Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[SunSt0rm]

Tomorrow it will the Carre Debate (which I cant watch) between eight parties. VVD, CDA, D66, GL, SP, PvdA, 50+ and PvvD. Wilders wont be present, because of the interview of his brother and CU as it is sunday. Rutte will be present this time. Setting will be different from the first debate. Four subjects will be debated by only 4 parties each time. Each party will only engage in two debates.

Initially the setup would have look like this with Wilders, dont know if they changed it completely or just replace Wilders with Thieme (Animals). What to look for: Rutte vs Buma and battle between the left parties (its actually their last chance to change the momentum especially for PvdA)

Initially setup:
1. Copayments in the healthcare sector should be abolished
2. The Netherlands has protected its culture insufficiently
3. The retirement age should be lowered to 65
4. A stronger EU is more necessary than ever

[DavidB.]

Would love to see Rutte and Buma on the second one (PvdD, 50Plus, GL, PvdA on that one seems especially uninteresting). Will watch for sure, pretty excited for it.

[freek]

New peil.nl poll

 

[DavidB.]

Social Affairs and Integration Minister and PvdA leader Asscher now stated that the government's opposition to Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu's wish to organize a campaign event in Rotterdam for a "yes" vote in the AK's power grab referendum is worth a "diplomatic row" between the Netherlands and Turkey. Dangerous pre-election posturing in my opinion. Of course AK are terrible and Turkey is on course to become a dictatorship, but there are no grounds to prevent Çavuşoğlu from campaigning in Rotterdam: the argument that public order is at risk seems unsubstantiated to me and appears to be rejected by Rotterdam mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb (PvdA) too. Dutch political parties should have realized that fifth column situations are both undesirable and inevitable before opening the borders to immigrants whose values clash fundamentally with Dutch values. There is nothing the national government can do right now to prevent Turkish politicians from campaigning in the Netherlands.

[ApatheticAustrian]

what the....

i love and hate this last minute vote switching in the netherlands ...most interesting but at the same time confusing for foreigners.

why is CDA gaining so much suddenly?

[DavidB.]

why is CDA gaining so much suddenly?

CDA leader Buma made a strong impression in last week's tv debate in which both Rutte and Wilders were absent. Because of that, he started to receive some good press and attention and gained momentum. In tonight's debate, Rutte and Buma will both be present but Wilders will stay home again.

[ApatheticAustrian]

but Wilders will stay home again.

what the? is the man totally deaf?

at some point a kind of right wing coalition without wilders becomes possible, i figure.

[DavidB.]

what the? is the man totally deaf?

He makes two main strategic errors in this campaign (and he already made a lot more before the campaign...). First, he thinks that voters are either with him or not with him: he has a base, and then there are voters who will never vote for him. Clearly untrue: his floor is around 15 seats, his ceiling around 40. Second, he thinks turning out his base is the only thing he should focus on. While this is actually a real issue -- in 2012, the party lost more PVV-2010 voters due to people staying home than to PVV -> VVD voter movement -- not appearing in a debate will only work counterproductively. Wilders seems to assume he has to motivate people in different ways. Maybe he's a genius and I'm proven totally wrong on March 15 -- wouldn't be the first time -- but I doubt it.

Let's also not forget that Wilders' worldview and strategic considerations are highly influenced by the fact that the man is basically a prisoner and only surrounds himself with people who say yes to him all the time. Not a good environment for the best tactical decisions.

at some point a kind of right wing coalition without wilders becomes possible, i figure.

Well, VVD-CDA-D66-SGP-CU could be considered "a kind of right-wing coalition" in my opinion, and it's definitely a possibility after the election.

[mgop]

how realistic is cda-vvd minority gov with support of pvv, and buma as prime minister?

[Dutch Conservative]

at some point a kind of right wing coalition without wilders becomes possible, i figure.

Well, VVD-CDA-D66-SGP-CU could be considered "a kind of right-wing coalition" in my opinion, and it's definitely a possibility after the election.

I would be in favour of that! Although it's hard te imagine Van der Staaij / Segers with Pechtold in one cabinet, on moral issues they are counterparts.

Pechtold is working really hard and getting much attention. I think D'66 will win both Utrecht and Amsterdam. A good achievement, considered the absence of Wilders (and Pechtold usually profiles as the anti-Wilders). I had expected people would be more Pechtold-fatigue than they seem.

Klaver (GL) seems to have peaked too early. SP, CU and PvdA numbers seem stuck.

I still think there is enough time for the PVV to recover from the declining pollnumbers in the last weeks and I believe Wilders biggest goal will be the turnout of his voters. He has to do really well in the debates in te last week.

[Dutch Conservative]

how realistic is cda-vvd minority gov with support of pvv, and buma as prime minister?

Very, very unlikely. I expect new elections will be held before that option will be chosen. It's not going to happen.

[Zinneke]

how realistic is cda-vvd minority gov with support of pvv, and buma as prime minister?

It won't happen again because of precedence.

Nor will any D66-religious party combo work because the religious parties really care about imposing their social agenda above everything else.

[DavidB.]

how realistic is cda-vvd minority gov with support of pvv, and buma as prime minister?

Zero chance, unfortunately. The PVV are toxic right now.

Nor will any D66-religious party combo work because the religious parties really care about imposing their social agenda above everything else.

D66-CDA should work just fine. D66-CU-SGP will be somewhat more challenging, but they could simply agree to not changing the status-quo in the next four years. The CDA will be needed in any case, which already complicates that stuff for D66 anyway.

[DavidB.]

Debate will start in ten minutes: live stream here.

[DavidB.]

