Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[SunSt0rm]

My current prediction, but I will wait for the debate of tonight and tomorrow and possible any polls after the clash with Turkey to give a definite prediction

VVD 27
PVV 24
CDA 19
GL 17
D66 16
SP 14
PvdA 12
CU 6
50+ 5
PvvD 4
SGP 3
Denk 2
FvD 1

[SunSt0rm]

Oh, first poll after diplomatic crisis with Turkey, hardly any changes. There is a chance the PvdA will get single digits lol

EenVandaag
VVD 24
PVV 24
CDA 21 (+1)
D66 16
GL 16
SP 16 (+1)
PvdA 10 (-2)
CU 7
PvdD 5 (+1)
50+ 5
SGP 3
Denk 1
Fvd 1
PP 1
VNL 0 (-1)

58% are certain of their vote, 32% doubt between several parties, 11% have no idea yet

[jaichind]

Liberals, Freedom Party Stable at 24 Seats in I&O Survey
(Bloomberg) -- Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberal Party on 24 seats in Wednesday’s election while Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party tied with the Greens on 20 seats, according to I&O Research poll
Liberal Party and Freedom Party unchanged from March 7 poll, Greens gain 3 seats
Christian Democrats gain one seat to 17
Labor loses one seat to 13, D66 loses 2 seats to 18
Diplomatic standoff between Turkey and The Netherlands largely not reflected in poll due to timing

Liberals, Freedom Party Tied at 24 Seats Each in EenVandaag Poll
(Bloomberg) -- Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberal Party and Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party both set win 24 seats in Wednesday’s elections, according to a GfK poll published by Dutch TV show EenVandaag on Monday, unchanged from March 6 poll.
Christian Democrats gain 1 seat to 21 seats and would become third largest party
Labor Party loses 2 seats to 10, Socialists gain 1 seat to 16
Greens and D66 both unchanged at 16 seats each
This is the last EenVandaag poll before the elections

[Tender Branson]

I think GL's polling numbers are a bubble that won't fully materialize on election day.

14-16 maybe, but probably not 20 seats.

Up from 4 in 2012.

[ApatheticAustrian]

how realistic is a "wilders-less" center-right government atm?

i don't know which of the smaller parties, which are going to gain a few seats, would join a liberal/christ-democrat government either than a center-left/left-ish one.

[DavidB.]

EenVandaag: VVD 24 (-), PvdA 10 (-2), PVV 24 (-), CDA 21 (+1), SP 16 (+1), GL 16 (-), D66 16 (-), CU 7 (-), SGP 3 (-), PvdD 5 (+1), 50Plus 5 (-), VNL 0 (-1), Piratenpartij 1 (-), DENK 1 (-), FvD 1 (-).

58% of voters have decided, 32% still consider several options, 11% don't have a preference at all yet.

I&O: VVD 24 (-), PVV 20 (-), GL 20 (+3), D66 18 (-2), CDA 17 (+1), SP 14 (-), PvdA 13 (-1), PvdD 6 (-), CU 5 (-), 50Plus 4 (-1), SGP 3 (-1), DENK 3 (+1), FvD 2 (-), PP 1 (+1), VNL 0 (-1)

I was skeptical about the PP, but there may be something going on here. According to I&O, 70% are still undecided and 30% are sure about their choice. 13% have no idea, 30% have a preference but aren't sure yet, 57% are undecided between two parties.

how realistic is a "wilders-less" center-right government atm?

i don't know which of the smaller parties, which are going to gain a few seats, would join a liberal/christ-democrat government either than a center-left/left-ish one.

If VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP receive a majority, a minority coalition of the former four supported by the latter would be a serious option -- difficult for D66, but it should be possible. If not, VVD-CDA-D66-GL or VVD-CDA-D66-PvdA will be the most likely options. No government will include the PVV.

[freek]

how realistic is a "wilders-less" center-right government atm?

i don't know which of the smaller parties, which are going to gain a few seats, would join a liberal/christ-democrat government either than a center-left/left-ish one.

My guess is 90+% for a VVD/CDA/D66/?? coalition. ?? could be GL or CU or PvdA. Chances of PVV in the coalition is 0.

[SunSt0rm]

De Hond poll does see a changes in its poll

VVD 27 (+3)
PVV 24 (+2)
CDA 21 (-1)
GL 19 (-1)
D66 16 (-1)
SP 14 (-1)
PvdA 9
CU 5
50+ 4 (-1)
PvvD 4
SGP 3
Denk 2
FvD 2

https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2017-03-13.pdf

[DavidB.]

The one-on-one debate in EenVandaag between Rutte and Wilders will start in 5 minutes.

Excellent Peil poll. Hoping that one is true.

