Virginia 2005 Gubernatorial Election

[??????????]

How are the Attorny General and Lt. Governor races shaping up?

I'm not so sure about the Attorney General's race, but Bill Bolling (the Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor) is widely expected to beat the Democrat Leslie Byrne soundly in November.  The contest between her and Bolling is one of a traditional liberal versus a traditional conservative.  This being Virginia, it is self-evident what the result will be.     

The LT Governor runs independent? How silly.

[AuH2O]

Don't underestimate McDonnell.

[Smash255]

When in doubt invoke Hitler.....

RICHMOND, Virginia (AP) -- The Republican candidate for Virginia governor is drawing fire for campaign ads that suggest his Democratic opponent is so averse to the death penalty he would have spared Adolph Hitler from execution.

The radio and TV ads feature victims' relatives who tearfully recount the crimes that killed their loved ones and say they don't trust Democrat Tim Kaine to administer the state's death penalty.

Kaine, who says his moral objections to capital punishment are rooted in his Roman Catholic faith, responded with an ad pledging to carry out death sentences "because it's the law."

One of the ads supporting Jerry Kilgore, Virginia's attorney general, cites a Richmond Times-Dispatch column that said Kaine had "suggested he would not favor sending even Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin or Idi Amin to the gallows."

A commercial featuring death penalty proponent Stanley Rosenbluth has him looking into the camera and saying: "Tim Kaine says Adolf Hitler doesn't qualify for the death penalty. This was one of the worst mass murderers in modern times."

Some Jewish leaders said Friday that the commercials trivialize the Holocaust and should be withdrawn.

Kilgore spokesman Tim Murtaugh defended the ads and said that Rosenbluth spoke from his heart.

Kaine, the lieutenant governor, is seeking to succeed Gov. Mark R. Warner, a fellow Democrat who is barred by the state constitution from seeking a second consecutive term this fall.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/10/14/virginia.governor.ap/index.html

[Frodo]

How are the Attorny General and Lt. Governor races shaping up?

I'm not so sure about the Attorney General's race, but Bill Bolling (the Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor) is widely expected to beat the Democrat Leslie Byrne soundly in November.  The contest between her and Bolling is one of a traditional liberal versus a traditional conservative.  This being Virginia, it is self-evident what the result will be.     

The LT Governor runs independent? How silly.

What are you talking about?

Don't underestimate McDonnell.

I'm not. 

[??????????]

Frodo,

Does the governor and lt governor run on the same ticket or are they seperate?

[MHS2002]

They are elected separately.

[Frodo]

Frodo,

Does the governor and lt governor run on the same ticket or are they seperate?

So that's what you meant.....

As MHS2002 has said, they are elected separately -not in partisan sets.  Virginia has had in the past a mix of Republicans and Democrats in these top three seats in the executive branch. 

[Moooooo]

Kaine has a new response to Kilgores 'Stanley' ad.  He also put out an ad titled 'Kilgores Sugar Daddy', which criticizes Kilgore for excepting 600,000 dollars from a drug company under investigation for Medicaid fraud.  The new response is much better than the first two, but still pretty weak.  The 'Sugar Daddy ad' is catchy, but wont make much of an impact, IMO.

Check out the new ad's here:

http://www.kaine2005.org/media/tv/

[CARLHAYDEN]

Frodo,

Does the governor and lt governor run on the same ticket or are they seperate?

So that's what you meant.....

As MHS2002 has said, they are elected separately -not in partisan sets.  Virginia has had in the past a mix of Republicans and Democrats in these top three seats in the executive branch. 

Kaine ran two points behind Warner four years ago, barely clearing 50% of the vote (the only other candidate that year was a Libertarian).

This year the third candidate running is a liberal who is a real threat to Kaine's vote in northern Virginia (the DC suburbs).

[Moooooo]

New SUSA Poll 10/17/05:

Kaine 47%
Kilgore 45%
Potts 4%
Other 2%
Undecided 2%
-------------------

Analysis: In an election for Governor of Virginia today, 10/17/05, 3 weeks to the vote, the outcome between Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Jerry Kilgore is too-close-to-call, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 750 likely Virginia voters, conducted for WSLS-TV in Roanoke and WUSA-TV in Washington DC. Kaine today gets 47% of the vote, up 4 points from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago. Kilgore gets 45% today, down 1 point in 4 weeks. Independent Russ Potts is unchanged at 4%. In 4 polls since 6/30/05, Kilgore has steadily declined, going from a 10-point advantage in June to a 2-point deficit today. Election day is November 8th. Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is term limited; the Governor's seat is open. Kilgore gets 81% of the Republican vote. Kaine gets 90% of the Democrat vote. Kilgore leads by 8 points among men, unchanged from last month. Kaine today leads by 12 points among women, up 10 points in the past 4 weeks, up 17 points from SurveyUSA's first tracking poll in June. Kaine support strongest among most educated voters, pro-choice voters, and voters in urban areas and D.C. suburbs. Kilgore leads by 61 points among conservatives, but trails by 34 points among moderates.

