European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Former President tack50]

Not directly related to the election, but today Emmanuel Macron published an open letter in newspapers all across the EU. Here's the English version (published by the Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/04/europe-brexit-uk

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so today El Mundo over here published a poll with several questions relating to the EU, done in 7 countries: Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Poland and Austria. Unfortunately, it's only in Spanish and quite long to translate, but still I guess I'll translate the winners of the most interesting questions IMO:

2: What are your country's biggest problems?

Italy: Unemployment (48%)
France: Lower salaries and purchasing power (34%)
Spain: Unemployment (54%)
Germany: Greater social inequality (35%)
Austria: Inmigration (39%)
Poland: Healthcare cuts (21%) (This one seems weird)

3: Some people believe that to see real change a revolution is needed. Others, that a reform program is better. Which one do you agree with the most?

(Reforms-Revolution-No change)

Italy: 69-21-3
France: 50-39-3
Spain: 80-13-3
Germany: 57-20-6
Austria: 62-14-3
Poland: 81-14-1

4: Regarding the following actions the EU could take on inmigration, which one do you agree with the most?

(Redistributing inmigrants along the EU and promoting integration - Greater border control and closing the door to illegal inmigration - None of the above)

Italy: 50-39-7
France: 26-54-13
Spain: 55-25-16
Germany: 34-48-7
Austria: 28-58-8
Poland: 26-63-6

5: Is there a strong conflict between citizens and politicians?
(Yes, strong+very strong; No, it's weak; no conflict)

Italy: 67-16-5
France: 82-7-2
Spain: 73-10-10
Germany: 66-16-3
Austria: 64-18-3
Poland: 50-25-4

6: According to you, the future of the EU should be:
(Strong integration and the United States of Europe - Strong integration according to what each country picks but with separate national governments - Greater autonomy for each member state with a return to national currencies but keeping free movement of people and goods - The end of the EU)

Or in other words: United States of Europe - Greater integration, like the status quo - "Europe of nations but don't break the EU" - Break the EU

Italy: 28-33-21-8
France: 15-35-18-17
Spain: 30-37-15-7
Germany: 18-41-14-11
Austria: 16-41-16-13
Poland: 13-32-41-7

7: If your government put in place protectionist measures, this would be:

(Generally negative - Generally positive - Mix of both)

Italy: 37-25-24
France: 30-27-28
Spain: 21-24-36
Germany: 33-16-30
Austria: 32-20-30
Poland: 29-33-26

8: Do you agree with the sentence "(Your nationality) First"?

(Totally/Partially agree - Totally/Partially disagree)

Italy: 64-32
France: 79-17
Spain: 48-46
Germany: 65-27
Austria: 78-18
Poland: 79-15

9: How close do you feel to populism?
(Close/very close - Far/very far)

Italy: 28-55
France: 31-50
Spain: 18-67
Germany: 16-56
Austria: 13-59
Poland: 16-64

10: What about sovereigntism?
(Close/Very close - Far/Very far)

Italy: 20-64
France: 24-56
Spain: 34-50
Germany: 45-28
Austria: 48-26
Poland: 70-18

11: What about nationalism?

Italy: 31-54
France: 41-41
Spain: 30-56
Germany: 23-55
Austria: 25-51
Poland: 17-67

Full poll: https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2019/03/07/5c80055f21efa0a6278b458b.html

[Former President tack50]

They also published voter intention polls for each of those 6 countries. Not sure how understandable they'll be but whatever, I think this can be understood? (even if party names are translated)

[Former President tack50]

Europe should be more like Spain imo

Saving this for the day PP-Cs-Vox is formed

Same

I mean, looking at the poll results, they are surprising but not overwhelmingly so.

Spain has always been more pro EU and pro inmigrant than average.

The rejected EU constitution passed 82-18 over here after all, albeit under abysmal turnout (43%). France rejected it 45-55 and the Netherlands rejected it 38-62). Even Luxembourg (a country you would never expect to be anti-EU in any way) only gave it a 57-43 vote! 67% support for further integration seems accurate.

The rise of Vox isn't based on inmigration as much as it is based on Catalonia (though inmigration is still a big platform issue, but not the main driving force for their initial rise I think). According to this same poll, inmigration is only a worry for 6% of Spaniards, compared to 15% of Italians, 23% of French, 30% of Germans or 39% of Austrians.

The fact that the question "Do you agree with "Spaniards first"? is a very divisive 48-46 is extremely telling.

