CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CA_Talks/status/1434329635412529161?s=20

Also in the thread they note that those who support ousting Newsom are more likely to go later, either voting this coming week or day of.

[Oryxslayer]

Who might Newsom face in 2022, a House Republican who gets drawn out?

I know this is ERM attention trolling, but I'm responding to turn it in a different direction. I really think Newsom is more likely to face a serious primary challenger in the runoff with the recall in the rearview mirror than if it wasn't. The CA GOP has spent all their capital and Elder is going to emerge as the GOP candidate with the best image among the devout. That's a recipe for them not really caring and letting Elder get consumed by the electoral wolves. Meanwhile Newsom appears as a D governor who had to be bailed out by the national party in a blue state. He won't be challenged by anyone holding a statewide office, especially if Feinstein retires and opens up a senatorial bloodbath, but there's plenty of prominent opportunists across this big state who wouldn't mind a go when there is less danger to the overall party.

[Oryxslayer]

Has there been any word on how long it’s going to take to count the ballots?

And will results from both questions be announced together? If not, it opens up a bunch of concerning hypotheticals:

1. Elder clearly wins the most votes on the second question, but the first question is too close to call, leading to a situation reminiscent of 2020, where he runs around yelling about how the election is going to be rigged, now that he’s the one who would take over.
2. Newson is recalled, but irregularities delay announcement of the second question, throwing the state into chaos while they await announcement of the new Governor.

The two questions are on the same ballot and only fed into machines once under normal circumstances. One assumes and expects this means simultaneous release, it would under any other circumstance.

California is known now for its month-long vote counting process, but this is overblown. The majority of votes are there on election night - more do in this case thanks to the universal mail - and almost all straggler votes are counted by the next week. The month long count only matters if a race is narrow, as it is usually in races people pay attention to. Most important to projecting a race is the universe of remaining votes, and at the end of the night the counties will have an idea what that universe looks like. Decision desks then send those numbers through models and see if it is plausible for Yes - it will be Yes thanks to Trump changing voting habits and the Orange county data - to catch up. It likely will not. The situation that usually occurs is the statewide lead released on Election night immediately is proven by historical data to be insurmountable, and don't count out this also occuring, even if said lead is a little bit smaller than usual.

[Oryxslayer]

There isn't a none of these option so Elder will still carry a number of counties with odd pluralities. The variance between vote totals on the recall and the replacement questions will be wide.

I believe that counties will still list undervotes (I know Sacramento County does since I’ve looked at their detailed results in the past); they usually do. That should be a good enough proxy even if it’s not a Nevada style NOTA option.

All election reports are required to list over, under, blank, and write-in votes in final reporting. As far as election night goes, should be simple enough to do a Yes/No minus Sum(candidates) for a undervote estimate accurate to >90%.

[Oryxslayer]

Also what are the odds of the race being called for Newsom at poll closing? What would it take for that to happen?

An exit poll.

If there is no exit poll, then the closest thing to a poll closing call would be one as soon as a majority of counties drop the votes they had from before election day. Cause inherent uncertainty in a ballot measure.

[Oryxslayer]

Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and AOC all campaigning.
How many states other can you say you can have all of those people campaign for you and it be a positive?

Most Blue states, if you microtarget enough. That's one of the advantages of California's size, something unviable in most other states. A large number of area codes, media markets, and cultural differences means that you can have ads on all types of platforms in one part of the state that others will never see.

[Oryxslayer]

Why or how exactly did a state race like this get nationalized? Why is this so much more nationalized  that the NJ or VA race?

It was the Republicans. They literally shot themselves in the foot. Not that they ever had a chance, but The whole thing’s been pretty funny.

Can you explain how republicans nationalized this? It seems to me that Newsom team consisntely had non California politicians all over the news.

Also you realize anyone the GOP would have had as the front runner would have been tabled all the same things they did to elder right?

You answered your own question. The CAGOP dug its own grave and laid down in it years ago. There are precisely zero Republicans who can win California with a similar platform to the national GOP, but that's exactly what CA Republicans keep clamoring for.

Faulconer had the faintest glimmer of a chance because he hadn't drunk the Kool-Aid, and the second he started getting flak from his right flank he folded himself into a pretzel and abandoned all hope of getting any votes outside the GOP, which, mind you, is a whopping 25% of Californians.

It's the exact same story over and over and over and over again ad nauseum. The CAGOP's single brain cell realizes they can't win with Trumpism, and then is excised by the rest of the party because they're too drunk on the national GOP's Kool-Aid. Repeat until all the brain cells are gone and you have a superminority in both chambers and haven't won a row office in 10 years because your rapidly shrinking base has zero self-awareness.

Size is also something to remember here. Trump still got 6 million votes. Sure that is horrible percentage-wise, but when it comes to conventions or party gatherings, that's still a sizable force that can produce plenty of fire and fury if desired. Its not like in Massachusetts if you want to hold a MAGA group event in front of Boston city hall and get 20 people. If you hold something in LA with a similar intent you'll get a crowd driving in from their various abodes.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/lara_korte/status/1436412797517131776?s=20

The modern GOP folks.

[Oryxslayer]

I’m so excited for Tuesday so that we never have to hear about Larry Elder ever again. Maybe Newsom can expel him from the state too?

Sadly Elder seems exactly like the type of person who will believe that his domination of the recall ballot - facilitated by blank Dem votes of course - is a good platform from which to launch a Presidential campaign. His affinity with the extremists and recognition of "fraud" are two things that would play well if Trump does not run.