[Sarnstrom]

Those Hitler ads are backfiring...

[AuH2O]

Personally, I'd rather win the election than be ahead by 2% in a poll, but hey, Kaine should be glad he's in it at all.

[Moooooo]

My guess:  The political climate in general isnt too friendly for Republicans right now and undecided voters are breaking for Kaine.  Bush compounded the problem with the Miers nomination which will depress conservative turnout (these people just arent that motivated right now).  The smear campaign seems to be backfiring too.  Apparently voters are not welcoming negative ad's from either candidate.  It will all come down to GOTV.  Kaine will need to be polling at least 3-4 points ahead by election day or he will come up short.

[nini2287]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a lower than expected turnout on Election Day, this campaign has gotten incredibly negative lately, it's worse than any of the Melissa Brown races I've seen.

[Keystone Phil]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a lower than expected turnout on Election Day, this campaign has gotten incredibly negative lately, it's worse than any of the Melissa Brown races I've seen.

Wow. Throwing PA 13 into this was really smart. 

[nini2287]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a lower than expected turnout on Election Day, this campaign has gotten incredibly negative lately, it's worse than any of the Melissa Brown races I've seen.

Wow. Throwing PA 13 into this was really smart. 

Oh, I couldn't resist.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Kaine needs to be ahead by four points in the polls before election day.  Of course, that will happen if the polls continue their long-term trends (a 10pt. deficit in March to a two point lead in October).  I expect it to be a two pt. or less race.  Neither will get over 50%.

[Blank Slate]

Although this morning their are "rumours" floating around that Potts is getting ready to leave the race and endorse Kaine.  (Potts is denying the rumours, but apparently some of the so-called "rumours" are coming from inside Potts' campaign). 

If Potts does leave the race that will help Kaine, a great deal, IMO. (And to think a week ago I was ready to write Kaine, off).   

Yeah the "Hitler" ads out of Kilgore didn't help him.

I think it's time for some posting of some predictions of county by county (and in VA city by city) maps of the outcome on November 8th.     I'm too lazy to submit one right now.

[minionofmidas]

Lots of negative campaigning you say? Only between Kilgore and Kaine or are they attacking Potts too?
Because if it's the first, I'd like to place a bet on Potts getting over 5% right now.

[Moooooo]

Although this morning their are "rumours" floating around that Potts is getting ready to leave the race and endorse Kaine.  (Potts is denying the rumours, but apparently some of the so-called "rumours" are coming from inside Potts' campaign). 

If Potts does leave the race that will help Kaine, a great deal, IMO. (And to think a week ago I was ready to write Kaine, off).   

Where did you hear these 'rumors'?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Here's an article from the Norfolk Pilot I think everyone should read:

http://home.hamptonroads.com/stories/story.cfm?story=93408&ran=120909&tref=po

I think I can guess who Georgie Smith is going to vote for for Govenor.

[minionofmidas]

A Black woman, in the current political climate?
Yep. Doesn't take a lot.

[Blank Slate]

Although this morning their are "rumours" floating around that Potts is getting ready to leave the race and endorse Kaine.  (Potts is denying the rumours, but apparently some of the so-called "rumours" are coming from inside Potts' campaign). 

If Potts does leave the race that will help Kaine, a great deal, IMO. (And to think a week ago I was ready to write Kaine, off).   

Where did you hear these 'rumors'?

From www.politics1.com.

And although I know Ron Gunsberger, who is the web administrator and author of that website, is liberal, he is generally very liable about political news, including about "rumors" that are floating around about candidates.   

[Sam Spade]

Right now the race has changed to being a definite toss-up.  Awaiting further details and more polls.

[TheresNoMoney]

If Potts drops out and endorses Kaine (he hates Kilgore), it could do a lot towards swinging the race to Kaine. Let's hope it happens.