Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Beezer]

Just priceless...



Feels like a YouTube comments section is now running Turkey.

[jeron]

If CDA ends up first, they should make a coalition with VVD, PVV, 50+ and SGP (it has the majority of seats). I suppose that some "deceived" PVV and 50+ would vote for them for the next election, consolidating their place as first party.

That's not going to happen and if CDA does decide to do it, the next election would be a total disaster for CDA, like the 2012 election.

It was a total disaster for the CDA because they were the minor coalition partner, it would have been totally different if they were the leading coalition party.

It was a disaster because many CDA members and voters did not want CDA to cooperate with PVV. So when they did, the party was divided. The party would be even more divided right now because of what happened in 2012 and because CDA vowed not to cooperate with PVV again. I'm sure voters would not be forgiving.

[freek]

LISS poll:



(daily poll, poll result is the average of the last 7 days).

[Tender Branson]

Tender's prediction:

27 seats - VVD
25 seats - PVV
24 seats - CDA
17 seats - D66
15 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
11 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  2 seats - PvdD
  3 seats - Others

Turnout: 73.2% (-1.4)

[DavidB.]

My current expectation would be VVD 25, CDA 22, PVV 22, D66 19, GL 18, SP 15, PvdA 11, CU 5, 50Plus 5, SGP 3, PvdD 3, DENK 1, FvD 1 with ~72% turnout, but I'll wait until after Tuesday night's debate before making a final prediction.

On the diplomatic row with Turkey it is worth noting that according to Bild, Rutte had requested that Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu only visit the Netherlands after our election on Wednesday, which means Rutte's supposedly principled opposition to Turkish politicians campaigning in the Netherlands was about as valuable or sincere as his broken promises in 2012.

[mvd10]

My current prediction is this:

VVD 28
PVV 23
CDA 21
GroenLinks 18
D66 17
SP 12
PvdA 12
CU 6
SGP 4
PvdD 3
50PLUS 3
Others 3

I think tonight's debate and the row with Turkey will help the VVD and to a lesser extent the PVV. But like David I'll wait until after the debates before I make a final decision.

[jaichind]

Tender's prediction:

27 seats - VVD
25 seats - PVV
24 seats - CDA
17 seats - D66
15 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
11 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  2 seats - PvdD
  3 seats - Others

Turnout: 73.2% (-1.4)

You think between FvD and DENK can win 3 seats?  I can see DENK winning a seat, I would think FvD voters would end up voting tactically for VVD.

[Bumaye]

It's time for predictions already? Well, here we go:  
  
  
VVD: 27 Seats  
PVV: 23 Seats  
CDA: 21 Seats  
GL: 19 Seats  
D66: 19 Seats  
SP: 15 Seats  
PvdA: 10 Seats  
50+: 4 Seats  
CU: 4 Seats  
SGP: 3 Seats  
PvdD: 3 Seats  
DENK: 1 Seat  
FvD: 1 Seat  

[DavidB.]

Tender's prediction:

27 seats - VVD
25 seats - PVV
24 seats - CDA
17 seats - D66
15 seats - SP
14 seats - GL
11 seats - PvdA
  5 seats - CU
  4 seats - 50+
  3 seats - SGP
  2 seats - PvdD
  3 seats - Others

Turnout: 73.2% (-1.4)

You think between FvD and DENK can win 3 seats?  I can see DENK winning a seat, I would think FvD voters would end up voting tactically for VVD.

Almost nobody who currently intends to vote FvD is going to end up voting for the VVD; at the point where people vote FvD they've long passed the point where they could still vote VVD. It is much more likely these people end up voting PVV after the final debate if Wilders does well. DENK winning two seats doesn't seem such a strange prediction to me. Surely Erdogan-supporting Turks will be inclined to vote DENK right now, and they may be underpolled too. Of course, VNL could win a seat too. I oppose including an "others" category and would instead prefer for people to make separate predictions for the parties that are around 0.67%, makes it more fun

[jaichind]

Even though I do not know that much about Netherlands politics, here is my

VVD  28
PVV  24
CDA  19
D66  18
GL    16
PvdA 13
SP    13
CU     6
SGP   5
50+   4
PvdD  3
DENK 1

[DavidB.]

Just priceless...



Feels like a YouTube comments section is now running Turkey.

Everyone acquainted with Dutch politics knows that Wilders is into cats instead


^ with his feral friend Lola (RIP)

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday in Rotterdam and Amsterdam:

Violent Turks kicking Dutch police officers on the ground while chanting "Allah is great !" and holding Turkish flags and chanting slogans in support of their fanboy and dictator Erdogan, while verbally and physically abusing their home country Netherlands ...

[MAINEiac4434]

Yesterday in Rotterdam and Amsterdam:

Violent Turks kicking Dutch police officers on the ground while chanting "Allah is great !" and holding Turkish flags and chanting slogans in support of their fanboy and dictator Erdogan, while verbally and physically abusing their home country Netherlands ...

What is this 5th column still doing there ? Get the f**k out of Holland and back to Turkey, where you fu**ing a**holes belong !

