2018 Senate Rankings

[mcmikk]

I can barely believe I'm doing this, this was a race I had at Likely R when the cycle began, and I'm going against Sabato's final pick here, but let's face it, Missouri has surprised us all this cycle. Special State Legislative Elections held in February and June featured Dems massively outperforming expectations. The incumbent governor was forced into resignation. And quite frankly, Republican Senate Candidate Josh Hawley has done what he could to hand this race over to the Dems. I'm ultimately putting a lot of faith and trust in Marist here, but hey, it's time to be bold.

Missouri moves to Lean D.

Character development.

[Kodak]

Final average of all non-internals conducted after Labor Day.





My predictions:

1. Rosen will win.
2. Montana will be closer.
3. Hirono will win.
4. The map is probably right about everything else.

[The Free North]

Final average of all non-internals conducted after Labor Day.



My predictions:

1. Rosen will win.
2. Montana will be closer.
3. Hirono will win.
4. The map is probably right about everything else.

The colors

My eyes

[Green Line]

It’s a wave election, folks.  Republicans narrowly pick up ND but lose all other tossups in addition to one of TN and TX.  I will go with TN as the upset pick.  Republicans totally blew it in the last two weeks by ramping up on the outrageous culture war attacks instead of talking about the economy.  Too bad, not sad!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Halloween update.

dude, I am putting you on ignore if you keep concern trolling about wv. Manchin is fine, literally no one doesnt think so.

Laugh all you want, but this map was better than most of the other chumps.

[Bidenworth2020]

Halloween update.

dude, I am putting you on ignore if you keep concern trolling about wv. Manchin is fine, literally no one doesnt think so.

Laugh all you want, but this map was better than most of the other chumps.

this was a solid map, no doubt

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IL, MI, MN, NH and VA
AL, AZ, CO, NM, NC and TX
KS, ME, IA and KY

[adrac]

I understand at least one of you are trolling, but this is the 2018 thread.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one is trolling AZ, CO, NM and TX are tossups due to Latino corridor and ME and IA are safe R

[cvparty]

No one is trolling AZ, CO, NM and TX are tossuos due to Latino xorridor and ME and IA are safe R

well the election ended 5 months ago, so...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a shame: 2020, 2022 and 2024, next three election cycles favor Dems due to unpopular Trump and his legacy

[Politician]

Scenario 2: Pyrrhic Republican Victory

In the House, Democrats pick up 15 seats, +-5. That isn't enough to take over, but they still pulled in a reasonable 5 point PV win. They can complain about gerrymandering to their heart's content, as well they should: it likely screwed them over. Still, they had the energy for a Blue Wave, so seeing it fizzle out into only a Blue Puddle must have been very disappointing.

In the Senate, Republicans expand their narrow majority. They did lose Nevada, but it was a Clinton state anyway. They lost Arizona, but they can blame that squarely on Ward. What they were able to do was hold Tennessee, and not only pick up Indiana and Florida, but also Missouri and North Dakota. McCaskill was only a point or two from being the luckiest woman in politics ever, but close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and proportional representation. There's still the Mississippi Special, but Hyde-Smith looks like an overwhelming favorite against Espy.

However, while this wasn't a good night for Democrats, the GOP didn't walk away unscathed either. They only have one more Senate seat now than they did when Trump was sworn in, and their House majority was reduced to the single digits. With the Freedom Caucus, that kind of "win" will make governing almost impossible. Democrats lick their wounds, get back up, and prepare for their next chance in 2020.



tldr: Dems come kinda close, but don't take the house. In the Senate, GOP takes everything Tilts Democratic and worse while splitting the Leans 50/50 with Dems.

Funny how this is exactly what actually happened in the Senate