VVD, while in the east outside Eindhoven and its suburbs it will be CDA country. I expect the VVD will be strongest in the Eindhoven suburbs and the area between the four big cities. VVD will easily take Breda and Den Bosch, while PVV will take Helmond. North East Brabant will be battle between CDA and SP.

[SunSt0rm]

Electoral map of the Netherlands



Rus belts will go to PVV in this map, Green Belts will be places D66 will be strong, but areas where the VVD should win outisde the cities. Green Belt in the south and in the east (gelderland) will be VVD/CDA battle outside the cities. Civil Belts are places where CDA will win and where the PvdA should hold some cities.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, this is a very good one. I read his book Bakfietsen en Rolluiken: De electorale geografie van Nederland, his approach is extremely useful and influences much of my thinking on Dutch electoral geography and voting behavior in general.

[SunSt0rm]

Tomorrow it will the Carre Debate (which I cant watch) between eight parties. VVD, CDA, D66, GL, SP, PvdA, 50+ and PvvD. Wilders wont be present, because of the interview of his brother and CU as it is sunday. Rutte will be present this time. Setting will be different from the first debate. Four subjects will be debated by only 4 parties each time. Each party will only engage in two debates.

Initially the setup would have look like this with Wilders, dont know if they changed it completely or just replace Wilders with Thieme (Animals). What to look for: Rutte vs Buma and battle between the left parties (its actually their last chance to change the momentum especially for PvdA)

Initially setup:
1. Copayments in the healthcare sector should be abolished
2. The Netherlands has protected its culture insufficiently
3. The retirement age should be lowered to 65
4. A stronger EU is more necessary than ever

[DavidB.]

Would love to see Rutte and Buma on the second one (PvdD, 50Plus, GL, PvdA on that one seems especially uninteresting). Will watch for sure, pretty excited for it.

[freek]

New peil.nl poll

 

[DavidB.]

Social Affairs and Integration Minister and PvdA leader Asscher now stated that the government's opposition to Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu's wish to organize a campaign event in Rotterdam for a "yes" vote in the AK's power grab referendum is worth a "diplomatic row" between the Netherlands and Turkey. Dangerous pre-election posturing in my opinion. Of course AK are terrible and Turkey is on course to become a dictatorship, but there are no grounds to prevent Çavuşoğlu from campaigning in Rotterdam: the argument that public order is at risk seems unsubstantiated to me and appears to be rejected by Rotterdam mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb (PvdA) too. Dutch political parties should have realized that fifth column situations are both undesirable and inevitable before opening the borders to immigrants whose values clash fundamentally with Dutch values. There is nothing the national government can do right now to prevent Turkish politicians from campaigning in the Netherlands.

[ApatheticAustrian]

what the....

i love and hate this last minute vote switching in the netherlands ...most interesting but at the same time confusing for foreigners.

why is CDA gaining so much suddenly?

[DavidB.]

why is CDA gaining so much suddenly?

CDA leader Buma made a strong impression in last week's tv debate in which both Rutte and Wilders were absent. Because of that, he started to receive some good press and attention and gained momentum. In tonight's debate, Rutte and Buma will both be present but Wilders will stay home again.

[ApatheticAustrian]

but Wilders will stay home again.

what the? is the man totally deaf?

at some point a kind of right wing coalition without wilders becomes possible, i figure.

[DavidB.]

what the? is the man totally deaf?

He makes two main strategic errors in this campaign (and he already made a lot more before the campaign...). First, he thinks that voters are either with him or not with him: he has a base, and then there are voters who will never vote for him. Clearly untrue: his floor is around 15 seats, his ceiling around 40. Second, he thinks turning out his base is the only thing he should focus on. While this is actually a real issue -- in 2012, the party lost more PVV-2010 voters due to people staying home than to PVV -> VVD voter movement -- not appearing in a debate will only work counterproductively. Wilders seems to assume he has to motivate people in different ways. Maybe he's a genius and I'm proven totally wrong on March 15 -- wouldn't be the first time -- but I doubt it.

Let's also not forget that Wilders' worldview and strategic considerations are highly influenced by the fact that the man is basically a prisoner and only surrounds himself with people who say yes to him all the time. Not a good environment for the best tactical decisions.

at some point a kind of right wing coalition without wilders becomes possible, i figure.

Well, VVD-CDA-D66-SGP-CU could be considered "a kind of right-wing coalition" in my opinion, and it's definitely a possibility after the election.

[mgop]

how realistic is cda-vvd minority gov with support of pvv, and buma as prime minister?

[Dutch Conservative]

at some point a kind of right wing coalition without wilders becomes possible, i figure.

Well, VVD-CDA-D66-SGP-CU could be considered "a kind of right-wing coalition" in my opinion, and it's definitely a possibility after the election.

I would be in favour of that! Although it's hard te imagine Van der Staaij / Segers with Pechtold in one cabinet, on moral issues they are counterparts.

Pechtold is working really hard and getting much attention. I think D'66 will win both Utrecht and Amsterdam. A good achievement, considered the absence of Wilders (and Pechtold usually profiles as the anti-Wilders). I had expected people would be more Pechtold-fatigue than they seem.

Klaver (GL) seems to have peaked too early. SP, CU and PvdA numbers seem stuck.

I still think there is enough time for the PVV to recover from the declining pollnumbers in the last weeks and I believe Wilders biggest goal will be the turnout of his voters. He has to do really well in the debates in te last week.

[Dutch Conservative]

how realistic is cda-vvd minority gov with support of pvv, and buma as prime minister?

Very, very unlikely. I expect new elections will be held before that option will be chosen. It's not going to happen.