Stop helping wilders ffs

[windjammer]

My prediction: PVV will get 76 seats

[SunSt0rm]

My current prediction, but I will wait for the debate of tonight and tomorrow and possible any polls after the clash with Turkey to give a definite prediction

VVD 27
PVV 24
CDA 19
GL 17
D66 16
SP 14
PvdA 12
CU 6
50+ 5
PvvD 4
SGP 3
Denk 2
FvD 1

[SunSt0rm]

Oh, first poll after diplomatic crisis with Turkey, hardly any changes. There is a chance the PvdA will get single digits lol

EenVandaag
VVD 24
PVV 24
CDA 21 (+1)
D66 16
GL 16
SP 16 (+1)
PvdA 10 (-2)
CU 7
PvdD 5 (+1)
50+ 5
SGP 3
Denk 1
Fvd 1
PP 1
VNL 0 (-1)

58% are certain of their vote, 32% doubt between several parties, 11% have no idea yet

[jaichind]

Liberals, Freedom Party Stable at 24 Seats in I&O Survey
(Bloomberg) -- Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberal Party on 24 seats in Wednesday’s election while Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party tied with the Greens on 20 seats, according to I&O Research poll
Liberal Party and Freedom Party unchanged from March 7 poll, Greens gain 3 seats
Christian Democrats gain one seat to 17
Labor loses one seat to 13, D66 loses 2 seats to 18
Diplomatic standoff between Turkey and The Netherlands largely not reflected in poll due to timing

Liberals, Freedom Party Tied at 24 Seats Each in EenVandaag Poll
(Bloomberg) -- Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberal Party and Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party both set win 24 seats in Wednesday’s elections, according to a GfK poll published by Dutch TV show EenVandaag on Monday, unchanged from March 6 poll.
Christian Democrats gain 1 seat to 21 seats and would become third largest party
Labor Party loses 2 seats to 10, Socialists gain 1 seat to 16
Greens and D66 both unchanged at 16 seats each
This is the last EenVandaag poll before the elections

[Tender Branson]

I think GL's polling numbers are a bubble that won't fully materialize on election day.

14-16 maybe, but probably not 20 seats.

Up from 4 in 2012.

[ApatheticAustrian]

how realistic is a "wilders-less" center-right government atm?

i don't know which of the smaller parties, which are going to gain a few seats, would join a liberal/christ-democrat government either than a center-left/left-ish one.

[DavidB.]

EenVandaag: VVD 24 (-), PvdA 10 (-2), PVV 24 (-), CDA 21 (+1), SP 16 (+1), GL 16 (-), D66 16 (-), CU 7 (-), SGP 3 (-), PvdD 5 (+1), 50Plus 5 (-), VNL 0 (-1), Piratenpartij 1 (-), DENK 1 (-), FvD 1 (-).

58% of voters have decided, 32% still consider several options, 11% don't have a preference at all yet.

I&O: VVD 24 (-), PVV 20 (-), GL 20 (+3), D66 18 (-2), CDA 17 (+1), SP 14 (-), PvdA 13 (-1), PvdD 6 (-), CU 5 (-), 50Plus 4 (-1), SGP 3 (-1), DENK 3 (+1), FvD 2 (-), PP 1 (+1), VNL 0 (-1)

I was skeptical about the PP, but there may be something going on here. According to I&O, 70% are still undecided and 30% are sure about their choice. 13% have no idea, 30% have a preference but aren't sure yet, 57% are undecided between two parties.

how realistic is a "wilders-less" center-right government atm?

i don't know which of the smaller parties, which are going to gain a few seats, would join a liberal/christ-democrat government either than a center-left/left-ish one.

If VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP receive a majority, a minority coalition of the former four supported by the latter would be a serious option -- difficult for D66, but it should be possible. If not, VVD-CDA-D66-GL or VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA will be the most likely options. No government will include the PVV.

[freek]

how realistic is a "wilders-less" center-right government atm?

i don't know which of the smaller parties, which are going to gain a few seats, would join a liberal/christ-democrat government either than a center-left/left-ish one.

My guess is 90+% for a VVD/CDA/D66/?? coalition. ?? could be GL or CU or PvdA. Chances of PVV in the coalition is 0.

[SunSt0rm]

De Hond poll does see a changes in its poll

VVD 27 (+3)
PVV 24 (+2)
CDA 21 (-1)
GL 19 (-1)
D66 16 (-1)
SP 14 (-1)
PvdA 9
CU 5
50+ 4 (-1)
PvvD 4
SGP 3
Denk 2
FvD 2

https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2017-03-13.pdf

[DavidB.]

The one-on-one debate in EenVandaag between Rutte and Wilders will start in 5 minutes.

Excellent Peil poll. Hoping that one is true.

[SunSt0rm]

A new coalition will almost certaintly consist of VVD+CDA+D66 plus a combination of PvdA, GL or/and CU. In addition SGP can always give outside support if necessary

[freek]

A new coalition will almost certaintly consist of VVD+CDA+D66 plus a combination of PvdA, GL or/and CU. In addition SGP can always give outside support if necessary

Yes, SGP in government would be unacceptable for D66 and VVD.