[SunSt0rm]

A new coalition will almost certaintly consist of VVD+CDA+D66 plus a combination of PvdA, GL or/and CU. In addition SGP can always give outside support if necessary

[freek]

A new coalition will almost certaintly consist of VVD+CDA+D66 plus a combination of PvdA, GL or/and CU. In addition SGP can always give outside support if necessary

Yes, SGP in government would be unacceptable for D66 and VVD.

[ApatheticAustrian]

may i ask what's the special thing about SGP...hardcore religious "nuts" in the kind of the israeli religious parties?

[Zanas]

Even without the recent unfortunate Turkish events, I would have predicted that the PVV was being underpolled because, come on, that's just the period we live in, isn't it? The most awful candidates and ideas tend to do well on election day compared to polling these days. Or maybe it's just a cognitive bias? I don't think it is.

So with the recent unfortunate Turkish events, I'm going to say the PVV will get even more of an election day boost and end up in first place with close to, if not, 30 seats. SP will lose a couple of their 15 seats, and GL won't be anywhere near 20 seats, more like 12. The rest I have no idea and frankly don't care.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i totally agree and understand the "evil right-wing populists are underpolled all the time"-narrative but after brexit and trump the honesty should rise, imho and wilders is not really an outsider anymore, more like a strange uncle of establishment, imho.

and the fall of wilders' party ..which led for a long time...has real, logical reasons, which could be explained.

[Tender Branson]

I guess, as we have seen in Austria, people tend to be more careful voting for the far-right populist parties after the Trump victory because they don't want a disaster like Trump in their countries and fear for the reputation of their countries.

On the other hand, the Turkish agitation obviously mobilizes the PVV.

I guess it will be a wash and the PVV will end up close to what polling shows, maybe slightly higher or slightly lower ...

[MAINEiac4434]

may i ask what's the special thing about SGP...hardcore religious "nuts" in the kind of the israeli religious parties?

Borderline theocrats. Didn't allow women into leadership rolls for a long, long time.

[DavidB.]

may i ask what's the special thing about SGP...hardcore religious "nuts" in the kind of the israeli religious parties?

They are officially theocrats and don't have women on their list. In Israel the religious parties have always governed, both with the right and with the left. The SGP never did that and could support a government from the outside, but will not enter one.

[DavidB.]

The debate between Rutte and Wilders was great. I think Wilders had the upper hand but am obviously extremely biased.

[Zinneke]

may i ask what's the special thing about SGP...hardcore religious "nuts" in the kind of the israeli religious parties?

Borderline theocrats. Didn't allow women into leadership rolls for a long, long time.

Look up Urk as (an albeit extreme) version of what their base looks like.

[mvd10]

The SGP didn't include repealing gay marriage and reinstating the death penalty in their platform, which was seen as a sign that they would like to have a more prominent role (most likely giving outside support to a minority coalition). And the SGP also worked with a VVD-PvdA coalition on some issues so I think they could agree to give outside support to a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition as long as progressive legislation on abortion and euthanasia will be blocked (if the CDA and CU haven't already demanded that).

I also think Wilders had the upper hand, but it wasn't a big victory for Wilders imo.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, outside support wouldn't be a problem, but outright government participation is not going to happen. Agree on the debate, certainly no big win. Rutte hurt Wilders most by going on about his Qur'an ban proposal. Excellent example of how Wilders shot himself in the foot by moving too far to the right. I'm not convinced yet and will likely be undecided until election day, but expect myself to end up voting for FvD.

[freek]

The SGP didn't include repealing gay marriage and reinstating the death penalty in their platform, which was seen as a sign that they would like to have a more prominent role (most likely giving outside support to a minority coalition). And the SGP also worked with a VVD-PvdA coalition on some issues so I think they could agree to give outside support to a VVD-CDA-D66-CU coalition as long as progressive legislation on abortion and euthanasia will be blocked (if the CDA and CU haven't already demanded that).

Yes. Also on their list of demands will be some kind of income tax reform (the current system disadvantages families with a single income), and something that would help farmers and fishermen. Subsidies, or less bureaucracy

[Zinneke]

I'm wondering how long the Dutch posters here give the potential coalition above, given that the VVD-PvdA government is the first one to see out its term fully since the Wim Kok years, right?

[freek]

I'm wondering how long the Dutch posters here give the potential coalition above, given that the VVD-PvdA government is the first one to see out its term fully since the Wim Kok years, right?

Yes, the first since 1998 (or 2002, the coalition resigned a few weeks before the elections).

I don't really see how a coalition with both VVD and GL, or both CU and D66 might survive, unless the coalition agreement allows parties to opt out sometimes. 

[DavidB.]

I'm going to be cautious, because a lot of people thought the VVD-PvdA government would collapse soon too. The more interesting and imminent question is how long the government formation will take. Will we have a government before the German general election takes place?