Its interesting that Spain is a little bit of a pro-EU, anti-populist outlier. Probably has something to do with Catalonia and other Separatists effect on the national culture, since none of the other countries polled have a national issue quite like Catalonia.

I peronally find suprising the populist question considering first the rise of Podemos and now the rise of Vox. Not sure about the Catalonia relation but I guess it could be a factor. Could also be a factor for some of the inmigration questions, particularly the nationalism one.

The poll didn't publish proper crosstabs but one of the interesting things the article said is that Catalan/Basque nationalists do agree with nationalism as much as PP/Cs/Vox voters.

[Former President tack50]

Spain

Carles Puidemont, the ousted Catalan premier, will run in EP elections, on the top of the JvCAT list (Junts per Catalunya, Together for Catalonia)

https://www.politico.eu/article/puigdemont-carles-former-catalan-leader-to-run-in-eu-election-may/

According to Spanish polls, ERC is currently well ahead of the JxCAT/PDeCAT rivals.

Worth noting that there is already a precedent for this.

In 1989 businessman Jose Maria Ruiz Mateos was elected to the European parliament and got immunity even though he was under search and capture.

[Former President tack50]

Regarding the effect of the Danish elections being on the same day, by far the largest will be the increased turnout (in Denmark's case, I expect it to go from the mid 50s to the low 80s)

This EU election seems certain to have higher turnout than 2014. I do not think it will pass 50%, but it will be around 48-49%; probably the highest since 1999.

[Former President tack50]

Wait, does that mean Korwin-Mikke will be (back) in the EU parliament? Can't wait to listen to his controversial statements again, particularly against some woman MEP from PSOE (they seem to be arch-enemies or something lol)

[Former President tack50]

Best campaign slogan IMO "Jesus Yes, EU No"

[Former President tack50]

CDS has gone crazy...

https://twitter.com/_CDSPP/status/1122465797216059392

We can not pretend that when Europe is imploding, when migrations are the theme that is most destroying its foundations, alongside with corruption, we'll put the issue aside and not talk about it just because we can be glued to whoever it is. @NunoMeloCDS # aEuropaishere

At the same time, PSD is also isolating CDS: Vox is a "radical-right" party and has no place in EPP.

Wait, I thought CDS was trying to appear moderate? What happened to that?

I've certainly never thought about CDS as a right wing populist party like say Vox is (or AfD, or Lega, etc).

Is trying to become such a party a dead end and counter-productive in Portugal? (leading to results similar to our PP yesterday) Or is there a real opening for a right wing populist party there?

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so apparently the parties that will run in Spain for the European Elections were actually published a couple of days ago, though of course with the general election hangover no one really noticed.

Anyways, here they are. As I usually do, parties that actually have a chance at getting a seat go first and in colour, while parties that won't get a seat no matter what go later and in black. As per the order the election authorities established (not like it matters):

Coalición por una Europa Solidaria (CEUS)
Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE)
Ahora Repúblicas
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal (PACMA)
Compromís per Europa / Compromiso por Europa (CPE)
Unidas Podemos Cambiar Europa (Podemos-IU)
Ciudadanos-Partido de la ciudadanía (Cs)
Lliures per Europa (JUNTS)
VOX (VOX)
Partido Popular (PP)

Iniciativa Feminista (I.Fem)
Alternativa Republicana (ALTER)
Centristas por Europa (CxE)
Contigo Somos Democracia (CONTIGO)
FE de las JONS, Alternativa Española, La Falange, Democracia Nacional (ADÑ)
Solidaridad y Autogestión Internacionalista (SAIn)
Partido Comunista de los Trabajadores de España (PCTE)
Foro de Ciudadanos (FAC)
Partido Humanista (PH)
Andalucía por el Sí (AxSí)
Actúa (PACT)
Movimiento Independiente Euro Latino (MIEL)
Izquierda en Positivo (IZQP)
PCPE-PCPC-PCPA (PCPE)
Por un Mundo más Justo (PUM+J)
Movimiento Corriente Roja (MCR)
Igualdad Real (IGRE)
Pirates de Catalunya - European Pirates (pirates.cat/ep)
Volt Europa (VOLT)
Coalición Verde-Europa Ciudadana (LV-EC)
Recortes Cero-Los Verdes-Grupo Verde Europeo (RECORTES CERO-LV-GVE)
Extremeños-Prex-Crex (CEX-PREX-CREX)

So we will have a total of 31 parties running, though only 10 have a chance at getting seats

Of the lists that won't get a seat, the most interesting ones in my opinion are

ADÑ: A coalition of various far-right parties, including Franco's old party! (FE-JONS). Led by Ricardo Sáenz de Ynestrillas, the son of a general who was involved in a coup attempt in 1980 and was later murdered by ETA; and has been a large figure in the Spanish far right for a long time now.