[Oryxslayer]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Could be.

OC is the only real interest of me for this race right now as the result is already known.

I want to see what happens in some of these D held seats in south oc.

katie porter specifically.

You do realize Newsom lost a few of the seats Dems won in 2018? And the gubernatorial elections in general - especially weird ones like this - can and do have a wider range of outcomes than the polarized national results? (though not as wide as the ginormous landslide potentials of yesteryear) I do think the district breakdown of yes/no will be interesting, but taking it any further is asking to be disappointed.

[Oryxslayer]

At what date/time do you get a final'ish result?

About 3 weeks from now, but I’d say about 75% of the votes will be reported tonight/within a couple of days. We’ll have a good idea of what’s gonna happen by the end of the night anyway.

Yeah history says about 75% of the vote is in the hands of the county boards or in dropboxes already. This should get process very fast, and in 2020 this was done in close to poll closing It will faster than 2020 cause there's only one ballot page and 2 questions, rather than 4 and 20+ different things to vote one. Then the majority of the remaining vote is E-Day or E-Day adjacent. In 2020 this took a few days to process, here it may be a case of hours because of the ballot size. The lagging vote then takes weeks, but this comparatively tiny pool only matters for tight races...which are the ones we usually pay attention to. If the race needs to wait of the long count, Newsom is in a world of danger.

[Oryxslayer]

At what date/time do you get a final'ish result?

About 3 weeks from now, but I’d say about 75% of the votes will be reported tonight/within a couple of days. We’ll have a good idea of what’s gonna happen by the end of the night anyway.

Yeah history says about 75% of the vote is in the hands of the county boards or in dropboxes already. This should get process very fast, and in 2020 this was done in close to poll closing It will faster than 2020 cause there's only one ballot page and 2 questions, rather than 4 and 20+ different things to vote one. Then the majority of the remaining vote is E-Day or E-Day adjacent. In 2020 this took a few days to process, here it may be a case of hours because of the ballot size. The lagging vote then takes weeks, but this comparatively tiny pool only matters for tight races...which are the ones we usually pay attention to. If the race needs to wait of the long count, Newsom is in a world of danger.

Well, obviously, it's super unlikely, we'll get a tight race, but the margins are still interesting to watch. For instance, I'd like to know, if it is +20, +15 or +10.  So, if I understood you correctly, we'll get a result within ±1-2% in matter of hours after the polls are closed?

Yes. For context, I did a bit of digging for my DDHQ preview article coming out today. Joe Biden in 2020 had 65.1% of the vote after the 70% of pre-Eday vote and whatever else the counties had was  released before within 24 hours (earliest timestamp). Joe Biden's final margin was 63.5%. So once we see the millions of already processed votes, we will know the result within a MOE.

[Oryxslayer]

Yay! Exit poll!

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1437833387419516940

Time to set the clock for 11:01 PM EST, cause that is when it will probably be called. Boston and Cleveland mayors will be more interesting contests tonight.

[Oryxslayer]

/snip
(as of about 1:00 PT) Looks like terrible ED turnout in OC.

This doesn't surprise me at all. In-person voting was never gonna be a significant factor, especially in an off-year election when everyone is mailed a ballot

Like I said, expect 75% or more of the vote to be mail or other pre-election forms tracked by the PoliticalData numbers.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437893465430380544?s=20

The CA GOP sucks so much lmfao.

Question for those who follow international politics: are there any other major nations in the world where the largest region/state in that nation has such an ineffective,dumb, and weak 2nd party as ca and the gop?

It seems unprecedented

Bavaria is the second largest state in Germany and its a one-party monopoly. Plenty of other examples, but that's the obvious one. Usually when a party dominates a large area it has a weaker than average showing in the majority of the rest...which is accurate.

[Oryxslayer]

Newsom will be making a statement right when the polls close.

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1437967394295586821?s=20

Let's hope he takes a well-deserved victory lap.

yea congrats on winning a D+30 state as a democrat

Y'all picked this fight

If you challenge Kevin Durant to a basketball game, you shouldn't be the one complaining when he shows up with five stars from the various teams he played for and stomps your five into the dust.

[Oryxslayer]

They say too early to call with a No lead cause they are cowards when it comes to nonpartisan races.


Oh and btw, the exit poll released the partisan ID of their respondents. It's like 8 points less dem than the tracker we know from earlier.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW, No has a good chance of beating Newsom's 2018 result, according to my benchmarks. He's doing worse in rurals and valley, but much better along the coast - and yes I am accounting for the E-Day.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, Larry Elder is winning counties in both the Bay Area and Sacramento metro, so looks like he will sweep that map.


But the second ballot has 3.5 million votes less that the first, with 6 million total.

[Oryxslayer]

The news networks have No winning Inyo EV for those who care about that.

 

Solano on NYT is almost certainly misentered results. Hope they fix it sooner than later.

theres a few errors on all sites right now - different ones strangely.

[Oryxslayer]

Paffrath ahead in SF - Elder sweep denied?

[Oryxslayer]

NBC took long enough, called for No.

[Oryxslayer]

Elder actually half-conceded

[Oryxslayer]

Present sum totals of recall data by locality - and district parts - within Orange County. See this for the guy who wanted to know about how their community voted.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW, here the correct map of LA counties Yes/No vote. The previous map apparently had some precinct changes that had not been published, so the joining of the data was faulty. The resulting breakdown is  a much more recognizable divide.

Oh, and the Hispanic areas are among the fiercest No precincts.