Asscher and Roemer support ending copayments, Pechtold and Buma don't. Roemer had an extremely strong introductory statement imo.

[Dutch Conservative]

Asscher and Roemer support ending copayments, Pechtold and Buma don't. Roemer had an extremely strong introductory statement imo.

My view so far: strong performance of Buma. Thieme and Klaver very weak. Krol a bit angry. Rutte and Asscher do not impress.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Can we say that CDA growth of poll support is somehow connected to the Buma? Or rather poor campaign by Rutte?

[DavidB.]

Three sections down, one to go. Buma, Krol (who goes full cultural nationalist to hurt the PVV with olds), Klaver and Roemer strong. Thieme (is she drunk? she barely seems to be able to talk) and Asscher weak. Rutte and Pechtold so far unimpressive.

Can we say that CDA growth of poll support is somehow connected to the Buma? Or rather poor campaign by Rutte?

Mainly connected to Buma's strengths. To me, it's as if the CDA are suddenly back. See also:

CDA leader Buma made a strong impression in last week's tv debate in which both Rutte and Wilders were absent. Because of that, he started to receive some good press and attention and gained momentum. In tonight's debate, Rutte and Buma will both be present but Wilders will stay home again.

[Dutch Conservative]

Three sections down, one to go. Buma, Krol (who goes full cultural nationalist to hurt the PVV with olds), Klaver and Roemer strong. Thieme (is she drunk? she barely seems to be able to talk) and Asscher weak. Rutte and Pechtold so far unimpressive.

Can we say that CDA growth of poll support is somehow connected to the Buma? Or rather poor campaign by Rutte?

Mainly connected to Buma's strengths. To me, it's as if the CDA are suddenly back. See also:

CDA leader Buma made a strong impression in last week's tv debate in which both Rutte and Wilders were absent. Because of that, he started to receive some good press and attention and gained momentum. In tonight's debate, Rutte and Buma will both be present but Wilders will stay home again.

Klaver strong? In the individual section I thought he was very weak and nervous. Thieme: my thought exactly! I just said here: she looks really drunk!

[Zinneke]

Sadly can't watch it because all the links are not working for me, but listening at it and Krol is getting insane amounts of applause? Is the Carré some kind of retirement home.

[mgop]

Can we say that CDA growth of poll support is somehow connected to the Buma? Or rather poor campaign by Rutte?

its connected with buma sounding more and more like wilders

[Dutch Conservative]

Can we say that CDA growth of poll support is somehow connected to the Buma? Or rather poor campaign by Rutte?

its connected with buma sounding more and more like wilders

True, the Balkenende effect revisited.

[DavidB.]

Well, that was interesting. Buma and Roemer were very strong and convincing. Klaver clearly did better than in the first debate: he seemed more confident and said exactly what his base loves. Krol will have stopped the bleeding and may have hurt the PVV, though his last section on the EU, in which he started rambling about pensions and declined to answer the question, was weak. Pechtold was solid as always, but didn't manage to shine as much as in the previous debate. He was strongest when attacking Rutte on his track record on the EU: "talking like a PVV politician in The Hague, governing like a D66 politician in Brussels. Might as well elect a D66 politician in the first place." Rutte didn't do that badly and remains one of the strongest debaters on the stage on paper, but got dissed for real by Klaver, Roemer and Pechtold on the EU, elderly care and his credibility. Rutte got to snipe at the PVV in the one-on-one section with Matroos, but that may not enough, and if any potential PVV voters decided to leave the party tonight they may very well be inclined to vote for the CDA rather than for the VVD. The most bizarre moment was when Rutte babbled about new leadership being required -- in that case, why vote for the PM of the last six years? Unconvincing. Asscher was weak and has won absolutely zilch tonight. Thieme started okay but ended simply unhinged. I was very surprised how weak a debater she turned out to be while having a lot of experience in parliament and doing fine there.

[DavidB.]

Klaver strong? In the individual section I thought he was very weak and nervous. Thieme: my thought exactly! I just said here: she looks really drunk!

This debate would have been much more interesting with Wilders instead of Thieme (though I'm kinda glad he didn't get the Diana Matroos treatment -- it did seem, though, as if she was softer on the latter four candidates?). Klaver again looked nervous but his answers were very clear, he hit the exact right note that his potential voters want to hear, he even surprisingly roasted Rutte on increasing the economic position of the elderly, and I wouldn't be surprised if the media started pushing Klavermentum again after tonight. The irony of Rutte's retort to Klaver that "not everything is about the economy" was also stunning. Perhaps he intended to be joking, but it came across as if he was serious and as a ridiculous thing for him to say.

[DavidB.]

New peil.nl poll (conducted today, so post-debate) shows no changes in the seat distribution yet, but this took a few days after last debate too. Only 19% watched the debate. 68% say the debate will have no effect on their vote, 24% are more certain about their vote, 4% are less certain and another 4% consider to vote for another party now. 75% of PVV voters say that the debate will not affect their vote, another 21% say they are more certain about their choice for the PVV despite Wilders not being present: it seems Wilders does not have to fear a sudden exodus to the CDA right now. After losing so many seats over the course of the last weeks they may now be close to their floor already.

First question: who did well? Second question: who lost? (multiple options possible for both)

Surprised to see Roemer so low on the question on who did well; the answers to the "who lost?" question are as expected (and pretty damning for the PvdA). Figures to watch: 44% of PVV voters say Krol did well. Only 52% of PvdD voters think Thieme did well.

I think that based on these polls a two-horse race seems less likely. Buma may get a small bump but perhaps not enough momentum to really create a two-horse race with the VVD.