MIEL: Some sort of special interests party for Latin American inmigrants in Europe

Volt Europa: Some sort of pan-European party which seems to be running in several countries under a single platform and the same name. Pretty nice to see tbh.

Arrangement of the regional parties

As per usual, since they won't reach enough seats individually, regional parties have had to form coalitions (the ones that didn't won't even get 0.05% of the vote). The coalitions this time around are:

Coalición por una Europa Solidaria: Basque PNV+Canarian CC+Balearic Islands PI+Galician CxG+Valencian DV. Only the first 3 actually have seats in their regional assemblies. CxG has a handful of councillors but no actual regional presence and DV has pretty much nothing.

Ahora Repúblicas: Catalan ERC+Basque Bildu+Galician BNG+Aragonese Puyalón+Asturian Andecha Astur+Canarian Ahora Canarias. The first 3 actually have seats in their regional assemblies and will actually bring in decent amounts of votes. The last 3 are fringe secessionist parties from their respective regions

Compromiso por Europa: Valencian Compromís+Canarian NCa+Balearic Islands Més+Aragon ChA+Ceuta Coalición Caballas+Melilla CpM+Galician En Marea+Castillian PC-TC+Andalusian Iniciativa Andalucista. The first 6 actually have seats in their regional assemblies, though Compromís will be by far the largest vote bringer. En Marea is a Podemos split. PC-TC and IA are both fringe nationalist parties from their respective regions (yes, Castillian nationalists do exist lol).

The thing about this one is that pretty much everyone on this list had a horrible election night in the general election, with Compromís getting a measly 1 seat while NCa was completely shut out of parliament. Of all the nationalist lists, this one seems by far the least likely to get a seat

Lliures per Europa: Puigdemont's vanity list, pretty much de facto endorsed by JxCat (though they are contesting the election as an independent list? Idk). Puigdemont himself was going to run, but the election authorities barred him from running at the last minute. His face will appear on the election ballot though lol.

[Former President tack50]

Here are my Dutch results



I guess I am DavidB's political opposite Also lol at Jezus Leeft above VVD.

Looking at Volt topping the list, since they are running here as well I am very seriously considering voting for them. I guess if I'm going to waste my vote, I may as well waste it for good. (the party I was considering looks unlikely to get seats either)

[Former President tack50]

My results for the 2 tests:

Danish test: Agreed most with 3 people from Radikale Venestre (including the top pick at 79%), one from Alternativet and one from the Socialist People's Party (SF).

Agreed least with someone from the people's movement against the EU, probably because of my pro-EU positions.

Austrian test: Agreed most with NEOS (160) followed by Grüne (138) and SPÖ (128). Only parties in negative are ÖVP (-28) and FPÖ (-102)

[Former President tack50]

My results for that test

Spain

PSOE: 84%
CEUS (PNV+CC): 79%
Cs: 72%
CxE (Comp+NCa+ChA): 72%
Ahora Repúblicas (ERC+Bildu+BNG): 60%
UP: 60%
PP: 48%
Vox: 35%

Surprising to see Cs in third and well above UP. I guess the fact that Catalonia and centralism isn't an EU issue helps?

Europe at large, top 5

Progresivie (Latvia): 91%
cdH (Belgium): 89%
Vihr (Finland): 89%
Ecolo (Belgium): 87%
Initiative 1 Austria: 87%

Europe at large, bottom 5

Golden Dawn (Greece): 29%
Dansk Folkeparti (Denmark): 29%
PCTP-MRPP (Portugal): 29%
SPD (Czech Republic): 28%
Brexit Party (UK): 28%
NHR (Croatia): 20%

On an extremely interesting note, the country that agrees with me the most is Latvia while the one that agrees the least is Lithuania lol

[Former President tack50]

Hilarious expectations management from the Conservatives, who have decided to not bother even attempting a campaign or provide funding for their candidates because it would be embarrassing to lose after trying: they are musing they might come behind the Greens. This might be an interesting experiment though: how important are cadre really? Because you can bet no Tory activist is bothering with this one.

RIP Conservative and Unionist Party (1834-2019).

[Former President tack50]

GAD3 poll for the EU elections in Spain

PSOE: 30.3%
PP: 18.5%
Cs: 16.6%
UP: 11.4%
Vox: 7.8%

Ahora Repúblicas (ERC+Bildu+BNG): 5.0%
Lliures per Europa (JxCat's Puigdemont list): 3.0%
CEUS (PNV+CC): 1.6%
PACMA: 1.1%

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that there would be nothing stopping CU and SGP from sitting in different groups from the EU's side. We have already had a handful of examples here.

In 2014 the Coalition for Europe (CiU+PNV) elected 3 MEPs, 2 from CiU and 1 from PNV. The PNV MEP and one of the CiU ones joined ALDE while the remaining CiU MEP joined EPP.

This year, ERC (G/EFA) and Bildu (GUE/NGL) are running in a joint list as well

[Former President tack50]

Apparently this is an ad from the Bulgarian government to try and get young people to vote lol

[Former President tack50]

Unlike other times, I have been unable to find actual campaign posters for the EU elections (which are barely given attention compared to the local/regional elections). So instead here are some TV/Youtube ads. Again, many look like they are not intended for TV or are proper ads, but closest thing I was able to find. Also I won't be able to find from all parties, but here it goes:

PSOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_q7G9eLJ6M
PP*: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31d3zsZ9TsM
Cs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOB9PavW3oc
UP: https://youtu.be/Y6z9Bz2qDj8
Vox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDGuEFHKhkg
PACMA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQi9SpmdmIk

ERC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaK0aXjxpyU
JxCat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSSxsVf-4OU
PNV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=011qWTCJHik
EH Bildu²: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ia0dULdudmw
Compromís³: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ql4Moxdos3k

Only party with representation in the national Congress that isn't running an ad is CC. PRC as well, but they aren't running or supporting any coalition in the EU elections. Also I am doubtful about that PP ad, it definitely doesn't look like a TV ad unlike the others

*; maybe not a proper ad
2: Generic ad about the "Ahora Repúblicas" coalition
3: Generic ad about the "Compromiso por Europa" coalition

Regarding these ads, the most surprising thing is probably seeing ERC running ads in Spanish at all! (though I imagine the main one is the one in Catalan).

[Former President tack50]

FPÖ-leader Strache has just resigned all his offices in a press statement.

This changes everything, all polls taken in Austria until now are meaningless.

I could see the FPÖ dropping to as low as 10-15% next Sunday ...

https://orf.at/stories/3122863

Any reason why? From a tactical perspective it would have been a lot better to resign after the election.

Was he corrupt or had a scandal?

[Former President tack50]

Portugal: Some divisions in the PS about a future PES+ALDE alliance in the EP.

António Costa's recent dinner with Emmanuel Macron and his "wink" to the liberals in the EP parliament, is creating some discomfort in some parts of the PS. Pedro Nuno Santos, minister of infrastructures and one of the possible successors of Costa as PS leader, says that Liberals and Socialists should never aligned and they should always be in separate sides. A statement that contradicts what Costa said alongside Macron, i which he said that the Socialists should "create a big alliance between democrats and progressives". 

I don't think the S&D and ALDE will merge. And as for an alliance, the EU has been controled by a Grand coalition of S&D-ALDE-EPP pretty much forever.

Though I do wonder if the Portuguese PS might be one of the more left wing groups in the S&D group

[Former President tack50]

As a Commonwealth citizen, voting for the Brexit Party today.

Wait, Commonwealth citizens can vote in EU elections? I thought that was reserved to British and EU citizens?

[Former President tack50]

Turnout at 5:30 was 24%, on par with 2014.

Sad.

I was hoping for a Europe-wide uptick in the turnout numbers.

But if it's not the case in the Netherlands, it probably is not the case anywhere else ... (except maybe for the UK and Austria, where the Brexit and recent Ibiza-Gate dominates).

For what's worth, there will be a massive uptick in turnout here in Spain, but only because the EU elections are the same day as the local elections (which usually have around 60-65% turnout compared to 40-45% for the EU elections)

[Former President tack50]

Nice to see Sanchez's Megacoattails helping the left across Europe and country borders

[Former President tack50]

Amazing map:

Europe from Left to Right
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2019-05/elections-in-europe-eu-countries-results-map-english

So PiS is far-right but Fidesz is merely conservative?

I think they went (partially) with EU groups. So PiS=ECR=Far Right while Fidesz=EPP=centre-right

Of course they did put the Tories on centre-right anyways

[Former President tack50]

turnout was record high...

Sure, but still about 20 points lower than in a GE, and I suspect many of those are working-class potential DF voters.

So no much change from the General Election other than a Vox drop?